Mnangagwa faces litmus test

President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his Zanu-PF allies face a significant political test at the National Youth Day commemorations at the Zimbabwe International Exhibition Centre in Bulawayo tomorrow, as tensions over the increasingly contentious ED2030 campaign - widely seen as a bid to extend his presidency - continue to rise.

The commemorations, rooted in the 21st February Movement established to honor the late former President Robert Mugabe's birthday, will be addressed by Mnangagwa. Although the event is primarily focused on youth empowerment, the underlying political tensions and high-stakes contest over Mnangagwa's future will add a major dimension to proceedings.

The theme of the event, "Empower Youth, Secure the Future," will bring together thousands of young people from across the country. However, political observers expect the gathering to serve as a crucial barometer for Mnangagwa's leadership, particularly in light of his repeated denials—seven times this week alone—of any intentions to amend the constitution to extend his presidency beyond two terms.

Mnangagwa and senior party officials are already in Bulawayo for the commemorations, but the key question remains: Is the ED2030 campaign truly over, or is it merely shifting strategies?

Zanu-PF's factional battles will be on full display, with allies of Vice President Constantino Chiwenga closely monitoring whether Mnangagwa's supporters will continue pushing the 2030 slogan or if they will be silenced following the President's public disavowal of term extension plans earlier this week.

A senior Mnangagwa ally, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that the party's position on the issue remains unclear. "There is a party resolution on this matter, and a constitutional process had already begun. We will hear from senior comrades on how to proceed, but the President cannot just throw us under the bus like this and leave us exposed to those who want him out."

Meanwhile, a senior figure within Chiwenga's military-backed faction stated: "Tomorrow will be crucial; we want to see if Mnangagwa will allow his people to chant the 2030 slogan and how he reacts. If they continue, it means he is still backing them and misleading the nation. If they stop, it means he has finally silenced them. This event provides the best platform to gauge his true position."

While youth empowerment and investment initiatives will officially take center stage, the real focus will be on Mnangagwa's every move and statement. His response to any chants or signs of continued support for ED2030 will be analyzed as an indicator of his commitment—or lack thereof—to stepping down at the end of his term.

Overall, the National Youth Day commemorations in Bulawayo are set to be a pivotal event, not just in celebrating the role of young people in Zimbabwe's future, but also in shaping the political landscape within Zanu-PF as succession battles and power struggles intensify.