Mutambara - Down but still kicking

DESPITE a High Court judgement delivered last week that declared Welshman Ncube the legitimate leader of the splinter Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Arthur Mutambara remains ensconced in the inclusive government as one of the three principals running the country's affairs.

His political survival is both a result of the defective nature of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) that gave rise to the inclusive government in February 2009 and the fact that the leadership dispute in the smaller faction of the MDC has since been escalated to the Supreme Court.

While Article XX of the GPA specifically mentions Zanu-PF leader, President Robert Mugabe and MDC-T leader, Morgan Tsvangirai by name as President and Prime Minister of the coalition government respectively, it only says "there shall be two (2) Deputy Prime Ministers, one (1) from the MDC-T and one (1) from the MDC-M", without mentioning them by name.

An appeal in the Supreme Court therefore has the effect of setting aside the High Court ruling by judge, Justice Bharat Patel, which had cleared the way for Ncube's ascendance to the Deputy Premiership of the Republic.

But even without the noting of the appeal, the road to replace Mutambara was still going to be a daunting one for Ncube.

First, the GPA is silent on what should happen in the event that either of the parties to the agreement decides to recall a sitting President, Prime Minister or Deputy Prime Minister.

Second, there is also a clear distinction between government and party business, with senior government appointees being sworn to the oath of office by the President: This makes President Mugabe both a player and a referee in the whole thing, whether or not the Supreme Court upholds Patel's ruling.

President Mugabe appears to have a soft spot for Mutambara and has been accused of shielding the robotics professor from Ncube's onslaught.

Mutambara has also made it known that he admires President Mugabe, something that insulated him from the wrath of Zanu-PF hardliners who hardly miss the opportunity to get at their enemies although it created a wedge between him and MDC supporters.

A group aligned to Mutambara has been disputing Ncube's victory at a party congress held in Harare last January. Mutambara, hiding behind the group's cover, has expertly used the dispute to hang on to the DPM post.

But that has done little to take his political future from the spotlight.

Whether Mutambara and the 13 Members of Parliament aligned to him, among them the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Nomalanga Khumalo, genuinely believe they still have a legitimate case and will see a reversal of the High Court judgement still remains to be seen.

But political observers are agreed that the High Court judgement has dealt a heavy blow to the DPM and might have pushed him a step closer to the political wilderness.

What is not helping matters for Mutambara is that the life-term of the Government of National Unity (GNU) could be coming to an end within 12 months as directed by the Southern African Development Community Troika Summit held in Angola this month.

In the interim, the prospect of elections being held a year away from now does appear to be more in Mutambara's interest for the sake of keeping himself on the political scene but it is what would happen thereafter that makes his continued career as a politician doubtful.

Mutambara was a noted leader of the student movement in 1988 and 1989, leading anti-government protests at the University of Zimbabwe (UZ), which led to his arrest and imprisonment.

He was later educated on a Rhodes Scholarship in 1991 at Merton College, Oxford in the United Kingdom where he obtained a PhD in Robotics and Mechatronics, and in the United States where he spent time as a visiting Fellow in the same field, including both California Institute of Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and FSU College of Engineering.

His nemesis, Ncube, worked as a lecturer on business strategy and as a consultant for McKinsey & Company. Born July 7, 1961, Ncube has, since the consummation of the inclusive government, been the Minister of Industry and Commerce.

In 2002, Ncube was one of three MDC MPs to be charged with high treason over an alleged plot to assassinate President Mugabe, but like the others was found not guilty.

He is said to have masterminded the MDC split in 2005, which greatly weakened opposition against President Mugabe's continued rule. But he was also instrumental in the talks for the Zimbabwe unity government, which ended the bitter contestation for power between President Mugabe and the MDC-T leader.

Political analyst, Dumisani Nkomo, intimated that Mutambara needs the time to regroup, fight and salvage the little that he can get out of a messy court battle.

After all, unlike the other principals in the GNU -- President Mugabe and Prime Minister Tsvangirai -- who each lead formidable political parties, Mutambara does not have a political party behind him -- and owes solely his stay in power to the GNU.

With no political party, Mutambara's visibility among voters is likely to slip away and if he is to declare his participation in the next Presidential elections, his announcement is unlikely to cause a dent on the political landscape.

Talk of Mutambara and the post of DPM being "donated" to Zanu-PF emerging from the ranks of Ncube's MDC could also be symbolic of the dismissive attitude that has permeated among his former colleagues.

Perhaps even more telling is that Mutambara has sought legal recourse in his fight with Ncube and not leaned on the party's 4 000 supporters, who after all control the levers of power and makeup the heart and soul of the splinter MDC party.

However, his stay in the GNU is still guaranteed, as the Attorney General, Johannes Tomana, last week ruled out the possibility of the DPM making way for the ascendancy of Ncube as the third principal in the GNU.

Yet other say, after his latest setback, Mutambara might pull another robot of a plan out of his scientific bag.

"My analysis of the professor's situation is that he will in the not so distant future form a political party largely composed of a combination of current political moderates and neutral citizens with no political DNA," said Farai Mamina, an independent political analyst based in Namibia.

"In the event of his determination to fight back in the Supreme Court not yielding desired results, Mutambara who should have cultivated a 'niche' from the troubled GNU by now, will likely surprise the nation with a new political party announcement. That would not be much of a big surprise in political circles and the spheres that drive it, but will certainly be a surprise to the average person on the street. There have been clear signs of Mutambara's intention to build public confidence and mirror a better political image of himself than the one he portrayed during his heydays as the tumultuous UZ student leader from 1988," he added.

Nhlanhla Dube, spokesperson of Ncube's MDC this week reiterated his party's stance that it would not pursue the post of DPM, which was a diversionary tactic to stop it from preparing for elections.

"We have donated Mutambara that post of DPM and all the renegade MP's to Zanu-PF, we have no need of them", he said.