Ramaphosa's Costly Political Gamble

Deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa might have shot himself in the foot when he publicly criticised President Jacob Zuma for dismissing finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy Mcebisi Jonas in a controversial cabinet reshuffle last week.

Gordhan,who according to some ANC insiders,believed he was untouchable because of his connections to financial institutions,had been marked for dismissal since last year.When Zuma tried to fire him in 2016,he was saved by the intervention of some senior ANC leaders.
That was after allegations surfaced that he was working against the ruling party and the government that gave him the job.

The former finance minister has denied the allegations that he was working with foreign powers to topple the government.Speaking to journalists last week Ramaphosa,who was plucked from political obscurity by the Zuma faction in 2013 said he and other senior party leaders were not consulted about the cabinet reshuffle.The deputy president said he openly voiced his concerns to the president about dismissing Gordhan based on a disputed intelligence report.Gordhan has since been replaced by Malusi Gigaba,a Zuma loyalist.Another pro-Zuma man, Fikile Mbalula was appointed police minister replacing Nkosinathi Nhleko.The ratings agency,S&P on Monday downgraded the country to junk status following the cabinet reshuffle.

Prominent and highly respected Johannesburg business tycoon,Richard Maponya has come to the president's defence saying Gordhan was not indispensable.He said his understanding of the crisis was that the former finance minister was always defiant to the government and Zuma's decisions.

"If you are not in good relations with your boss,it shows there is a problem,"Maponya told the Sowetan newspaper.He also attacked the party's top three,Ramaphosa,Zweli Mkhize and Gwede Mantashe for criticising Zuma in public instead of following party structures.

Zuma supporters say Ramaphosa has ruined his chances of becoming the party leader after publicly attacking the president.Zuma's faction controls most of the party structures in four key provinces of Kwazulu/Natal,Mpumalanga,North-West and Free State.Zuma has also received backing from the influential youth and women's leagues of the party and from the majority of Umkhonto weSizwe(MK) military veterans.Insiders in the ANC say the youth and the women's leagues have started the campaign to block Ramaphosa from becoming the party's next leader.Ramaphosa was tipped to succeed Zuma at the ANC national elective conference scheduled for December this year.

They say Ramaphosa blundered by taking on Zuma in public and aligning himself with opposition forces.And for that,they are calling for his head.A senior ANC official said Ramaphosa has alreasy kissed his presidential ambitions goodbye and could find himself in the political dustbin of the party or go back to business full time.

The deputy president was in 2001 elbowed out of politics by Thabo Mbeki supporters in the government.He was later accused of being involved in a plot to topple Mbeki's government.The former trade unionist is being challenged by struggle stalwart Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for the leadership of the party at the December conference.Dlamini-Zuma,who is the president's ex-wife has the backing of the youth and women's leagues and the four provinces whose premiers are known as the "premier league."

Ramaphosa enjoys the support of the business community,trade unions and Gauteng and Limpopo provinces.The worsening divisions in the ANC are a clear sign that the former liberation movement is at war with itself.The in-fighting could set the stage for a third split in the party ahead of the general election in 2018.