News / National
Mugabe succession battle could turn uglier - analysts
26 Aug 2014 at 08:17hrs | Views
HARARE - Long-suppressed succession ambitions by warring factions in Zanu PF battling to replace President Robert Mugabe have now exploded, igniting a war that could get uglier as the party marches towards its crucial elective congress in December, analysts told the Daily News yesterday.
With several top officials lining up to grab key posts, analysts say the party's wartime leader Mugabe, 90, might have lost control of the 51-year-old movement.
Vice President Joice Mujuru is currently in a precarious position as hawks in her party have unleashed an unprecedented challenge to her post and faction. Her chances of retaining the influential second secretary post now hang in the balance.
The unbridled attack on the party's top hierarchy, including Mujuru herself and the secretary of administration Didymus Mutasa , hitherto regarded as untouchables, even by political featherweights such as deputy Foreign Affairs minister Christopher Mutsvangwa, bears testimony that Mugabe has lost control of the party, analysts said.
Uncensored and unfazed, Mutsvangwa has continued shooting from the hip, targeting senior officials whom he insist should face internal challenge come congress and casting aspersions on a rival faction's liberation war credentials.
While Mutasa's intention to stand in the internal elections as the national chairperson has already caused serious divisions in Zanu PF, the entry into the arena of Home Affairs minister Kembo Mohadi has further muddied the waters, observers and insiders said.
Respected University of Zimbabwe political scientist, Eldred Masunungure, said there would be blood on the floor before congress.
"These are manifestations of power games, they are all aware that this is the right moment to throw their hats into the race," Masunungure said.
"This might be the last race that Mugabe chairs or presides over a congress. So this is the last chance they have to position themselves."
Mugabe, who has already been roundly endorsed by the party's women and youth league arms, will be 94 when the country holds its next elections in 2018. For now he remains
unchallenged.
But it is not free sailing for Mujuru, who is likely to be challenged by Justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa or by a proxy of the Zanu PF stalwart.
While two officials are slugging it out for the vice president post, it is free for all for the second vice president post that Zanu PF usually reserves for politicians from Zapu.
Simon Khaya Moyo, who has long been regarded as the likely one to fill the post, now has the likes of shrewd schemer Kembo Mohadi breathing hard on his neck.
Former ambassador to South Africa Phelekezela Mphoko and politburo members Mohadi and Ambrose Mutinhiri all have an interest in the second VP post.
Masunungure said: "This will get dirtier as factions will use resources in throwing mud at their rivals, because the man who was in charge is showing signs of fatigue and has lost control. People like minister Mohadi, who are dark horses, are being thrown in in order to hide the real power players, Mujuru and Mnangagwa."
Alex Magaisa, a former aide to ex-prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai and a critic of the Mugabe regime, said its now showtime in Zanu PF.
"This is either a signal of how ambition has long been suppressed in Zanu PF and now that the Pandora's Box has been opened, there is a sudden flurry of candidates demonstrating ambition," he said.
"Second, it could be tactical on the part of some candidates. Just as Zanu PF has been known to sponsor dummy candidates to split opposition votes, it might also be the case that some candidates will be sponsored by others to split votes for their rivals.
"Dummies will be thrown into the mix to confuse things and split votes. Third, it could simply be that it is open season and people see this as their best chance to position themselves better in a post-Mugabe era."
An insider said Mugabe has long managed to suppress ambition in his party as he did successfully in 2004, when he viciously thwarted Mnangagwa's hopes of becoming the second secretary and instead picked Mujuru.
Pedzisayi Ruhanya, the director of political think-tank, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, said ultimately, Mugabe's word will prevail.
"The entry of Mohadi is an indication that Mugabe is no longer happy with SK (Moyo) and Mujuru and is trying to put in a new team," Ruhanya said.
"Zanu PF is an authoritarian party and come congress, there will be no competition at all. What Mugabe wants will prevail."
Philani Zamchiya, an Oxford scholar and Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition boss, said the flurry of activity in Zanu PF surrounding succession confirms the inevitable exit of Mugabe from the political scene.
