Conflict-ridden political gamesmanship looms

Zimbabwe's political landscape is set to be shaped by intense dynamics throughout 2025, with key developments including an intensified push to extend President Emmerson Mnangagwa's term beyond 2028.

The ruling Zanu-PF party is expected to aggressively pursue the implementation of a resolution to extend Mnangagwa's term until 2030, despite his earlier statement that he would step down in 2028. Zanu-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa has indicated that the party will move forward with this resolution, citing Mnangagwa's strong track record.

Political analysts, including Associate Professor Ricky Mukonza from Tshwane University, predict that the debate surrounding Mnangagwa's extended tenure will dominate Zimbabwe's political arena. Mukonza stated, "The main political action in Zimbabwe will be mainly from within the ruling Zanu-PF. There is going to be a continuation of the pro-2030 agenda versus those against it."

The push for a term extension has already stirred factional tensions within Zanu-PF. In December 2024, Zanu-PF National Secretary for Youth Affairs, Tino Machakaire, made sweeping changes to the party's youth wing, igniting disputes over constitutional alignment. His move has been seen as an attempt to align the party with its 2030 agenda, though his deputy, Kindness Paradza, has criticized these changes as unconstitutional.

These tensions are expected to escalate, as factions loyal to Mnangagwa and his deputy Constantino Chiwenga vie for control within the party. Security sector realignments are anticipated as Mnangagwa seeks to consolidate power by replacing figures he distrusts with loyalists.

Mnangagwa has already made significant changes in the security sector. Former police commissioner general Godwin Matanga was replaced by Stephen Mutamba, a known Mnangagwa ally. Similarly, Isaac Moyo was relieved of his role as CIO boss and replaced by Fulton Mangwaya. These shifts are seen as part of a broader strategy to secure Mnangagwa's hold on power.

Deputy Director of Army Public Relations, Lieutenant Colonel Tichafa Mungofa, noted that these changes are likely to fuel internal party tensions, with those opposing Mnangagwa's 2030 agenda using more subtle approaches to push back.

Meanwhile, the government's clampdown on civil society organizations (CSOs) continues, with ZimRights reporting that 94% of CSOs are under increased state surveillance. Mnangagwa's administration has been criticized for pushing forward the Private Voluntary Organisations Bill, which seeks to curtail CSO activities. International critics, including the African Development Bank, have condemned the move as stifling democratic freedoms.

On the international front, Mnangagwa's re-engagement drive with Western powers has faltered, with the US and EU maintaining sanctions due to Zimbabwe's slow pace of political reforms. Analysts believe that Mnangagwa's reluctance to undertake genuine reforms may delay the country's reintegration into the international community.

As Sadc chairperson, Mnangagwa faces challenges with Mozambique, where tensions remain high following disputed elections. Mnangagwa's premature congratulations to Daniel Chapo, despite Mozambique's electoral body not yet announcing the results, have led to accusations of interference. South Africa has urged for inclusive dialogue, contrasting Mnangagwa's stance.

With the internal challenges within Zanu-PF and escalating regional issues, Zimbabwe's political dynamics are expected to remain volatile, with significant implications for the nation's governance and stability.