Uganda to have its Robert Mugabe by 2023

A Makerere University law professor has said that President Museveni will remain in power until the budding oil sector finally takes off.

Prof Joe Oloka-Onyango said the president would fight to stay in power at all costs.

"Ten years from now, we are likely to have a [Robert] Mugabe [Zimbabwean president] in Uganda," he said. Justifying his assertion, Oloka said that the next constitutional amendment would involve the removal of the age limit for presidential candidates to pave way for a 'life presidency'. Mugabe has led Zimbabwe for 33 years.

Oloka-Onyango's comments came during a public lecture organised by the Open Society Initiative for Eastern Africa (OSIEA), at Hotel Africana, on Wednesday. The dialogue focused on what oil exploration and production means for our politics and the economy.

Discussing a paper titled, 'Why Uganda needs a constitutional crisis: Limitations of institutional and legal reforms in Uganda's journey to Africa's newest oil producer', presented by Angelo Izama, an OSIEA fellow, Oloka-Onyango argued that the oil sector would be defined by the politics of President Museveni and the NRM party.

Article 102 (b) provides that a president shall be not be less than 35 years and not more than 75 years of age.

"There is no such thing as a [Brig Kainerugaba] Muhoozi project; Muhoozi has no chance to succeed his father as long as [Museveni] is still alive. The president does not see life after the presidency; he only sees life in the presidency," Oloka-Onyango said.

He predicted that the fate of the sector would be shaped by the culture of selfishness, corruption and suppression exhibited not only by President Museveni and his close associates, but by many Ugandans too.

"Ugandans have stopped thinking because of oil; they feel when oil starts flowing, the country's problems will end, which is not the case. So, we need to get our brains out of this oil box," he added.  

He also noted the need to decentralise power and decision making in the oil sector, stressing that the belief that everything has to start and end in Kampala would only entrench corruption and patronage.

"We are confronting the death of the Constitution; we can see the manifest all over the place. We shall not have an oil curse here, but what we are grappling with is a governance curse. The devil we have to deal with is within," he added.

Presenting his paper, Izama said the sector would be shaped by the character of the politicians at play rather than the presence of a legal or institutional framework.

"Institutions are good, but their survival and functioning will depend on the prevailing political environment under which they will be operating in," he said, adding that political patronage would define the sector.

Kabumba Busingye, a law lecturer at Makerere University, argued that unless the 'big man syndrome' was resolved, prudent management of the oil sector would remain an illusion.

"Ask any Ugandan where power belongs, and the answer will be either in the president or the army," he said.

On his part, former Buganda Katikkiro Dan Muliika called for a national dialogue, right from the grassroots, to sort out the country's challenges and guarantee prudent oil management.

However, a presidential assistant on research and information, Morrison Rwakakamba, rejected the pessimism portrayed by other speakers, noting that the government had put in place the necessary institutional and legal frameworks for the good management of the petroleum sector.