Tsvangirai facing political oblivion

THE whispers and the sniping have been around for years. He is "not clever" enough, he loves his golf too much and is brave, but not a strategist.

Zimbabwe's thrice-failed presidential contender, Morgan Tsvangirai, must surely be facing the real possibility of political oblivion following his party's crushing defeat in last week's election.

Even if the allegations of massive rigging are comprehensively proven, President Robert Mugabe has no reason to fear any serious challenge to his grip on power.

Some critics argue that the MDC leader's defining mistake was his decision to join a power-sharing government. As such, Tsvangirai enabled his rival to cling onto power at the moment when he was weakest.

Tsvangirai's move was certainly controversial at the time - and bitterly opposed by some of his closest MDC alies - but it was a noble move as Zimbabwe was in a deep crisis marked by an economic meltdown.

By joining a unity government, Tsvangirai seemed to be putting the broader interests of a bruised population ahead of his own. A more cynical and perhaps pragmatic politician might have gambled that he could profit from an ever-deeper national crisis.

But Tsvangirai's mistake was not in grudgingly agreeing to a power sharing with Mugabe, but in refusing to stand up for himself in government.

On the very first day and when army commanders refused to salute him as Prime Minister, Tsvangirai should have quietly stood up, told the visiting dignitaries that he was sorry they had come on a wasted journey and walked out of the deal.

That would have shown a few people.

By failing to do so, he signalled to Mugabe and Zanu-PF that he was a compliant, and junior partner in an abusive relationship, which endured until recently.

To extend that metaphor, Tsvangirai - the battered victim - kept talking up the close working rapport he had established with the 89 year-old, pontificating about reconciliation and hoping his partner would mend his ways, and democracy would follow.

Instead, Mugabe - by turns domineering, and contemptuously polite - blocked and continuously changed rules, until he finally stampeded Zimbabwe into an election on his terms.

Some say Tsvangirai should have pulled out when it was clear that Mugabe had no intention of allowing time for ample preparation, including the highly suspect voters' roll.

Instead, Tsvangirai went ahead and legitimised an election that he now describes as a sham.

Was it another noble move or a combination of naivety and over-confidence?

At some point soon that question may be answered by his own party activists, and - much further down the line - by Zimbabwean voters.