Prospects Of Zimbabwean Politics 2011 and beyond

It is a fact that our Zimbabwean politics have been volatile since 1979 or 1980. Some of the events we learn and read from the books of history and some of the chronicles of our Zimbabwean politics we have seen and experienced. Zimbabwe has made headlines in the world in numerous instances for both good and bad reasons. Ever since the early 80s or rather the 70s Zimbabwe has been a fighting nation. All political leaders have been fighting or at least confessing involvement in some "wars".

From the 1970s Zimbabwe through ZIPRA and ZANLA were fighting the regime of Ian Smith and his minority rule. In April 1980, after the "surprise" February 1980 elections, Independence was declared. Remember I said above that our politics has always been volatile. If you read and study Zimbabwean history on face value, you would think that the face of the struggle for independence was the man nick named father Zimbabwe but who never ruled or led the Zimbabwe that he "fathered".

In other pre colonial nations, people who led fight against imperialists normally became first leaders. In Zimbabwe that was not (to be) the case. The same father Zimbabwe spent the greater part of the independence after math on the run until the 1987 unity accord. Of course I would not go back to the details of the early 80s where those that were in the bush and abroad fighting a common enemy soon became common enemies and fought each other for about five to seven years.

In the 1990s the fighting nation continued fighting. Others were still fighting the imperialists to gain economic independence while others were now starting to fight the "liberator" who was seemingly the "oppressor". So, there was internal and external fighting. It was in those years where as a fighting nation we also exported and our fighting skills and resources to other nations like Angola and DRC.
 
After the year 2000 to date we have continued as a fighting nation. Now the enemies and or targets of fighting have increased and become even more confusing to the fighters themselves. Some have been fighting imperialists, economic saboteurs, puppets, regime change agents, dictators, oppressors, hunger, poverty, defectors, the West, sanctions, repressive legislation, the list continues. What has been interesting is that those fighting would forget who or what the enemy really is!

The current politics world over is being decorated by unity governments and or coalitions. This is happening in both the so called 1st world and in the developing world. In America, Britain, German, Kenya, Zimbabwe and other countries, governments at one level or another, directly or indirectly are through coalitions. Here again Zimbabwe as is normally full of surprises, it is the only one with the ruling party or should I say supposedly ruling party not having its leader in the highest office.

The party with more house of assembly seats and highest 1st round presidential votes could not determine the way forward and in real terms plays junior partner in the so called GNU. I read in some instances including the most recent MDC (T) congress where they call themselves the ruling party. Below is a direct quote from its president, "I stand here as leader of a ruling party with majority seats in Parliament and with a Speaker of the House of Assembly. A party that has mayors in all the urban areas and controls the majority of local authorities throughout the country."

I am not quite sure of what "ruling" means. Does it mean that the happenings in our country where the same people cry foul about and profess helplessness about are indeed their responsibility as the ruling party! I hope not but maybe words may mean different things and sometimes need be taken in context I suppose, as many like saying; "I was quoted out of context'!

In Zimbabwe because of our ability not to be outclassed, we also boast of having the oldest president or head of state at 87 narrowly beating KING ABDULLAH of Saudi Arabia who is about six months younger! This reminds me of my recent visit to my rural home about two weeks ago. As I always do when going to my roots, I bought my 95 year old grandmother coca cola and a packet of biscuits which she likes. I gave her and after some minutes I passed through where she was sitting, she was still eating those biscuits and literally chewing some, she says to me; "how come you did not bring me anything, I am hungry"!

Now, I believe that Zimbabwe is ripe for moving on to developmental and progressive politics after the coming elections. For the past 31 years, in my view, we have only been in the fighting and mending politics. We are now poised for moving on to the real and progressive politics. If elections are held in 2013 or 2012, I believe that will be the last or should be the last "refutation" or "protest" voting. Of late, and I hope current political leaders realize that, voting had been trying to make a point and get rid of someone or some policies rather than voting for the merits of the person or policies being voted for.

In my own outlook, all things being equal, MDC (T) has all the chances and opportunity of winning the upcoming elections barring a mis fortune on them and miracle on other political players. In the absence of any major shift in the current politics and anything happening out of this world, MDC (T) is likely going to out rightly win the coming elections not because they are a good and or better party but because of them being the possible way of having a change in government. (Remember change is not necessarily good or positive but change is change!).

As I alluded to above that protest voting may be the last in the coming elections for the foreseeable future, it may mean short life for the MDC (T) if they do not realize that and re brand their party. It seems they are in the mist that partially blinds many leaders and organizations who hold on to history and forget the prospects of the future! Many leaders and organizations take comfort in their achievements and accomplishments at the expense of forward looking and preparing for the outlook.

