A case for unity between MDC and ZAPU.

Introduction:
It is foolhardy for people of Matebeleland and Midlands to continue behaving and acting as if Zimbabwean politics is normal. The responsibility is huge, however the unification of ZAPU led by Dr Dumiso Dabengwa and MDC led by Professor Welshman Ncube, is a must.
 
In my article I seek to explore contentious issues and leave no stones unturned, this article is not for the feint hearted or for those who blindly follow these two political parties. If you are, please stop reading and save your heart. The aim of this article is to highlight the importance and necessity of unity between these two parties. It will explore how the gap between the two could be bridged. Some may argue that these sensitive and radical issues should be discussed behind closed doors, but my contention is that these issues are too important to be taken lightly as the credibility and survival of these two parties is intractably linked to each other being open minded and seeking each other openly and genuinely and without fear of accusations.
 
In my analysis I will pinpoint the factors which might lead to failure of unity between these two parties, and also identify the fundamental factors which will force them to unite.

In my article I will not forget to suggest formulas which these parties can use to unite.
 
Why unite?
Politics is a game of numbers, it is now clear that since ZAPU's successful revival, that it has managed to rebuild a sizeable number of supporters. It has also become very clear that since the MDC's Congress which saw Ncube becoming its president that its membership has more than trebled and continuing to grow at an alarming rate. This growth is both a positive and negative development. Positive in that politics is a numbers game, which will give MDC and its leadership the credibility they deserve. These numbers will enable Ncube to claim people's mandate and thereby making him a serious leader who represents their interests.

I have heard arguments from both camps for and against unity of these two parties, here, I am going to focus on the reasons against.. From both camps, leaders and supporters have proffered compelling arguments.
 
ZAPU:
ZAPU believes that the constituency of Matebeleland and Midlands is its natural and traditional stronghold and that all Zanu-PF; MDCT and MDC supporters will come back home in the forthcoming elections and vote for it overwhelmingly. This assertion is more based on nostalgia than reality on the ground and may in worse circumstances be viewed as a disdainful treatment of the people of Matebeleland and Midlands. Some ZAPU leaders and supporters argue that ZAPU's liberation credentials are its distinguished achievement, which differentiates it from MDC and gives it a competitive advantage over the MDC. They argue that Zanu-PF is more inclined to respect ZAPU than the MDC, what they forget is that people are still nursing psychological and emotional wounds from Zanu-PF's genocide and marginalisation.

Some ZAPU leaders and supporters believe that in Dabengwa they have a 'tried and tested' horse, a man of valour and highest principles. They say Dabengwa is the only man who can win an election and assume State power unlike what happened in the previous elections when Tswangirayi won but decided to run away to Botswana and to the Dutch Emabssy earning himself a nick name Van Tswangson. A nickname that's all he has from winning an election, today he does not know whether he is in government or still in the opposition.

MDC:
Some MDC leaders and supporters point to ZAPU's past link with Zanu-PF as its greatest disadvantage. They say that since ZAPU signed the Unity Accord under duress, it went to sleep and totally forgot about representing its supporters' interests. They say that they are not even sure whether Dabengwa and ZAPU have actually genuinely, effectively and truly withdrawn from Zanu-PF. Some say the wikileaks have shown that Dabengwa could have been working with Solomon Mujuru and therefore his withdrawal suspicious and not genuine. They ask, 'have you are ever heard Dabengwa criticising Mugabe and his government?'

They accuse ZAPU and its leadership as spoilers, and as not in touch with the political realities on the ground, they argue that ZAPU has been sleeping for too long and therefore it will take it many years to catch up with the changed aspirations of the people. They say that ZAPU is still living in the past whilst people live in the present. Some MDC leaders and supporters point to their unprecedented growth spurt as a vote of confidence in their leadership and party and rejection of ZAPU. They say ZAPU's lack of visibility is too thunderous to an extent that it can interfere with one's eardrums. They see unity with ZAPU in negative terms, they suspect that ZAPU will not bring any value to the fold, but conflicts and divisions.
 
