Zanu PF chaotic primary election a yard stick to weight general elections environment

On 24 April 2018, I wrote this piece, its necessary to revisit it as ZANU (PF) is holding its primary elections which we are told its chaotic;

Primary elections - are they the yardstick to what to expect in the general elections

As Zimbabwe goes to elections in the next few months, it is critical to analyse the two main parties, that is, the MDC Alliance and ZANU(PF) on how they use internal primary elections as a yardstick to what to expect in the harmonised elections.

Primary elections by their nature, are used to select candidates who will represent their party ahead of a national election. This is internal democracy at work. Some parties of course do not hold primary elections, they simple announce candidates or candidates announce themselves as the legitimate people to represent their parties.

As we have said before, the 2018 election is a two horse race between ZANU (PF) and the MDC Alliance, it is critical to look into how these two will use the primary elections as part of their election preparations.

MDC Alliance Primary elections

The MDC Alliance is made up of seven parties who are expected to contest elections in the 210 constituencies as per the Alliance agreement. This means that, the MDC Alliance does not have a clear formula on how to select their candidates, this is left to individual MDC Alliance members to decide. The MDC-T, the biggest Alliance partner, is expected to hold primary elections in almost all the constituencies allocated to it.

Normally, the MDC-T structures in a constituency would form an electoral college of electing a parliamentary candidate. Under the MDC-T constitution, the constituency is defined as a district. This means that, the District Assembly in a constituency will constitute the electoral college for the purposes of electing a candidate. Some District Assemblies have about 100 members while others have about 300 members depending on the size of the constituency. In short, in terms of the MDC-T constitution, its ordinary members elect their party candidate through their representatives or delegates to the District Assembly.

ZANU (PF) Primary Elections

ZANU (PF) primary elections involves all card carrying members in the constituency to elect their candidate to represent them in the harmonised elections. This means that, if there are 15 000 ZANU (PF) members in a constituency, all of them are expected to participate in the elections of choosing the party candidate. This is not left to party structures but to the entire membership. Normally, ZANU (PF) sets up polling stations in every ward to allow its members to vote for their preferred candidate.

What are the lessons

The ZANU (PF) primary elections give an indication on how the party will perform in the up coming elections. In a constituency where 25 000 voters are registered, if 4000 members vote in the ZANU (PF) primary elections, this is the likely number that it will get when harmonised elections are held around August 2018 without any rigging. It is critical for all of us to monitor the ZANU (PF) primary elections. It is impossible for ZANU (PF) to get 4000 of its members to participate in its primary elections then get 16 000 votes in the harmonised elections.

With respect to the MDC Alliance, it is difficult to tell on who will vote for it as its primary elections (MDC -T) are for its structures only not for its entire membership, that is, if they have card carrying members as opposed to supporters.

Rallies by their nature do not give a good account on how a particular party will perform in the 2018 elections as people attend rallies for different reasons. The ZANU(PF) primary elections will give it pointers on the prospect of winning a seat.

Assuming, less people vote in the primary elections in a particular constituency, ZANU (PF) will go back to its structures to encourage non registered votes to register to vote while this can not be said of the MDC Alliance which will bank on its huge crowds in rallies which by the way are not ward based.

It will be interesting for the MDC Alliance if it were to allow all its card carrying members in a constituency to vote for their candidate.