Has Mnangagwa played his joker too soon?

By removing Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe, a key military commander, President Emmerson Mnangagwa has boldly played his joker in the high-stakes political game of succession. This move is emblematic of a larger power struggle within Zimbabwe's ruling elite, one that sees Mnangagwa and Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga locked in a fierce battle for dominance. Just as a joker in a card game can drastically alter the course of events, Mnangagwa's daring decision could either be the ace he needs to reassert control or a high-risk gamble that backfires.

A joker, in the context of strategy, is a wild card - capable of changing the course of a game. It can disrupt the flow, create unexpected opportunities, and provide a sudden shift in power dynamics. Mnangagwa has certainly thrown this wildcard onto the table in his quest to regain full control over Zimbabwe's military command. By removing Sanyatwe, he aims to strip Vice-President Chiwenga of a key ally and potentially curb his influence over the security forces. This is a critical move in the ongoing power struggle that has seen a resurgence of tensions within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), leading to speculation about an impending “Week of Long Knives.”

The phrase “Night of the Long Knives” traditionally refers to the purge of potential rivals during Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Nazi Germany. It evokes a period marked by intrigue, betrayal, and intense power struggles - exactly what Zimbabwe is experiencing today. Mnangagwa's maneuvering suggests that he is preparing for a similar purge, removing those who pose a threat to his position, particularly as Chiwenga's faction continues to gain momentum.

The question now is: Has Mnangagwa played his joker too soon? The decision to dismiss Sanyatwe certainly catches the eye, but it may also catch opponents off guard, forcing them to reassess their strategies. In some games, playing the joker too early can leave you with few options in later rounds. In Zimbabwe's case, this means that Mnangagwa's power play could provoke a backlash from Chiwenga's supporters, escalating the internal feud and further destabilizing the already tense political landscape.

The unexpectedness of Mnangagwa's move could provide an element of surprise, potentially throwing off his rivals. Just as in card games, catching your opponent off guard can shake their confidence and make them second-guess their own strategies. The removal of Sanyatwe may force Chiwenga and his faction to reconsider their approach, perhaps leaving them scrambling for new alliances or even pushing them into making desperate decisions.

However, this bold play carries significant risks. Much like using a joker in a card game, the outcome is uncertain. If Mnangagwa's joker fails to deliver, he may face greater opposition and even internal disintegration. The political fallout from removing a key military figure like Sanyatwe could escalate into wider unrest, and the growing discontent within the military ranks might spill over into a more public confrontation.

With protests already being planned for March 31 and the specter of political instability looming large, Mnangagwa's gamble could tip the balance of power in either direction. If his move succeeds, he may successfully consolidate his position and neutralize Chiwenga's faction - ultimately regaining control over the military and the party. However, if it backfires, Mnangagwa risks further fragmentation of his already divided government, and the consequences could be far-reaching.

Ultimately, the joker card can be a game-changer, but only if played wisely. Mnangagwa's bold move is a clear signal that he is determined to outmaneuver his rivals. Whether or not this joker will prove to be a winning hand remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Zimbabwe's political landscape is set for a turbulent period, and the stakes have never been higher.