Uprooting Deep-seated fears:
From an outsider within, it is clear that both camps are suffering from paralysis of analysis due to fear, this fear emanates from the desire to preserve the status quo, the desire for self-preservation. Not even one can think straight and over the preservation of positions. Once you raise the issue of unity, the first question you are bombarded with is 'who is going to be the president? Who is going to be the Secretary General? I am not going to trivialise these arguments but it is important to note what people are prepared to lose in order to preserve meaningless positions. This debate has blinded both camps, it may seem that if one can come up with an ingenious plan to solve this problem them negotiations may start and the possibility for these parties to unite would be great. This leadership debate is so intense that none is prepared to interrogate it honestly, it seems the loyalties to either Dabengwa or Ncube are too strong. Here I am prepared to put my life on the line, I will deliberately sit on the fence so that both camps can have a go at me.

I am aware that leadership is important and any success for any organisation is dependent on creative, innovative and dynamic leadership.

DD's leadership credentials:
Dr Dumiso Dabengwa is one of the finest leadership material that the country has ever seen. He is a man who does not believe in megaphone politics, maybe this is due to his background in the Intelligence field. Some argue that his quietness and lack of visibility were qualities and characteristics which were needed in the past when he was in the Intelligence, they say policies of a party can not articulate themselves, they need a forceful and vocal leader. They say shying away from talking and attacking the enemy is simply abdicating one's leadership responsibilities and this is a sure way of self-isolation to the periphery of political influence.

The age factor plays an important role in his leadership, this means that he has over the years accumulated leadership wisdom and skills under very difficulty conditions. DD has been tried and tested, and passed with flying colours. When the stacks are raised high one can be sure that Dabengwa will prevail, he has the stomach and intellectual fire-power to persevere under the most trying times.

The flip side of his age factor is that he has reached his twilight, has amassed wealth for his children and he would not like to risk loosing everything. Some say that Zanu-PF knows everything about Dabengwa, his skeletons in the cupboards, his weaknesses and his fears. They say Dabengwa's lack of visibility and astounding silence is linked to these fears. If this is true then if the Unity materialises it would be best for Ncube to assume leadership, after all Dabengwa has promised not to be like Mugabe and seek to die in that position.

Ncube's leadership qualities:
Nobody who has been following Ncube since his entry in to politics doubts his intellectual gravitas and his shrewd management skills. He seems to be patient, a man who can manipulate time to achieve desired goals, he acts only when he has thought through an issue, he is a great deliberator of issues, as is now, Ncube can stand and trade toe to toe with any leader in the world. He seems to be a well or fountain of endless wisdom. He comes up with ideas which no other leader has dreamt of, for example his work to bring the parliament to Bulawayo. However, some say Ncube's leadership style is aloof and elitist. Nobody can doubt that Ncube is a fast learner, as it could be seen through his deliberate work to endear himself in the hearts and minds of his supporters. No Zimbabwean leader has ever attempted to be down to earth like Welshman Ncube, maybe they are lying that his leadership is elitist, we have seen him mingling with people from all walks of life, toiling with them, shedding tears with them as he seems to understand their suffering. His work at painting and repainting schools is a stroke of ingenuity which many will emulate, but we will wait and see how Mugabe will do it. If its true that Ncube's leadership is distant and elitist, then it is clear that he is deliberately shedding off that cocoon and wearing a new one which makes him a lovable and accessible character. Today Ncube is the most credible leader in Matebeleland and Midlands, nobody doubts his intellect, nobody doubts that he is made of precious material, nobody doubts that he can deliver where Joshua Nkomo failed to deliver; nobody doubts his leadership anymore; however, nobody can tell how brave he could be, when the stacks are raised high, can he stand his ground? When the enemy comes for him and his supporters, can he fight back? This is an element of his leadership which has not been tested so far, which Dabengwa excels in. Maybe if the Unity between the two parties materialise Dabengwa will have to be made the leader whilst Ncube is being groomed under the tough material which Dumiso is.
 
Eventually they will Unite: Sink or swim.
 
In the Zimbabwean political context, any political party led by someone from Matebeleland or Midlands is regarded as regional and worst as a tribal party. This is so without evidence pointing to any tribal stripe of that party except that it is led by someone from the wrong region, this is the nonsense of Zimbabwean politics which Dabengwa and Ncube should accept as soon as possible if they are to move forward in synch with the people. MDC and ZAPU have diverse structures which include in its ranks all kinds of people regardless of where they come from, but they remain subject to the regional and tribal tag/insult. It is true that Zimbabwe politics is polarised and divided on tribal lines, the majority tribe has always used the tribal card to its advantage and it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. This tribal card is a sole determiner of elections outcomes, ZAPU knows that; and the MDC knows that too. Worse now when it is clear that the MDCT might be banished from Mtebeleland and Midlands by the electorate. Tswangirayi will join hands with Robert Mugabe just to thwart the perceived resurgence of the Matebele. George Charamba in his acerbic vile attack against Ncube unwittingly revealed that Tswangirayi and his MDC do not care about Devolution of Power, they will not die for it. Due to the nature of Zimbabwe's political landscape, ZAPU and MDC's strongholds are in Matebeleland and Midlands and Zanu-PF and MDCT's strongholds in Mashonaland regions.

