Mnangagwa loyalists defiant on 2030

President Emmerson Mnangagwa's home province, Midlands, has defied the leader's recent declaration that he will step down in 2028, with local loyalists vowing to press ahead with their controversial push to extend his presidency until 2030.

Last week, Mnangagwa met with local editors and reiterated his stance that he would adhere to the constitution and not seek to extend his term of office. The president's remarks were aimed at quelling rising opposition to the notion of a term extension, which had been promoted by some of his closest allies within the Zanu-PF party.

However, Mnangagwa's loyalists in the Midlands have refused to back down, insisting that the agenda to keep him in office until 2030 remains intact. Speaking at the launch of a war veterans' residential stands scheme in Gweru on Thursday, Midlands Provincial Affairs Minister Owen Ncube declared that the province would remain steadfast in its support of the controversial resolution passed at the party's annual conference in Bulawayo last year.

"The voice of the people is the voice of God," Ncube said, reaffirming his commitment to Resolution Number 1, which mandates Mnangagwa to lead the country until the attainment of the National Vision 2030. "Our nation takes pride in the leadership of His Excellency the President, a decorated freedom fighter who survived the death penalty and continues to guide our nation."

Ncube, often referred to as "Touch Bomber" due to his combative political style, is known for his influence in the Midlands province and his loyalty to Mnangagwa. He was placed on the U.S. sanctions list due to allegations of human rights violations, adding to the controversy surrounding his position.

While Mnangagwa has consistently distanced himself from the 2030 agenda, his silence regarding his loyalists' continued support for the term extension has raised questions. Last week, a group of intoxicated Zanu-PF youth also sang songs celebrating the 2030 agenda during the Youth Day celebrations in Bulawayo, further fuelling speculation that Mnangagwa may be secretly backing the plot.

Political analysts have cast doubt on the sincerity of Mnangagwa's claims that he intends to step down in 2028, pointing to his lack of action in rebuking his supporters who are pushing for a constitutional amendment to allow him to extend his term. Methuseli Moyo, a Bulawayo-based political analyst, suggested that Mnangagwa can only be taken seriously if the party or the president himself issues a clear statement denouncing the push for an extended presidency.

"Until the party or the president himself rebukes them emphatically, the speculation and mistrust will persist," Moyo said. "Succession politics can be destabilising if not well managed, and the transition needs to be clear and well-communicated."

Rejoice Ngwenya, another political commentator, echoed similar concerns, noting that while the current constitution limits Mnangagwa to two terms, an amendment could pave the way for a term extension. "National sentiment is against this 2030 nonsense, and if the voice of the people is the voice of God, then Mnangagwa ought to listen to God," Ngwenya said.

Pedzisai Ruhanya, a political analyst, pointed to the role of Zanu-PF's security apparatus in determining succession, suggesting that if the balance of forces within the party and military changes, the 2030 agenda could be dropped. "Zanu-PF has never determined the politics of transition," Ruhanya said, referring to past political shifts in 2002, 2008, and 2017 that were driven by the security sector.

The ongoing debate over Mnangagwa's future has raised concerns over the stability of the political transition in Zimbabwe. As loyalists continue to push for an extended presidency, questions remain about whether the president will take definitive action to quash the growing factionalism within his party and ensure a peaceful and constitutional transition in 2028.