56 percent of Americans think Obama will win 2012 presidential election

Fifty-six percent of Americans think President Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36 percent who think Republican challenger Mitt Romney will win, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll released on Tuesday.

The May 10-13 poll also shows that 81 percent of Democrats predict Obama will win the November election, compared to 68 percent of Republicans who believe that Romney will win.

Among the independents, 58 percent believe that Obama will be successful in his bid to seek reelection, compared to 31 percent who predict a Romney win, the poll finds.

It is unclear why Americans are more inclined to predict an Obama win than a Romney victory, though the two virtually tied in the latest May 8-14 Gallup's election polling that showed Obama only leading by 46-45 percent to Romney.

It may be that American voters recognize the advantages Obama enjoys as the incumbent, and that historically, presidents seeking re-election usually win, the Gallup said in a report on the polling.

For example, in March 2004, when President George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger John Kerry were about tied in voter preferences, more said Bush (52 percent) than Kerry (42 percent) would win. Or, Americans may expect in the months between now and the election that conditions in the United States will improve, which would make the incumbent's re-election more certain.

Interestingly, a June 2008 Gallup poll found that 52 percent of American voters predicted Obama would win, compared to 41 percent who believed Republican challenger John McCain would prevail. By October 2008, weeks after the financial crisis, Americans were more certain Obama would win that election, 71 percent to 23 percent, the Gallup said.

Including the 2008 election, Americans' predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate, the Gallup added.

The May 10-13 poll was based on telephone interviews conducted with 1,012 American adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. It has an error margin of about 4 percent.

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