Opinion / Columnist
'Inflation will be 10% by December' boasted Ncube - end corruption and pariah state curse
04 Jun 2019 at 04:38hrs | Views
When the then Minister of Finance, Bernard Chidzero, introduced the 1990-1995 Economic Structural Adjustment Programme (ESAP) he assured the people adjustment was routine and necessary in gearing the nation for great economic prosperity. However, during the adjustment period the people would be required to make some sacrifices and "tighten they belts".
Welfare policies such as free health and education, price controls, etc. were scrapped and the ordinary people suffered.
The Minister never doubted for a minute that ESAP would NOT deliver the economic recovery he projected. The Zanu PF controlled public media went into overdrive praising the regime and its implementation of ESAP. Everything good that happened was attributed to ESAP and was given as proof the programme was working. Everything bad that happened was swept under the carpet, it never happened.
By the end of the 1995 it was clear the much talked about economic recovery did not happen, the economy was still as sick as a parrot, and so ESAP mark-2, with even deeper cuts, was prescribed. The people were once again forced to tighten their belts even further. ESAP mark-2 too failed to revive the economy which has continued in its free fall to this day.
All the Ministers of Finance, since Bernard Chidzero, have come up with anything as ambitious as ESAP; they were all content to president over the country's chaotic economic decline. That changed with the appointment of Professor Mthuli Ncube as Zimbabwe's Minister of Finance; the country was back to boasting about economic prosperity, "upper middle-income status by 2030", Ncube promised. But before we can enjoy the economic prosperity we had to endure hardships, "austerity before prosperity", he said.
"Zimbabwe is on a journey of reform. Nobody ever said it wouldn't be a bumpy ride; but the most important thing is that the journey has begun, and we are heading in the right direction," boasted Minister Ncube in his recent running commentary.
"The Transitional Stabilisation Programme, the first step of government's economic reform programme, was launched in October 2018. Its goal was clear: To stabilise the economy, attract investment and lay the foundation for shared and sustained growth.
"The overall picture so far is one of cautious optimism, largely based around the effectiveness of our measures to balance the budget."
All nonsense! The truth is the programme has failed to stabilise the economy as seen by the return of the dreaded hyperinflation, for example. Zimbabwe's inflation rate soared to 500 billion percent is 2008 and was only brought under control by the scrapping of the Z$. And ever since inflation has remained below 10% until Ncube's appointment. Inflation has surged from 50% to 80% in the last two weeks alone and signs are the crazy days of 2008 are back again.
Minister Ncube has failed to attract any investors and lenders. He used to fly in and out of USA to secure credit line funding from IMF and WB but failed to get even one single dollar.
Professor Ncube's economic programme was doomed to fail just as Dr Chidzero's ESAP was too doomed to fail; the two programmes targeted the poor to tighten their belts whilst the filthy rich ruling elite, responsible for the criminal waste of the nation's resources, were left to carry on. Professor Ncube's 2% tax on all electronic transactions, for example, targeting the unemployed vendors, poorest of the poor who paid no income tax. He has done nothing to tax the billions of dollars looted from diamonds much less stop the looting. Ncube, just like Chidzero before him, has done nothing to reduce the top-heavy public sector, cut the chefs' generous salaries and allowances, etc.
By rigging last year's elections Zanu PF confirmed Zimbabwe is still a pariah state.
As long as Zimbabwe remains a pariah state ruled by corrupt, incompetent and vote rigging thugs the country's economic meltdown will only get worse and economic recovery will remain a mirage.
Zimbabwe's autocratic system has stifled debate and democratic competition allowing the regime to implement such programmes as ESAP and TSP without serious scrutiny and hence the reason some of the foolish mistakes in the former are being repeated in the later
"Of course, as all Zimbabweans know, it has not been all plain sailing. The inflationary pressures we have faced have caused uncertainty and pain, and we have made dealing with this our number one concern. To address this, we have pushed ahead in our efforts to narrow the fiscal deficit and slow down money supply growth, and we project inflation to slow down to below 10% by the end of the year," said Minister Ncube.
