Mugabe's crackdown on political opponents

While dictators topple across North Africa, a new poll suggests that Zimbabwean autocrat Robert Mugabe has bolstered his power with a grim combination of violence, intimidation and fear.

The poll found a sharp decline in the number of Zimbabweans willing to express support for Mr. Mugabe's chief rival, the Movement for Democratic Change. At the same time, 89 per cent said they have to be careful what they say about politics, and a shocking 42 per cent of opposition supporters have witnessed people being killed or injured in political violence.

With a possible election looming, Mr. Mugabe's security forces have escalated their crackdown on political opponents, jailing and assaulting many of them. And the tactics appear to be working: Mr. Mugabe's party is now resurgent, fueled by controversial diamond revenue and firmly in control of the political agenda, analysts and pollsters say.

The survey of about 1,200 Zimbabweans, conducted in December and released on Friday, shows a sharp rise in the number who refuse to express a party preference. The biggest single bloc of those polled, 42 per cent, are now in this category. Other questions showed that most of these are sympathetic to the MDC, yet unwilling to express their preference.

"It's a barometer of the level of fear in the population," said Eldred Masunungure, director of the Mass Public Opinion Institute, a Zimbabwean organization that conducted the fieldwork for the poll commissioned by Freedom House, a U.S.-based group.

In the 2008 elections, the MDC defeated Mr. Mugabe's party, but withdrew from the race when its supporters were systematically beaten, injured or killed. It later agreed to enter a coalition government, but Mr. Mugabe retains most of the levers of power, including control of the police and military.

Support for the MDC, still the most popular party, has dropped dramatically from 55 per cent to 38 per cent in the past year as many of its backers shifted into the "undeclared" category. Only 17 per cent of Zimbabweans support Mr. Mugabe's party, ZANU-PF, yet his party is back on top of the political landscape, Mr. Masunungure said. "It is now dictating the pace of political development, and MDC is on the defensive."

Mr. Masunungure said a new diamond discovery in Zimbabwe – considered "blood diamonds" by some human rights groups – has funnelled millions of dollars into the hands of Mr. Mugabe's security forces, giving them the resources to bolster their political power. This has been a "game changer" for Mr. Mugabe, he said.

Three-quarters of Zimbabweans say the fear of violence will force people to vote for parties that they don't support, and 35 per cent say they have suffered politically motivated acts of intimidation, threats or harassment, the poll found.

"Zimbabweans live in a world of extreme consciousness of omnipresent political violence and intimidation," the survey report said.

In the latest case, 45 activists were arrested in Harare and charged with treason after they attended a meeting to discuss the street revolutions in North Africa. Two weeks after their arrest, they remain in jail.

"The signals from the state are that they do not accept any form of gathering that discusses anything that disturbs the status quo," said Alec Muchadehama, lawyer for the arrested activists. "It was intended to send a strong message: Don't even dare to dream about it."