News / National
'You will lose to Mugabe without unity'
22 Jul 2013 at 09:05hrs | Views
As Zimbabwe's on-again off-again coalition talks and momentum-saga continues, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and other forces opposed to President Robert Mugabe are unlikely to win against the Zanu-PF strongman in a fragmented structure, analysts say.
This comes as the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader and Welshman Ncube have fashioned "alliances" with Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn (MKD) leader Simba Makoni, Reketayi Semwayo of the Zanu Ndonga fame and Zapu's Dumiso Dabengwa.
But even, though, conditions for a united front against the ex-guerrilla movement - and one which has enjoyed 33 years of uninterrupted power by hook or crook - quite a number of disturbing, un-strategic and petty issues stand in the way of this cherished goal to unseat Mugabe.
Trevor Maisiri, an International Crisis Group analyst, decried the so-called "irreconcilable differences" between Ncube and Tsvangirai as testimony of deep-seated mistrust, and respect between the two opposition political protagonists, and emanating from eight year-old clashes when the labour-backed movement split.
"The failure of the MDC's to come together in one election pact is regrettable. Conventional wisdom says individualism when you are fighting on the opposition side is undesirable. However, there could be differences that are making it difficult for these parties to come together," he told the Weekend Post this week.
"This definitely benefits Zanu-PF given the possible split of the 'opposition' presidential vote," Maisiri said.
The South African-based commentator said although Tsvangirai seemed to be holding all the cards and has the popular support, he may fall foul of the former liberation movement's dodgy electoral processes as seen by the just-ended and chaotic security forces special vote, shambolic voters' roll and other shenanigans likely to advantage the status quo.
Pedzisai Ruhanya, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) director, also said it would have been in the interest of democracy and progress for Ncube, and Tsvangirai to forge an alliance in unseating Mugabe.
However, the coming in on board of Makoni -- who five years ago denied the MDC president an outright victory but has thrown his lot with the Zimbabwean PM - meant 2013 was a different ballgame altogether, if not a significant step for the battle-hardened Buhera native.
"While Ncube would have added flavour to the democratic cause, his absence may not matter as circumstances have changed with the coming on board of Makoni. He (the MKD leader) is a serious political brand with a solid constituency in Manicaland, judging by the way he was received by the people of Mutare as last weekend's rally," Ruhanya said.
And given the ex-Zanu-PF politburo member's background, the ZDI founder said, the western-trained former Finance minister had the clout and potential to "eat into the ex-majority party's support base" countrywide.
On the other hand, renowned academic and Sapes Trust founder Ibbo Mandaza believes Tsvangirai has wherewithal to win it alone - even, though, the forthcoming and make-or-break election was littered with banana peels.
"I think he can win it alone," he said.
However, questions still persist about the anti-Zanu-PF movement or element of Zimbabwean politics' prospects, especially in the wake of unnecessary bickering, brinkmanship and intolerant positions among the key political actors.
While the expectation was that Tsvangirai - as the main player and possible centre piece of this coalition – would have moved to openly court the other political movers and assert their role, and positions in a new dispensation and order, the highly-anticipated move has been met with muted responses, if not sheer tokenism.
As things stand, Ncube has publicly stated that no one has ever approached him for a serious discussion and he was not interested in a marriage of convenience.
To make matters worse, the MDC leader has allegedly torn into the PM, saying he was a "clueless leader" not fit enough to be president or lead the country, thus further deflating the hopes of a coalition ahead of July 31's polls.
"…after most of you are asking about the much publicised (and) so-called grand coalition, l would like to categorically make it clear that the MDC… (to which I belong) has never and will never oppose a coalition with any like-minded people to bring about a real, and genuine change to the people of Zimbabwe," the constitutional law professor said.
"We only hear of this so-called grand coalition in the media. Those who want a discussion around a coalition should make an effort to approach us through the contact persons we publicised in the media not so long ago. Tsvangirai and his group are only trying to deceive both the electorate and their funders to think that the MDC are the ones refusing a coalition," Ncube said, adding his one-time comrades must "for the sake of Zimbabwe leave the politics of deception and.... tell the people of Zimbabwe the truth around the issue of a coalition".
Further: "Tell the people that you have never approached the MDC in this regard because you don't know how to handle your internal political dynamics. Also, tell the people that you cannot meet the conditions of the MDC, that say no to violence… no to corruption and that demand for a collective decision-making system of leadership," he noted.
As Ncube thundered about the ghost of 2008 - and where people like Tsvangirai "suffered under the same misguided illusion that they will make it alone - there is a strong sense that this noble idea may suffer the same fate of five years ago and where a culture of greed, over-inflated egos, and outright ineptitude reared its ugly head to torpedo what seemed like an inevitable path.
Sadly, this has been Zimbabwe's tragic course of missed opportunities since 1980, hence Mugabe has been able to ride and rule roughshod.
At a recent rally, Ncube also warned of a "false revolution" under Tsvangirai and the risk of an "Egypt" - and where thousands demonstrated, and ousted the country's president.
While the ex-University of Zimbabwe professor may have a point, he also faces his own problems in his "coalition" as Dabengwa has declared that he would still contest the presidential election alone - an issue which raises serious questions about the insincerity of the parties involved and as the majority's dream looks set to be deferred, and hopes to unseat the octogenarian leader remain dimmer.