Eloquence, talent, skill, abilities and strengths of one or certain leaders should not and never define or be the only face of any organization. A healthy organization should and is better off struggling with the inefficiencies and failures of new or changing leaders than bask in the glory and achievements of old long time leaders. The former has long term survival while the latter is at the brisk of inclement. Its amazing that humans a many times fail to learn from the experiences of others but would rather test the waters themselves before they prove its depth but many a times funerals follow!

ZANU PF has exemplified a party that did not have clear succession plans and seemingly did not envision itself beyond certain leaders. MDC (T) currently seems also not to have budgeted a time beyond its founding leaders or president in particular as he is the only person capable of taking the party into government as they say. That is tantamount to political blasphemy and shallow political mindedness. I have come to realize that any organization can survive without any face or figure. Nobody should deceive themselves and others as being infallible and indispensable. Any change or renewal in leadership has its own setbacks and challenges but I believe in the long term, advantages outweigh the disadvantages. The earlier leaders and organizations realize that the better for them.

It is also equally important for organizations not to be deceived into thinking that they are the only ones having the capacity to do anything. Personalizing and restricting anything positive to one's organization is among other things mischievous, arrogance, deception, shortsightedness and foolishness. "It is only an MDC government that has capacity and support to grow this economy by about 10 percent every year," he said."Only an MDC government, which I am proud to lead, has the capacity to redeem this economy from total demise."

South Africa is a good example or reference point. Nelson Mandela is a good leader, I do not dispute that, but he is far from being perfect. For him to leave public politics after serving one term as president was actually good for him and South Africa. Had he perpetuated his leadership beyond that South Africa and the world could have seen many errors and flows in his leadership, but he wisely ensured that was never to be. In his term as president of the Republic, Mr Mandela was probably just the face of reconciliation and not necessarily the practical "executive" president of South Africa. Most executive and cabinet responsibilities were being carried out by the then Vice President Thabo Mbeki and core vice president and former president F.W. De Clerk. But in the absence of insight of many and naturally, the credit was and indeed went to President Mandela. Many leaders miss that opportunity of knowing the time to get in and out of power.

Prime Minister Tsvangirai may have fallen into the same blind sport though it is not too late for him to realize that and redeem himself. After this year's MDC congress, where his mandate as MDC (T) president was extended for another five years, he would have led the party for seventeen years when the term expires. Despite the trivial justification that he was not yet in government, that (17 year party presidency) is not good for any modern democracy they are preaching. If the truth, like it is being said that initially they did not anticipate that the "struggle" to fight ZANU PF and get into government would take this long, is anything to stand by, then they either underestimated ZANU PF or did not strategize properly. That would naturally be the reason for Tsvangirai to leave leadership of MDC (T) instead of it being reason for him to remain. That should be a sign of failure than achievement and consequently weakness than strength.

As I look into the upcoming elections whose date and year is yet to be made clear, MDC (T) is most likely going to win. They will definitely need be credited for that were it to happen. But, for good democracy and progress on Zimbabwe I personally would not want them to have a two thirds or more majority in the house of assembly and senate. If that were to happen, then we would have again created a political monster that would haunt us in the near future. I foresee ZANU PF being a bigger opposition party though may die a natural death except they also learn from their mistakes and re brand!

Why I would not prefer MDC (T) to have outright majority is simple because they cannot be trusted with absolute and un challengeable authority. Hung parliaments are currently the best for democracy. If a party has outright majority which gives it room to change legislation and pass laws on its own without need to get support from other political players, that party becomes dangerous and that needs no clarification as we have experienced both locally and internationally.

What then is the possible way to handle that? I would urge the other political players who would include smaller parties like MDC (N), ZAPU, Mavambo, independents, etc to make loose or firm coalitions. This would give them a deciding and balancing role both in the legislator and government. Another clear possible way is to focus on provinces and areas where people normally vote as "clusters" and secure those votes or seats.

After the upcoming elections, if no party has outright majority and there is use of loose or firm coalitions, I believe then we would move in the right direction for building our nation. Then we would need new political players either from the current parties or new parties but certainly new leaders and not the dead beat and redundant leaders who will then lead this country to the desired future. So, I see the elections that will come after around 2017/8 being the real elections for growth and a bright future. Where leaders and political parties, ideologies and policies will be judged based on merit, substance and quality rather than inclination, race or tribe. A future with a good economy, fair political space, free media, visionary leaders, international level or standard of governance, good legislation, investment in infrastructure, corrupt free (or minimized) society and government, generational envisioning, etc.

That future is possible, that future belongs to all of us, that future is a responsibility for all us, that future should be worked for by all of us!

I thank God that our nation will prosper again,

Stay blessed