Some in ZAPU and MDC have out of hand dismissed MDCT in Matebeleland and Midlands, they say that people now know that MDCT is not different from ZANU as it is perpetuating Shona domination and hegemony over other tribes and nations in Zimbabwe. I want to warn them today, they can not understate or undermine MDCT's influence in Matebeleland and Midlands. MDCT has something which they do not have, the perception that Tswangirayi and MDCT are the only ones who stand a chance of removing Mugabe and Zanu-PF, this of course has proven to be a lie, again and again, Tswangirayi can not remove Mugabe and MDCT can not remove Zanu-PF, why are they not in power today when everyone knows that they won the last elections. This perception is very appealing to the people of Matebeleland and Midlands due to their hatred of Mugabe and his Zanu-PF party. People should be told that even if Tswangirayi can remove Mugabe, it would be worse for them, as Tswangirayi would be another younger Mugabe, once he assumes power he will start by solidifying his power base by perpetuating Zanu-PF policies which are meant to marginalise Matebelelalnd and Midlands. A psychological appeal can only be countered by another counter-psychological appeal, ZAPU and MDC should come up with that strategy to expose and dispel the Tswangirayi-lie or misperception; one of those strategies is just to unite. The Unity of ZAPU and MDC will give the impression that the Matebeleland and Midlands areas are now a no go area for anti-Matebele parties such as MDCT and Zanu-PF and people will defend their territory by their votes. By so doing MDCT will be effectively banished from Matebeleland and Midlands. If ZAPU and MDC do not unite, they will lose to MDCT in Matebeleland and Midlands. People think that Tswangirayi would be their "udlawu" of removing Mugabe from power, but what they do not realise is that Tswangirayi is the one who put Mugabe to the position he is today.

What you are about to hear is not an overstatement, but a statement of fact firmly grounded on the realities on the ground; if ZAPU and MDC unite , they will win all the seats in Matebeleland and Midlands; this is the most compelling reality which will force these two parties to unite.
 
Proposed Models of Unity:
There are basically two forms of Unity which ZAPU and MDC could utilise; the rest are just variants of these two forms, these are merger and alliance.
 
a) Merger
 
This form of Unity will see MDC and ZAPU being fused together and morph into one party, this might culminate in a complete new party, with a new name; new symbols, new leadership ect, This form may also result in, depending on the formulae used, one of the current names being used for the new formation, eg. ZAPU or MDC. Under this form of Unity, risks of Unity not materialising are quite high, serious and thorough negotiations which might go on for years and years maybe needed to achieve this level of integration. Central to this form is the leadership question; the name and positions for the girls and boys. If the two parties manage to merge together, this is the most ideal position and it will offer the new party the strengths of both parties, with this form of Unity, it is certain that MDTC and Zanu-PF will be completely banished from Matebeleland and Midlands by the electorate. This form of Unity bears more weight and has more advantages and positives than alliances.
 
b) Alliance
 
Alliances lack the depth and weight to seriously convince the electorate that the two parties mean serious business, however, they are easy to form and if done properly they can achieve similar outcomes to mergers. Under this form of Unity, both parties will remain intact and independent, but with expressed and tacit agreements in terms of policy; campaign strategy; share of human and financial resources; and tactical agreements on share of constituencies. The contentious issue of leadership is not completely eliminated or removed from this form of Unity, however, it becomes less of an issue. When the presidential elections come, they will have to sit down and choose one person to contest against Mugabe. It would be nonsensical to see Dabengwa and Ncube contesting against each other, this will give Tswangirayi and Mugabe an undeserved advantage.
 
Conclusion:
MDC and ZAPU stand to prosper when they shelve off their petty differences and form some kind of unity. If they form some kind of Unity before the elections, they stand to win all the seats in Matebeleland and Midlands, but if they ignore this reality, they will lose to MDCT. Negotiations between these two parties should start now. They should not be afraid of allegations and accusations of forming a tribal pact; those very people who will be accusing them, they have used the tribal card for more than 30 years and they will continue doing so.