This comes as the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader and Welshman Ncube have fashioned "alliances" with Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn (MKD) leader Simba Makoni, Reketayi Semwayo of the Zanu Ndonga fame and Zapu's Dumiso Dabengwa.
But even, though, conditions for a united front against the ex-guerrilla movement - and one which has enjoyed 33 years of uninterrupted power by hook or crook - quite a number of disturbing, un-strategic and petty issues stand in the way of this cherished goal to unseat Mugabe.
Trevor Maisiri, an International Crisis Group analyst, decried the so-called "irreconcilable differences" between Ncube and Tsvangirai as testimony of deep-seated mistrust, and respect between the two opposition political protagonists, and emanating from eight year-old clashes when the labour-backed movement split.
"The failure of the MDC's to come together in one election pact is regrettable. Conventional wisdom says individualism when you are fighting on the opposition side is undesirable. However, there could be differences that are making it difficult for these parties to come together," he told the Weekend Post this week.
"This definitely benefits Zanu-PF given the possible split of the 'opposition' presidential vote," Maisiri said.
The South African-based commentator said although Tsvangirai seemed to be holding all the cards and has the popular support, he may fall foul of the former liberation movement's dodgy electoral processes as seen by the just-ended and chaotic security forces special vote, shambolic voters' roll and other shenanigans likely to advantage the status quo.
Pedzisai Ruhanya, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) director, also said it would have been in the interest of democracy and progress for Ncube, and Tsvangirai to forge an alliance in unseating Mugabe.
However, the coming in on board of Makoni -- who five years ago denied the MDC president an outright victory but has thrown his lot with the Zimbabwean PM - meant 2013 was a different ballgame altogether, if not a significant step for the battle-hardened Buhera native.
"While Ncube would have added flavour to the democratic cause, his absence may not matter as circumstances have changed with the coming on board of Makoni. He (the MKD leader) is a serious political brand with a solid constituency in Manicaland, judging by the way he was received by the people of Mutare as last weekend's rally," Ruhanya said.
And given the ex-Zanu-PF politburo member's background, the ZDI founder said, the western-trained former Finance minister had the clout and potential to "eat into the ex-majority party's support base" countrywide.
On the other hand, renowned academic and Sapes Trust founder Ibbo Mandaza believes Tsvangirai has wherewithal to win it alone - even, though, the forthcoming and make-or-break election was littered with banana peels.
"I think he can win it alone," he said.
However, questions still persist about the anti-Zanu-PF movement or element of Zimbabwean politics' prospects, especially in the wake of unnecessary bickering, brinkmanship and intolerant positions among the key political actors.
While the expectation was that Tsvangirai - as the main player and possible centre piece of this coalition – would have moved to openly court the other political movers and assert their role, and positions in a new dispensation and order, the highly-anticipated move has been met with muted responses, if not sheer tokenism.
As things stand, Ncube has publicly stated that no one has ever approached him for a serious discussion and he was not interested in a marriage of convenience.
To make matters worse, the MDC leader has allegedly torn into the PM, saying he was a "clueless leader" not fit enough to be president or lead the country, thus further deflating the hopes of a coalition ahead of July 31's polls.
"…after most of you are asking about the much publicised (and) so-called grand coalition, l would like to categorically make it clear that the MDC… (to which I belong) has never and will never oppose a coalition with any like-minded people to bring about a real, and genuine change to the people of Zimbabwe," the constitutional law professor said.
"We only hear of this so-called grand coalition in the media. Those who want a discussion around a coalition should make an effort to approach us through the contact persons we publicised in the media not so long ago. Tsvangirai and his group are only trying to deceive both the electorate and their funders to think that the MDC are the ones refusing a coalition," Ncube said, adding his one-time comrades must "for the sake of Zimbabwe leave the politics of deception and.... tell the people of Zimbabwe the truth around the issue of a coalition".
Further: "Tell the people that you have never approached the MDC in this regard because you don't know how to handle your internal political dynamics. Also, tell the people that you cannot meet the conditions of the MDC, that say no to violence… no to corruption and that demand for a collective decision-making system of leadership," he noted.
As Ncube thundered about the ghost of 2008 - and where people like Tsvangirai "suffered under the same misguided illusion that they will make it alone - there is a strong sense that this noble idea may suffer the same fate of five years ago and where a culture of greed, over-inflated egos, and outright ineptitude reared its ugly head to torpedo what seemed like an inevitable path.
Sadly, this has been Zimbabwe's tragic course of missed opportunities since 1980, hence Mugabe has been able to ride and rule roughshod.
At a recent rally, Ncube also warned of a "false revolution" under Tsvangirai and the risk of an "Egypt" - and where thousands demonstrated, and ousted the country's president.
While the ex-University of Zimbabwe professor may have a point, he also faces his own problems in his "coalition" as Dabengwa has declared that he would still contest the presidential election alone - an issue which raises serious questions about the insincerity of the parties involved and as the majority's dream looks set to be deferred, and hopes to unseat the octogenarian leader remain dimmer.
Source - weekendpost
