Trouble for Mugabe

Despite his seemingly invincible hold on power, behind the scenes President Robert Mugabe seems to be in trouble. He is plagued by serious health problems, old age and and there are reports that even those close to him, think he has now reached a dead-end.

Apparently a recent detailed "advisory note" to Mugabe from his close advisors has implored the president to take advantage of his history and incumbency to put his house in order and announce when he would be leaving. Mugabe's wife Grace is also said to be ailing.

The sources said Mugabe (87) is now in a quandary and his advisors were gravely concerned. The issues are said to be old age, health problems, ZANU PF infighting, the succession crisis, collapse of his election plans, growing impatience by SADC leaders, events in North and West Africa and the hardening of international opinion against his 31-year rule.

A few weeks ago one of Mugabe's key pillars of strength, CIO deputy director Mernard Muzariri, died of liver cancer and another key Mugabe ally, the Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander, General Constantine Chiwenga, going through a nasty divorce, was recently taken to China for urgent medical attention, apparently after suffering food poisoning.

There are reports that the Chinese are building a huge military complex on the outskirts of Harare which would have VIP medical facilities. If this happens it would mean Mugabe would not need to travel to Asia so much if the elections are held in 2013.

Mugabe himself has said, perhaps for self-serving reasons, that ZANU PF would disintegrate if he goes. The party, fractured and weakened by protracted infighting, is likely to break up along its regional and ethnic fault lines.

Mugabe's position is seen by those close to him and in top ZANU PF echelons as vulnerable after his skirmishes with SADC leaders following their decision at a recent summit in Livingstone to rein him in.

The sources said the only people remaining steadfast in support of Mugabe are state security service chiefs who are behind his strategy to go for early elections in hope that it would secure their future. Insiders say this is why top Air Force of Zimbabwe commander, Air Vice-Marshal Henry Muchena, who has supposedly "retired", will spearhead the ZANU PF election campaign. Muchena is working with former CIO director-internal Sydney Nyanhongo and other security agents to campaign for Mugabe and ZANU PF.

Top army commanders want Mugabe to stay for security of tenure and material comfort. Fearing Mugabe was going to be defeated during the 2008 elections, the commanders, including Chiwenga and several top generals, issued menacing remarks bordering on coup threats warning they would not allow Mugabe to be removed even through democratic elections.

Prior to that, in the run-up to the hotly-disputed 2002 presidential election has also made similar remarks and helped to retain Mugabe. During that election senior army commander Brigadier-General Douglas Nyikayaramba was deployed to campaign for Mugabe amid misleading claims he had resigned.

Although he was chosen as the Zanu PF candidate in the next presidential elections at the party conference last December in Mutare, Mugabe is set to lobby for reconfirmation since elections are no longer going to be held this year. This means Mugabe has yet another gruelling task to convince his restless party in December to endorse him as the candidate. In 2007 an extraordinary Zanu PF congress had to be held to sort out Mugabe's disputed candidacy. This led politburo heavyweights Simba Makoni and Dumiso Dabengwa to quit in protest.