South Africa ripe for a coup

Recent developments within South Africa's military and government circles, combined with warnings from national intelligence, suggest the country may be facing a precarious period of political instability.

Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, revealed that a coup d'etat is one of the risks identified in the recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and redacted National Security Strategy (NSS) for the sixth administration. Speaking at a media briefing, Ntshavheni stressed that while no coup attempts had occurred in recent weeks, intelligence agencies continue to monitor individuals and groups who may be planning such actions.

"You need to identify and mitigate against it. One of the risks is the risk of coup d'état. We have identified it and put measures to mitigate against it," Ntshavheni said. She clarified that law enforcement agencies, not intelligence alone, are responsible for arrests related to national security threats.

The warning comes amid the controversy surrounding SANDF Chief General Rudzani Maphwanya's recent trip to Iran, where he made statements praising Iran's anti-terror efforts and reaffirming South Africa's solidarity with Palestine—remarks described by the presidency as "ill-advised" and potentially harmful to the country's foreign relations. Defence Minister Angie Motshekga, however, defended Maphwanya, insisting the trip was properly approved and his actions were not rogue.

Experts say the incident exposes cracks in civil-military relations and underscores the risk of military figures acting independently of civilian oversight. Opposition parties and civil society groups have criticised the general's statements as reckless, warning that such behaviour could embolden factions within the military or political elite.

Ntshavheni highlighted that the NIE provides an evidence-based assessment of strategic threats, including domestic instability, illegal migration, espionage, cyber threats, and transnational organised crime. The publication of the NIE and NSS was described as a "historic milestone" aimed at increasing transparency and strengthening national resilience.

"While we assure South Africans that no one has attempted a coup recently, the risk exists, and we continuously monitor and take action where necessary," Ntshavheni said. She stressed that national security is inseparable from human security, economic stability, democratic governance, and the protection of national interests.

Analysts now caution that with internal government tensions, controversial military actions abroad, and the intelligence-identified coup risk, South Africa is entering a period where the possibility of political unrest or an attempted coup cannot be discounted. The combination of unchecked military influence and growing domestic discontent may create fertile ground for destabilising actions if left unaddressed.

The release of the NIE and NSS underscores the need for vigilant oversight, cohesion between military and civilian authorities, and proactive engagement to safeguard South Africa's democratic institutions and prevent potential crises from escalating.