SA in record-high grain exports to Zimbabwe

The Port of Durban is currently receiving a shipment of imported white maize, marking the first import of the grain since March 2017 when South Africa was grappling with a severe drought.

The African Baza, a bulk carrier sailing under the Bahamas flag, is offloading 23,700 tons of white maize produced in the US. Another vessel carrying 46,000 tonnes of white maize is expected to arrive in February, according to Dr. André van der Vyver, executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota).

The move to import maize is driven by poor crop yields and record-high grain exports to Zimbabwe in 2024. During the 2023/24 production year, South Africa saw a significant decline in grain and oilseed production. Specifically, maize production dropped approximately 22.5% and soybean production fell by 33.5% compared to the previous year.

In November 2024, the Crop Estimates Committee projected white maize production at just over six million tonnes, a 29.3% decrease from the previous year. Yellow maize production was estimated at 6.716 million tonnes, down 15.4% from the previous year.

"These products should last until approximately March/April 2025 before the new crop, planted in November and December 2024, becomes available again," Van der Vyver noted.

As early as February 2024, it became evident that South Africa would need to import both yellow and white maize, along with soybeans. The drought's impact extended beyond South Africa's borders, with strong demand from Zimbabwe for both white and yellow maize.

Earlier in April, a shipment of Argentinian yellow maize was offloaded at the Port of Cape Town. To date, Sacota's multi-national grain trading members have imported approximately 518,000 tonnes of yellow maize.

Steady increases in JSE-traded maize and soybean prices have been observed, with prices continuing to rise. By December 2024, yellow maize reached R5,431 per tonne, a 43% increase from February 2024, while white maize soared to R6,670 per tonne, a 70% jump. Although prices have come down slightly, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo cautioned that higher white maize prices may persist into the first quarter of 2025, with relief expected only in the second quarter.

Van der Vyver highlighted that imports are likely to continue until the end of April 2025. Good rainfall has been received for the new production season, and most planting has been completed.

"After last year's drought, not only farmers but the entire country is desperately hoping for an average crop. This will stabilize old crop price increases and bring lower prices with the new crops," Van der Vyver said.

However, he cautioned that the verdict remains uncertain until the new crop is harvested. South Africa's local maize demand stands at around 11.7 million tonnes per season, with cross-border exports averaging about 1.5 million tonnes annually.

"Indications are that the maize industry will end the season with 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes, which is barely enough to ensure a continuous supply in the pipeline," Van der Vyver noted.

A lower supply could further push maize prices upward, negatively impacting consumers. White maize remains a staple food for many South Africans, while yellow maize and soybeans are crucial for the broiler industry. Government intervention is necessary to support the staple food supply in a timely manner, says Van der Vyver.