It is not impossible to rein in the supply of money, etc. and bring down inflation to 10% by the end of the year. Still, one has to ask what did you accomplish by cutting it lose these last eight months.
But more significantly what are you, Minister Ncube, going to do to end corruption and to lift the pariah state curse? Because as long as Zimbabwe remains a pariah state ruled by corrupt and vote rigging thugs your promise to attract investors and lenders and revive the economy will remain a pipedream.
Welfare policies such as free health and education, price controls, etc. were scrapped and the ordinary people suffered.
The Minister never doubted for a minute that ESAP would NOT deliver the economic recovery he projected. The Zanu PF controlled public media went into overdrive praising the regime and its implementation of ESAP. Everything good that happened was attributed to ESAP and was given as proof the programme was working. Everything bad that happened was swept under the carpet, it never happened.
By the end of the 1995 it was clear the much talked about economic recovery did not happen, the economy was still as sick as a parrot, and so ESAP mark-2, with even deeper cuts, was prescribed. The people were once again forced to tighten their belts even further. ESAP mark-2 too failed to revive the economy which has continued in its free fall to this day.
All the Ministers of Finance, since Bernard Chidzero, have come up with anything as ambitious as ESAP; they were all content to president over the country's chaotic economic decline. That changed with the appointment of Professor Mthuli Ncube as Zimbabwe's Minister of Finance; the country was back to boasting about economic prosperity, "upper middle-income status by 2030", Ncube promised. But before we can enjoy the economic prosperity we had to endure hardships, "austerity before prosperity", he said.
"Zimbabwe is on a journey of reform. Nobody ever said it wouldn't be a bumpy ride; but the most important thing is that the journey has begun, and we are heading in the right direction," boasted Minister Ncube in his recent running commentary.
"The Transitional Stabilisation Programme, the first step of government's economic reform programme, was launched in October 2018. Its goal was clear: To stabilise the economy, attract investment and lay the foundation for shared and sustained growth.
"The overall picture so far is one of cautious optimism, largely based around the effectiveness of our measures to balance the budget."
Minister Ncube has failed to attract any investors and lenders. He used to fly in and out of USA to secure credit line funding from IMF and WB but failed to get even one single dollar.
Professor Ncube's economic programme was doomed to fail just as Dr Chidzero's ESAP was too doomed to fail; the two programmes targeted the poor to tighten their belts whilst the filthy rich ruling elite, responsible for the criminal waste of the nation's resources, were left to carry on. Professor Ncube's 2% tax on all electronic transactions, for example, targeting the unemployed vendors, poorest of the poor who paid no income tax. He has done nothing to tax the billions of dollars looted from diamonds much less stop the looting. Ncube, just like Chidzero before him, has done nothing to reduce the top-heavy public sector, cut the chefs' generous salaries and allowances, etc.
By rigging last year's elections Zanu PF confirmed Zimbabwe is still a pariah state.
As long as Zimbabwe remains a pariah state ruled by corrupt, incompetent and vote rigging thugs the country's economic meltdown will only get worse and economic recovery will remain a mirage.
Zimbabwe's autocratic system has stifled debate and democratic competition allowing the regime to implement such programmes as ESAP and TSP without serious scrutiny and hence the reason some of the foolish mistakes in the former are being repeated in the later
"Of course, as all Zimbabweans know, it has not been all plain sailing. The inflationary pressures we have faced have caused uncertainty and pain, and we have made dealing with this our number one concern. To address this, we have pushed ahead in our efforts to narrow the fiscal deficit and slow down money supply growth, and we project inflation to slow down to below 10% by the end of the year," said Minister Ncube.
It is not impossible to rein in the supply of money, etc. and bring down inflation to 10% by the end of the year. Still, one has to ask what did you accomplish by cutting it lose these last eight months.
But more significantly what are you, Minister Ncube, going to do to end corruption and to lift the pariah state curse? Because as long as Zimbabwe remains a pariah state ruled by corrupt and vote rigging thugs your promise to attract investors and lenders and revive the economy will remain a pipedream.
Source - zimbabwelight.blogspot.com
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