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South Africa risks another 2021-style uprising
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Former South African State Security Agency (SSA) director-general Thulani Dlomo has sounded the alarm over the country's deepening socio-economic crisis, warning that the mix of soaring unemployment, especially among youth, and poor governance could ignite civil unrest on the scale of the deadly July 2021 riots.
Speaking at a seminar in Durban on Thursday, April 24, focused on South Africa's political and economic outlook, Dlomo cautioned that the country was sitting on a "ticking time bomb" if urgent interventions are not implemented to address systemic failures.
"There is absolutely the possibility of another civil unrest on similar proportions to what we saw in July 2021," Dlomo said, referencing the widespread looting, destruction, and violence that left more than 300 dead and cost the economy an estimated R50 billion.
The 2021 riots, which erupted after the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma, exposed deep-rooted frustrations over poverty, inequality, and youth unemployment. Dlomo noted that despite repeated warnings from analysts and officials, the root causes of that unrest remain unaddressed.
According to the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey from Stats SA, South Africa's official unemployment rate stands at 31.9% - the highest globally - with the expanded definition, which includes discouraged job seekers, pushing it to 41.9%. Among youth aged 15 to 24, unemployment is a staggering 59.6%, and 39.4% for those aged 25 to 34.
"If you have a situation where 60% of young people are unemployed and there's widespread poverty, that is a recipe for disaster - a recipe for an uprising," Dlomo warned.
He stressed that the lack of effective governance and service delivery, combined with the marginalisation of young people, is creating a volatile situation ripe for exploitation. "Where there is high unemployment, corruption, and exclusion, your national security is compromised," he added.
President Cyril Ramaphosa recently echoed Dlomo's concerns. At the National Water and Sanitation Indaba in March, the President acknowledged that poor governance and service failures - especially in basic utilities like water - are fuelling frustration and could trigger widespread unrest.
He also raised alarm over the rise of "water mafias" - criminal groups sabotaging infrastructure and profiting through collusive water tanker contracts - warning that they were undermining government authority and worsening the service delivery crisis.
"These factors make for what is called a perfect storm," Ramaphosa said, adding that the protests already erupting over water shortages could escalate if meaningful action isn't taken.
Dlomo urged the government to develop comprehensive programmes aimed at reducing youth unemployment, keeping young people in education, tackling drug abuse, and promoting entrepreneurship.
"We are ignoring the signs," he said. "If we don't urgently address these socio-economic challenges, we risk repeating - or even exceeding - the tragedy of July 2021."
The seminar concluded with a call for stronger coordination between intelligence agencies, government departments, and communities to prevent the growing crisis from spiraling into nationwide instability.
Speaking at a seminar in Durban on Thursday, April 24, focused on South Africa's political and economic outlook, Dlomo cautioned that the country was sitting on a "ticking time bomb" if urgent interventions are not implemented to address systemic failures.
"There is absolutely the possibility of another civil unrest on similar proportions to what we saw in July 2021," Dlomo said, referencing the widespread looting, destruction, and violence that left more than 300 dead and cost the economy an estimated R50 billion.
The 2021 riots, which erupted after the jailing of former President Jacob Zuma, exposed deep-rooted frustrations over poverty, inequality, and youth unemployment. Dlomo noted that despite repeated warnings from analysts and officials, the root causes of that unrest remain unaddressed.
According to the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey from Stats SA, South Africa's official unemployment rate stands at 31.9% - the highest globally - with the expanded definition, which includes discouraged job seekers, pushing it to 41.9%. Among youth aged 15 to 24, unemployment is a staggering 59.6%, and 39.4% for those aged 25 to 34.
"If you have a situation where 60% of young people are unemployed and there's widespread poverty, that is a recipe for disaster - a recipe for an uprising," Dlomo warned.
President Cyril Ramaphosa recently echoed Dlomo's concerns. At the National Water and Sanitation Indaba in March, the President acknowledged that poor governance and service failures - especially in basic utilities like water - are fuelling frustration and could trigger widespread unrest.
He also raised alarm over the rise of "water mafias" - criminal groups sabotaging infrastructure and profiting through collusive water tanker contracts - warning that they were undermining government authority and worsening the service delivery crisis.
"These factors make for what is called a perfect storm," Ramaphosa said, adding that the protests already erupting over water shortages could escalate if meaningful action isn't taken.
Dlomo urged the government to develop comprehensive programmes aimed at reducing youth unemployment, keeping young people in education, tackling drug abuse, and promoting entrepreneurship.
"We are ignoring the signs," he said. "If we don't urgently address these socio-economic challenges, we risk repeating - or even exceeding - the tragedy of July 2021."
The seminar concluded with a call for stronger coordination between intelligence agencies, government departments, and communities to prevent the growing crisis from spiraling into nationwide instability.
Source - businesstech
