More trouble for Zimbabwe as Trump makes return

The incoming administration of Donald Trump in the United States has sparked significant interest across Africa, as analysts speculate on how his second presidency will affect the continent's security, trade, and aid landscape. Trump, now set to begin his second term after a historic political comeback, defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the 2024 elections, and is set for inauguration on January 20.

Known for his "America First" rhetoric, Trump has often tailored his policies around nationalism and isolationism, placing domestic interests above international alliances. His return to the Oval Office has prompted responses from global leaders, including those from Africa. Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa was among the first to extend congratulations, expressing readiness to engage with Trump to foster better relations. Mnangagwa's message highlighted Zimbabwe's interest in addressing long-standing tensions, particularly those arising from U.S. sanctions imposed over human rights and property rights issues.

"Congratulations to President-elect Donald Trump on your election victory. The world needs more world leaders who speak for the people," Mnangagwa posted on his official Facebook page. "Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you and the American people to build a better, more prosperous and more peaceful world."

Other African leaders, including Nigeria's Bola Tinubu, Egypt's Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Ethiopia's Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy, also offered congratulations to Trump. However, for Africa, his second term raises critical questions about the future of U.S.-Africa relations. The continent faces numerous challenges, from attracting foreign investment to addressing mounting security issues. Some analysts predict that Trump's administration may prioritize cooperation with "capable leaders," but this focus could lead to reduced U.S. engagement in Africa, particularly in terms of trade, aid, and investment.

Peter Pham, Trump's former special envoy to the Great Lakes and Sahel, indicated in an interview for The Africa Report that the incoming administration would likely seek cooperation with "capable leaders" on the continent, but would also scale back investments, aid programs, and trade agreements that have supported Africa in the past. This aligns with Trump's historical stance on economic protectionism, which has led to concerns that U.S. investment in Africa, which peaked at US$22 billion in 2023 under President Joe Biden, may be significantly reduced under Trump's leadership.

"The soon-to-be president has more of a protectionist, insular outlook than Biden," noted the BBC in an article titled What Does Trump's Win Mean for Africa? "There are concerns Trump might roll back on this investment and trade. One of the slogans for his first term was America First."

Ricky Mukonza, a public affairs professor at Tshwane University, reflected on the implications of Trump's foreign policy for Africa and Zimbabwe in particular. Mukonza suggested that under Trump, the U.S. would likely continue to prioritize its own interests, with African nations' concerns being relegated to secondary importance. He argued that aid to the continent might be reduced, and that Zimbabwe's status as a "peripheral issue" would likely remain unchanged, with sanctions on the country likely staying in place.

As President Biden's tenure winds down, the U.S. has rejoined the African Development Bank-led dialogue, aiming to help Zimbabwe address its US$21 billion debt. It remains uncertain whether Trump's administration will continue to participate in this dialogue.

Political analyst Reuben Mbofana believes that Trump's isolationist policies will mean Africa continues to be a lower priority for the U.S. "We have already had a Trump administration before, and so we already know what to expect. Trump is an isolationist. He wants the U.S. to revert to its pre-World War I ‘splendid isolation' era," Mbofana said. "Under the first Trump administration, we saw the U.S. withdrawing or scaling down from key institutions and agreements. When it came to Africa, Trump never had any time for us. He never even visited a single African state."

Mbofana further warned that Africa could expect similar policies in Trump's second term, with a potential rollback of beneficial investment deals, including those related to aid and trade. Trump's stance on HIV/AIDS, for example, may impact vital funding for health initiatives, including those facilitated by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, which has provided billions of dollars to developing countries.

Another key aspect of Trump's second term is his focus on curbing illegal immigration. Throughout his first presidency, Trump had indicated that he would not renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) when it expires next year. AGOA, established in 2000, allows African countries to export goods to the U.S. duty-free, a benefit that has facilitated trade between the two regions.

To counter growing Chinese influence in Africa, Trump introduced the Prosper Africa initiative in 2018, aimed at encouraging U.S. companies to invest in the continent. However, the future of this initiative under his second term is unclear, as his protectionist policies could hinder African nations' access to U.S. markets and reduce the flow of American investments into the region.

As Trump prepares for his second term, the outlook for U.S.-Africa relations remains uncertain. With the continent facing numerous challenges, including political instability, economic struggles, and security threats, the actions of the incoming administration will play a pivotal role in shaping Africa's future engagement with the U.S. and its role in global geopolitics.