Mugabe going stronger

HARARE - Just next door, South Africans are reeling and anxious about Nelson Mandela's deteriorating health.

At 93, the former anti-apartheid icon and South Africa's president is not only frail, but buffeted by myriad ailments too.

And in exactly five years, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe would have reached the same milestone or age - yet he unashamedly tells the world and his Zanu-PF party that he is not about to retire.

Such are the odds against Zimbabwe's future that a mere mortal like the 88-year-old leader - unambiguously Madiba's age-mate in every way - has the temerity to claim or cast an impression that he is not exposed to the vagaries, if not ills, of life and time?

While the Zanu-PF strongman has scoffed at persistent reports of his illness, Mandela's recent hospitalisation has brought Mugabe's own heath into sharp focus - what with his frequent jaunts to the Far East for "cataract check-ups".

John Makumbe, a Harare-based political analyst, said there was no doubting about the Zimbabwean leader's potential health problems, given his advanced age.

"Mugabe is definitely suffering from ailments that come with age," the University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer told the WeekendPost recently.

"He has been attended to by doctors in the Far East and this is 10 times-more than what South Africans pay for Mandela's health. His capacity (and abilities) is diminishing and that is why people like Mandela stepped out of office," Makumbe said, adding the octogenarian leader was being selfish by clinging on to power and seeking another term in foreseen elections this year.

The feisty analyst believes if Mugabe is incapacitated - one way or another and before choosing a successor - the country could be thrown into instability and uncertainty.

"If it so happens (that he is incapacitated)… a successor from his party will have to take over and see out his term (of office). But there is no agreed successor in Zanu-PF. What this means for the country is that the factions will keep fighting each other and that is the recipe for political instability," Makumbe said.

Effie Ncube, a Bulawayo-based political analyst, said it was common for old people like Mugabe to fall sick and the masses have been concerned about the long-running ruler's health because of the secrecy around his health condition.

"It's perfectly normal for elderly people to be in and out of hospital," he said.

"He has been regularly visiting the Far East to seek medical attention (and) there is no transparency (on his health) as he has not told the nation what he is suffering from, thus the people are concerned about his capacity to lead the nation," Ncube added.

He further noted that it would be a disaster - for Zanu-PF - if Mugabe was to die in office.

"This is so because Zanu-PF has been personalised. Mugabe is Zanu-PF and Zanu-PF is Mugabe. His colleagues know that he cannot live for 200 years (and) the sole reason why they want him to stay in power is to protect their 'wealth', which they have acquired through stealing over the past three decades."

Unlike Mandela, Mugabe's health is a closely-guarded secret and any mention of his ill-health is usually met with furious denials from his aides.

On the other hand, the former South African leader and Nobel Peace laureate has made numerous public pronouncements about his health, including a 2001 disclosure about a prostate cancer diagnosis.

Apart from the recent abdominal pain and detainment, doctors have said Mandela is plagued by poor eyesight â€" caused by years in badly-lit apartheid prison cells and effects of lime quarries â€" a hearing impairment.

Other Mugabe contemporaries, if not comrades, such as Fidel Castro have had to quit politics at the instance of continual health problems, and failures â€" also associated with old age.

But after eight trips or so to Singapore since last year, the Zimbabwean president's spin-doctors still want to project him as "highly alert and sprightly" amid constant rumours of his battles with prostate cancer and other ailments.

On his own â€" and specifically around his Mutare birthday â€" Mugabe has admitted, though, that his body is spent, although he still has "boyish energy or instincts".

While his advisors, media lackeys and other functionaries have often tried to present the former guerrilla leader as fit, and beyond illness, the truth of the matter is that he has been battered by decades of "self-created socio-economic pressures" and endless travels.

As a leaked American diplomatic cable allegedly quoted one of Mugabe's top aides as saying Mugabe "was out of it" 75 percent of the times, Zimbabwe's Daily News also wondered in its launch edition if this was the country's future.

In February, a key Cabinet official and Industry minister Welshman Ncube added to the intrigue â€" if not charade about Mugabe's fitness â€" by declaring that the Zanu-PF leader slept in crucial meetings all the time.

Mugabe's health condition and fate have come under scrutiny following his latest trip to Singapore.