"He can only be there for at least eight years only and that is a short period in politics," Zamchiya said.
"When everyone is putting his hat into the ring, the country should not be confused that there is a genuine democratic process in the party. These people are appealing to the sectors and not the electorate. Everyone is defying Mugabe to astonishing limits."
With several top officials lining up to grab key posts, analysts say the party's wartime leader Mugabe, 90, might have lost control of the 51-year-old movement.
Vice President Joice Mujuru is currently in a precarious position as hawks in her party have unleashed an unprecedented challenge to her post and faction. Her chances of retaining the influential second secretary post now hang in the balance.
The unbridled attack on the party's top hierarchy, including Mujuru herself and the secretary of administration Didymus Mutasa , hitherto regarded as untouchables, even by political featherweights such as deputy Foreign Affairs minister Christopher Mutsvangwa, bears testimony that Mugabe has lost control of the party, analysts said.
Uncensored and unfazed, Mutsvangwa has continued shooting from the hip, targeting senior officials whom he insist should face internal challenge come congress and casting aspersions on a rival faction's liberation war credentials.
While Mutasa's intention to stand in the internal elections as the national chairperson has already caused serious divisions in Zanu PF, the entry into the arena of Home Affairs minister Kembo Mohadi has further muddied the waters, observers and insiders said.
Respected University of Zimbabwe political scientist, Eldred Masunungure, said there would be blood on the floor before congress.
"These are manifestations of power games, they are all aware that this is the right moment to throw their hats into the race," Masunungure said.
"This might be the last race that Mugabe chairs or presides over a congress. So this is the last chance they have to position themselves."
Mugabe, who has already been roundly endorsed by the party's women and youth league arms, will be 94 when the country holds its next elections in 2018. For now he remains
unchallenged.
But it is not free sailing for Mujuru, who is likely to be challenged by Justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa or by a proxy of the Zanu PF stalwart.
While two officials are slugging it out for the vice president post, it is free for all for the second vice president post that Zanu PF usually reserves for politicians from Zapu.
Simon Khaya Moyo, who has long been regarded as the likely one to fill the post, now has the likes of shrewd schemer Kembo Mohadi breathing hard on his neck.
Masunungure said: "This will get dirtier as factions will use resources in throwing mud at their rivals, because the man who was in charge is showing signs of fatigue and has lost control. People like minister Mohadi, who are dark horses, are being thrown in in order to hide the real power players, Mujuru and Mnangagwa."
Alex Magaisa, a former aide to ex-prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai and a critic of the Mugabe regime, said its now showtime in Zanu PF.
"This is either a signal of how ambition has long been suppressed in Zanu PF and now that the Pandora's Box has been opened, there is a sudden flurry of candidates demonstrating ambition," he said.
"Second, it could be tactical on the part of some candidates. Just as Zanu PF has been known to sponsor dummy candidates to split opposition votes, it might also be the case that some candidates will be sponsored by others to split votes for their rivals.
"Dummies will be thrown into the mix to confuse things and split votes. Third, it could simply be that it is open season and people see this as their best chance to position themselves better in a post-Mugabe era."
An insider said Mugabe has long managed to suppress ambition in his party as he did successfully in 2004, when he viciously thwarted Mnangagwa's hopes of becoming the second secretary and instead picked Mujuru.
Pedzisayi Ruhanya, the director of political think-tank, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, said ultimately, Mugabe's word will prevail.
"The entry of Mohadi is an indication that Mugabe is no longer happy with SK (Moyo) and Mujuru and is trying to put in a new team," Ruhanya said.
"Zanu PF is an authoritarian party and come congress, there will be no competition at all. What Mugabe wants will prevail."
Philani Zamchiya, an Oxford scholar and Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition boss, said the flurry of activity in Zanu PF surrounding succession confirms the inevitable exit of Mugabe from the political scene.
"He can only be there for at least eight years only and that is a short period in politics," Zamchiya said.
"When everyone is putting his hat into the ring, the country should not be confused that there is a genuine democratic process in the party. These people are appealing to the sectors and not the electorate. Everyone is defying Mugabe to astonishing limits."
Source - Daily News
