Opinion / Columnist
Will John Nkomo be the next president of Zimbabwe!
03 Apr 2012 at 20:57hrs | Views
With so much speculation rife about Robert Mugabe's poor health in the wake of his supposedly unscheduled flight to Singapore on Friday night, Zimbabweans are wondering who will be their next president if he dies in office.
While spin doctors would like us believe that Mugabe is in Singapore to arrange post-graduate studies for his daughter, the claim is rather an insult to public intelligence and is obviously unconvincing.
There are genuine concerns about the president's fitness to continue holding office if rumours of his failing health are anything to go by amid growing theories about a sick African president who is close to death somewhere at least not in West Africa.
In the event of President Robert Mugabe dying in office, the constitution says he can only be replaced by one of the vice presidents who will hold fort for 90 days and call for fresh elections.
Section 31 (1) of the Constitution of Zimbabwe says, in the event of the President's sudden illness or urgent5 need to travel, without a Vice-President having been appointed to act, then the Vice President who last acted as President will take over the Presidential functions.
Despite despising the GPA, Zanu-PF is guaranteed of retaining the seat of power because that agreement says a vacancy in the office of President must be filled by a nominee of the party which held that position, (therefore no prizes for guessing which one it is).
It follows therefore that the most likely Zanu-PF candidate will be John Nkomo since he was the last to act in that capacity while Mrs Mujuru was in India.
In the event that Mugabe has not been able to designate any of his two deputies to act in his absence, legal experts argue that the president might have made provision for emergencies by leaving instructions on file about which of the Vice Presidents should take over (see Veritas, Bill Watch 27/2011 of 08/07/11 also cited by The Insider on 11/07/11).
One legal expert, Derek Matyszak of the Research and Advocacy Unit made two interesting observations. The first one is that since the enactment of the Constitutional Amendment No.19, which incorporated Article 20 of the GPA "little is clear and free from ambiguity."
One of the anomalies of Zimbabwe's Constitution, he argues, is that it does not only provide for a president, but it is a constitutional requirement that the president is a specific individual, Robert Gabriel Mugabe.
The implication is that there can be no compliance with that constitutional provision on the death of Robert Mugabe, meaning that his succession it is not straightforward as the grossly amended constitution with the help of the GPA would like us believe.
Secondly, it is also a constitutional requirement that the Prime Minister is Morgan Tsvangirai and no one else, according to Matyszak (The Zimbabwean, What happens if Mugabe dies? 08/09/10).
In view of the obvious ambiguous interpretations of the GPA as incorporated in Constitutional Amendment 19, and the unresolved Zanu-PF succession crisis, it is quite justified to be concerned about who will take over in the event of Mugabe dying in office.
Some experts have predicted chaos and anarchy probably they are right, given the faction fighting and the growing divisions on tribal lines over Mugabe's succession compounded by the fight over diamond and platinum shares.
The GPA could turnout to be a recipe for Zimbabwe's future instability and blood-letting power struggles.
Western diplomats will always have contingency plans for evacuation in the event of civil unrest, especially amidst claims that a secret squadron of Australian SAS soldiers had been allegedly operating clandestinely in Zimbabwe over the last year.
It remains to be seen how SADC would spring into action top contain the situation, should all hell break loose in Zimbabwe if Mugabe dies in office.
Hopefully, TB Joshua's prophecy of the death of an old African president which he says is imminent has nothing to do with Zimbabwe.
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Clifford Chitupa Mashiri, Political Analyst, London, zimanalysis2009@gmail.com
While spin doctors would like us believe that Mugabe is in Singapore to arrange post-graduate studies for his daughter, the claim is rather an insult to public intelligence and is obviously unconvincing.
There are genuine concerns about the president's fitness to continue holding office if rumours of his failing health are anything to go by amid growing theories about a sick African president who is close to death somewhere at least not in West Africa.
In the event of President Robert Mugabe dying in office, the constitution says he can only be replaced by one of the vice presidents who will hold fort for 90 days and call for fresh elections.
Section 31 (1) of the Constitution of Zimbabwe says, in the event of the President's sudden illness or urgent5 need to travel, without a Vice-President having been appointed to act, then the Vice President who last acted as President will take over the Presidential functions.
Despite despising the GPA, Zanu-PF is guaranteed of retaining the seat of power because that agreement says a vacancy in the office of President must be filled by a nominee of the party which held that position, (therefore no prizes for guessing which one it is).
It follows therefore that the most likely Zanu-PF candidate will be John Nkomo since he was the last to act in that capacity while Mrs Mujuru was in India.
In the event that Mugabe has not been able to designate any of his two deputies to act in his absence, legal experts argue that the president might have made provision for emergencies by leaving instructions on file about which of the Vice Presidents should take over (see Veritas, Bill Watch 27/2011 of 08/07/11 also cited by The Insider on 11/07/11).
One legal expert, Derek Matyszak of the Research and Advocacy Unit made two interesting observations. The first one is that since the enactment of the Constitutional Amendment No.19, which incorporated Article 20 of the GPA "little is clear and free from ambiguity."
The implication is that there can be no compliance with that constitutional provision on the death of Robert Mugabe, meaning that his succession it is not straightforward as the grossly amended constitution with the help of the GPA would like us believe.
Secondly, it is also a constitutional requirement that the Prime Minister is Morgan Tsvangirai and no one else, according to Matyszak (The Zimbabwean, What happens if Mugabe dies? 08/09/10).
In view of the obvious ambiguous interpretations of the GPA as incorporated in Constitutional Amendment 19, and the unresolved Zanu-PF succession crisis, it is quite justified to be concerned about who will take over in the event of Mugabe dying in office.
Some experts have predicted chaos and anarchy probably they are right, given the faction fighting and the growing divisions on tribal lines over Mugabe's succession compounded by the fight over diamond and platinum shares.
The GPA could turnout to be a recipe for Zimbabwe's future instability and blood-letting power struggles.
Western diplomats will always have contingency plans for evacuation in the event of civil unrest, especially amidst claims that a secret squadron of Australian SAS soldiers had been allegedly operating clandestinely in Zimbabwe over the last year.
It remains to be seen how SADC would spring into action top contain the situation, should all hell break loose in Zimbabwe if Mugabe dies in office.
Hopefully, TB Joshua's prophecy of the death of an old African president which he says is imminent has nothing to do with Zimbabwe.
-----------------------
Clifford Chitupa Mashiri, Political Analyst, London, zimanalysis2009@gmail.com
Source - Clifford Chitupa Mashiri
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