Mnangagwa in rude awakening

A dramatic no-show by 12 out of 16 regional leaders at the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) extraordinary summit convened by Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa has sparked concerns about the bloc's credibility and the confidence regional leaders have in Harare's leadership.

The summit, which was one of Mnangagwa's first major tasks as Sadc chairperson since assuming the role in August, was initially expected to address the political turmoil in Mozambique following disputed elections. However, the meeting ultimately shifted focus to the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

What was meant to be a critical moment for regional cooperation and solidarity ended up with only four heads of state in attendance, a decision that surprised many political analysts and observers. Among the missing leaders were South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema, all of whom sent lower-level representatives in their stead.

The absence of key figures such as Ramaphosa, who is at the helm of Southern Africa's most powerful economy, raised doubts about the summit's significance. Ramaphosa prioritized the G20 summit in Brazil, sending his deputy, Paul Mashatile, in his place. Without Ramaphosa's presence, the weight of Sadc's decisions was questioned by many.

Political analyst Ibbo Mandaza described the poor turnout as "unusual" for such an important meeting. "For a purported extraordinary and emergency meeting, it is highly unusual that there should be such poor attendance of heads of state," Mandaza told the Zimbabwe Independent.

The absence of Tanzanian leader Hassan, chairperson of the Sadc Troika, was particularly notable. Hassan instead sent Zanzibar leader Hussein Mwinyi. Also missing was Zambian President Hichilema, who had already skipped the August summit in which Mnangagwa assumed the Sadc chairmanship, highlighting the ongoing strain in relations between Zimbabwe and Zambia following Zimbabwe's disputed 2023 elections.

Planning and Coordination Issues

Walter Mzembi, former Zimbabwe Foreign Affairs Minister, pointed to poor planning as a key factor in the low turnout. He said that such an extraordinary summit should have been preceded by checks with regional leaders to confirm their availability. "I think there is an element of being presumptuous, thinking that once an extraordinary summit is called, everyone will automatically respond," Mzembi commented. He noted that the summit clashed with other major international events, such as the G20 summit, which further complicated attendance.

Mzembi emphasized that Zimbabwe should have lobbied heads of state more effectively and coordinated with embassies to ensure the availability of regional leaders. He argued that the summit's lack of sufficient attendance pointed to a fundamental flaw in its planning and execution.

Reuben Mbofana, another analyst, suggested that the low turnout reflected the lack of seriousness within Sadc. "The low turnout shows that the region doesn't take these meetings seriously," Mbofana said, adding that many leaders are likely aware that Sadc summits often result in little to no substantive outcomes.

Regional Leadership and Confidence

Beyond logistical missteps, some analysts have suggested that regional leaders may be withholding support for Mnangagwa's leadership due to concerns over his handling of domestic and regional matters. "The fact that only four leaders attended from a 16-member group is dismal. It may indicate that fellow heads of state have no confidence in Mnangagwa's leadership," Mbofana said.

This skepticism may also stem from Mnangagwa's controversial actions in Mozambique, where he prematurely congratulated Frelimo's Daniel Chapo on winning the presidential elections. His early endorsement came before the final results had been announced, raising questions about Zimbabwe's influence and impartiality in the region. The unrest that followed the disputed election results, which saw at least 30 people killed in clashes between Mozambican forces and civilians, further complicated Mnangagwa's position as Sadc chairperson.

Despite the controversy surrounding his leadership, Mnangagwa received some praise at the summit for his commitment to regional peace and stability. A communique released after the summit acknowledged his efforts, stating, "The Summit extended its appreciation to His Excellency Dr. Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, President of the Republic of Zimbabwe, and Chairperson of Sadc for hosting the extraordinary summit and for his commitment towards regional cooperation and attainment of peace, security, and stability in the region."

The low attendance at the Sadc extraordinary summit highlights ongoing concerns about the effectiveness and relevance of the bloc, as well as the challenges facing Mnangagwa's leadership. While the summit's agenda shifted from Mozambique to the DRC, the absence of key regional figures and the lack of substantive outcomes have raised questions about Sadc's ability to address pressing regional issues and maintain its credibility moving forward.