'MDC-T infighting weakens Zanu-PF challenge'

Infighting within Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC which has culminated in another split of the 15-year-old political party has weakened the opposition party's fight against Zanu-PF, analysts have said.

The squabbles between senior members of the party have seen expulsions and counter expulsions of senior officials such secretary-general Tendai Biti and ex-treasurer general Elton Mangoma.

Now, the once vibrant party which led Zimbabweans through the historic food riots in 1999 has split into two groups; one led by Biti who are calling themselves the MDC renewal team and the main faction led by Tsvangirai.

Analysts say the split has weakened the MDC because many looked to the social democratic movement to end President Robert Mugabe's 34-year reign.

MDC's chances in the 2018 poll may now depend on the degree to which Zanu-PF will be able to reproduce the unity     of 2013 in 2018 while the liberation movement will be judged on its economic performance over the next four years.

On the other hand, if economic problems persist without clear policy solutions, many who voted for the ruling party in 2013 may withhold their vote in 2018.

Stephen Chan, a professor of International Relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, said neither factions of the MDC stood a chance of defeating the ruling party.

"I do not see any chance of success for either MDC faction in 2018," Chan said. "It will take at least 10 years before opposition party politics becomes viable again. Now is the moment once again for civil society, intellectuals, and church figures to act as restraining forces on a dominant Zanu-PF."

Piers Pigou, Southern Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, said the fragmentation of the opposition would unlikely result in the generation of a serious challenge to the revolutionary party in the short term.

"Any longer term prospects for this require a fundamental re-orientation from the politics of personality to issue-based foci underwritten by a return to nuts and bolts of organisation and mobilisation," Pigou said.

"In the circumstances, this is likely to necessitate a long-term engagement."

The split in the MDC started brewing even before the fateful July 31 elections which saw Tsvangirai lose to his arch enemy and former partner in the Government of National Unity (GNU) Mugabe.

Fissures in the 15-year-old party escalated in January when Mangoma penned a strong worded letter calling on Tsvangirai to step down as party president and allow for leadership renewal.

On April 26, the Biti-led group suspended Tsvangirai and other senior officials at a meeting attended by members of the national council.