Mnangagwa faces political crossroads

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa is grappling with a complex political dilemma ahead of the ruling Zanu-PF party's annual conference set for 13 - 18 October in Mutare, as questions over his succession and ambitions to stay in power beyond his constitutional term limit intensify.

Mnangagwa, who has publicly declared he will not seek to extend his rule beyond 2028 in line with the Constitution, is nonetheless under growing scrutiny following Zanu-PF's 2023 resolution in Bulawayo that endorsed a plan for him to remain in power until 2030. That endorsement has sparked fierce debate within the ruling party and the broader political landscape, with some legal experts warning that any move to amend the Constitution to extend his tenure could amount to a "constitutional coup".

As the party conference approaches, insiders say Mnangagwa is weighing three contentious options: pursue a referendum or two to amend the Constitution - a risky move given widespread public discontent; use Parliament to push through an election postponement to stay in office - raising constitutional red flags; or abandon the 2030 bid altogether and prepare to step down in line with the two-term limit.

Central to this political storm is Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, the retired general who played a pivotal role in the 2017 military coup that brought Mnangagwa to power. Despite an earlier agreement that Chiwenga would succeed him, Mnangagwa is now seen to be working actively to block his rise - fearing that a Chiwenga presidency would not shield him and his allies from potential corruption investigations and asset seizures.

Ethnic dynamics are also said to be playing a role in the succession matrix. Mnangagwa's Karanga faction reportedly does not want to see another Zezuru leader ascend to the presidency, following the long rule of Robert Mugabe. Ethnicity remains a deeply influential factor in Zimbabwe's politics, especially when it intersects with state resources and access to power.

Complicating matters further is the emergence of Kudakwashe Tagwirei, a wealthy businessman and Mnangagwa confidant, who has been widely seen as a potential kingmaker or even presidential aspirant. Although Tagwirei denies harbouring political ambitions, sources say he believes his financial muscle could sway the party's succession battles. However, Chiwenga has allegedly blocked Tagwirei's attempts to gain entry into key Zanu-PF structures, including the powerful Central Committee.

Zanu-PF insiders also point to Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Philip Valerio Sibanda as a potential "dark horse" candidate. Mnangagwa tried to appoint Sibanda to the Zanu-PF politburo during the party's 2023 conference in Gweru, but was thwarted on constitutional grounds. Nonetheless, positioning Sibanda as a successor remains an option under consideration, particularly with his retirement expected later this year.

Despite his strategic military position, some party insiders say Sibanda's prospects are slim in the face of Chiwenga's relentless ambition and political clout. "Unless Mnangagwa goes all in to back Sibanda, it's unlikely he can match Chiwenga's power within the party and security apparatus," a senior official said.

The ruling party continues to be plagued by fierce succession infighting reminiscent of the chaotic end of Mugabe's 37-year rule, which culminated in the 2017 coup. As Mnangagwa navigates this fraught terrain, the stakes remain high - not just for Zanu-PF's internal future, but for the constitutional and democratic integrity of Zimbabwe.

Observers say how Mnangagwa chooses to handle the upcoming October conference will likely define not just his legacy, but the trajectory of Zimbabwe's post-liberation politics in the years ahead.