2017 Outlook by Tapiwa Mashakada,

In Dec 2015 I predicted that 2016 was going to be a tough year. Yes it was tough indeed but wait for 2017.  I think 2017 is going to be a melt-down year. We are going to see bond notes flooding the market and the withdrawal of the USD as domestic legal tender. Foreign exchange rationing will be introduced and banks will reintroduce FCA accounts.

The budget will remain in deficit as productive sectors will remain dormant for lack of any discernible economic stmulus package. The budget deficit will worsen as the state will begin to roll out patronage funds on projects to woo votes. Currently the budget deficit is USD1.2 billion. Voter registration and the preparation of polls will drain the economy. We should see inflation reaching 10 percent by Dec 2017.

There may be another humanitarian crisis as the state fails to provide basic social services. Zanu PF factionalism will reach crescendo levels rendering  government  dysfunctional. Fresh funding is highly unlikely in face of such macroeconomic instability. We may begin to see shortages of fuel and food as the nostro accounts gradually gets depleted. These are not far-fetched scenarios unless something drammatic happens in the body politic that will bring back sanity and confidence. Unfortunately Zanu PF is incapable of introducing economic reforms.

In short the economy will remain in its junk state in 2017. Which brings the question whether there is any covariance between economic collapse and votes. Empirical evidence of failed states shows that in a failed state, ruling parties retain power by dolling out state funds to social bases that are cloned to become voters of the ruling party. In the circumstances the state makes sure that a proportion of its population is ring fenced for purposes of voting. Take for example Zanu PF which has uploaded all its social bases onto the voters roll using state funds to create a loyal support base. Which are Zanu PF's social bases:

1. New farmers 500 000 with a multiplier effect. They benefit from Presidential Inputs scheme including the latest command agriculture.

2. 400 000 cotton farmers who are given cotton inputs for free in a vote buying manner

3. Artisinal Miners and Youths - another 500 000.

4. Food aid using Zimvac report. This food is dished out largely to Zanu PF supporters - probably a million people.

So whether the economy is performing or not the nature of party-state relations ensures that ruling parties win votes by using the budget or state resources to cushion particular targeted groups of society known as political social bases. I rest my case.