Mugabe genuinely fears 'hanging' if he leaves office

Jonathan Moyo, former Minister of Information and erstwhile Mugabe intimate, told the Ambassador March 30 that Mugabe is aware that there is diminishing support for him within ZANU-PF and around the country. Moyo noted that Mugabe genuinely fears "hanging" if he leaves office and suggested international guarantees for his safety could help persuade Mugabe to go. This was revealed by Wikileaks cable released on 30 August 2011.
 
The cable notes that Moyo observed that Zimbabwe has an active human rights community, and many Zimbabweans want Mugabe held accountable for his excesses. He added that the example of Charles Taylor's expulsion from Nigeria and subsequent delivery to The Hague Special Court was particularly worrying for Mugabe, who had told Mnangagwa that he feared being hung.

Moyo inquired about the U.S. position on immunity for Mugabe. The Ambassador replied that we would respect the wishes of the Zimbabwean people and would understand if they wanted to put the Mugabe era behind them and not work for his prosecution.

Nevertheless, the Ambassador noted "the dictator's dilemma" who can give the guarantees he wants and how could he trust them?
 
Noting the widespread opposition to Mugabe within ZANU-PF, Moyo argued for greater engagement with moderates to explain U.S. positions. There is growing opposition to Mugabe within the party, and a better understanding of U.S. positions could help convince party stalwarts to abandon him.

The Ambassador agreed this was important and said we would expand our efforts, including the hosting of lunches and receptions for parliamentarians, but that many in the party and government had refused to meet with us.
 
The Ambassador discussed in general terms with Moyo principles for international re-engagement with Zimbabwe. In particular, he stated the importance of internationally supervised elections. Moyo agreed that free and fair elections were important; noting Zimbabwean sensitivities about sovereignty, he thought talking in terms of internationally "assisted" elections would be more palatable.

Moyo said his colleagues were aware of the Ambassador's remarks in a SW Radio interview that the U.S. should consider expanding sanctions to parliamentarians. He said he understood a policy of expanding sanctions to include Politburo and Central Committee members (and their families) because they are in decision making positions; he though it unfair, however, to include the large majority of parliamentarians who are not members of either committee.

Including them on the sanctions list might push them into Mugabe's camp; not including them might be an incentive to exercise independence.
 
The cable says Moyo has a checkered history as a one-time apologist for Mugabe but he maintains good contacts across the political spectrum and he provides a window into ZANU-PF's internal politics. The US cable added that Moyo confirmed what we have heard from others.

The Embassy advised US that Moyo is also a useful messenger and, in that regard, we expect the substance of the principles for re-engagement to quickly make the rounds of Harare and increase the pressure on the regime by showing ZANU-PF moderates and waiverers that there will be life after Mugabe. With respect to adding parliamentarians to the visa list, we take Moyo's point about not forcing the doubters back into Mugabe's arms, and would limit the additions to those ZANU-PF MPs who are particularly odorous or who are major economic players.