The MDC-T on the verge of implosion and explosion

The recent events in the political arena in Zimbabwe have left many disappointed, dejected and without hope. Many had pinned their hopes on the MDCT and Mr Tsvangirai on removing Mr Robert Mugabe and his ZANU PF. In fact the MDCT strategy, which to a great extent was very effective, was to portray itself as the one and only party with a potential of removing Mugabe. This strategy was not just plucked from the air just like that, but it was based on viable evidence and effective political activism, which saw the MDC thrashing ZANU PF on many political fronts, including the now famous or infamous 2008 elections.

Immediately after the disastrous general elections of 2013, I proffered an argument that Zimbabwean political parties needed leadership renewal, with the exception of the MDC led by Prof Welshman Ncube. I will not reiterate the reasons here; however, I have to say that this idea of leadership change in Zimbabwe has proven to be an Achilles heel or an albatross on their proverbial political-necks which threatens to drown them to eternal political abyss.

The abysmal and dismal electoral failure of the MDCT sent shock waves and tremors throughout its structures. The brave but misguided people like Roy Bennet started echoing their dissatisfaction of the calibre of leadership in the MDCT particularly the leadership of Mr Tsvangirai which was seen as having deviated and veered off from all the democratic principles and values which the MDCT purportedly stood for. The other intellectuals within the MDCT started voicing their leadership concern, however, the one which caused tremendous tremors, cracks and rifts was Mr Elton Mangoma's genuine and innocent letter which was written in broad daylight and shared with Mr Tsvangirai in broad daylight, which made simple observations of Mr Tsvangirai leadership failures and suggested that the only wayforward was to instigate the process of leadership renewal.

As expected of Tsvangirai, he hit the roof and went out of his way and decided to fire Mr Mangoma for the calls of leadership renewal. Little did Tsvangirai realise that he had started the firing game, in no time but after careful legal calculations Mr Tendai Biti fired Tsvangirai himself. In a huff and haste Mr Tsvangirai fired Mr Biti, but little did Mr Tsvangirai realise that he was falling into Biti's trap. In an essence Mr Tsvangirai has effectively fired himself from the MDCT as we currently know it. This has effectively caused the split akin to the 2005 one, which saw Prof Ncube remaining with the original MDC and Tsvangirai forming a splinter group which he later named after his surname ‘MDCTsvangirai'.

The reasons for the splits are the same, dictatorship, kitchen cabinet, tribalism, use of violence and unbridled corruption.

Enough about the past, now let us turn to the future, and look at the possible political permutations and their implications.

Scenario 1
The MDCT split may result in two equally strong factions, but in the short term Tsvangirai's faction will seem stronger as Tsvangirai will continue drawing crowds to his rallies. The Tendai Biti faction is more likely to be stronger intellectually but weak in terms of membership. This will enable it to emerge victorious over the Tsvangirai faction in the long-run. In essence what this scenario entails is that the vote will be effectively split to ZANU PF's advantage. The person to blame should be Tsvangirai a man who is prepared to split the party twice in defence of his personal gains. Under this first scenario, Tsvangirai's splinter group will slowly wear down due to financial difficulties. Tsvangirai's faction will slowly find it difficult to finance its rallies, pay for its personnel and rentals. On the other hand, the Biti group will slowly built up its membership and grow exponentially as the group will enjoy support from the donor community. The word is written on the wall that sooner Tsvangirai's blind supporters will be deserting him to join various political organisations such as ZAPU, MDC and even the Biti faction.

Scenario 2
The Biti faction will probably court other organisations such as ZAPU and MDC led by Welshman Ncube, many political analysts see this as the best scenario which stands a greater chance of changing the political landscape materially. In such a gathering of political giants, Biti is not automatically assured of leadership based on his ethnicity; every leader stands a chance of leading the alliance or coalition. Some have even gone to the extent of suggesting the need for a calculative move by looking for a leader outside these organisations.
 
The advantages of such an alliance are numerous, but the most important one directly hits at the core of the Zimbabwean problem, which is tribalism. Such an alliance will be solely based on mutual trust not on implied superiority of one ethnic group over the other such as the one found in the MDCT and ZANU PF. This will be the beginning of a genuine political process which will transcend beyond ethnicity and values merit more than anything else.

This kind of alliance stands a good chance of removing Mugabe and his party in the polls in 2018. If a party with liberation credentials such as ZAPU is part to such an alliance, Mugabe and his cohorts will have no chance of discrediting the alliance as a puppet of the West party and they will not be allowed to not allow the alliance to assume power when it wins the elections.

If ZANU PF refuses to relinquish power in the event of such a win, then the alliance will have every right to use whatever legitimate means at their disposal to dislodge ZANU PF.  

Conclusion
The demise of Tsvangirai is a blessing in disguise, which brings renewed hope for a possible broad based alliance, which will be based on respect and shared democratic ideals. Mr Tsvangirai destroyed his political career through bad advice from young lads like Chamisa.

In the meantime ZAPU is reporting a surge in its membership uptake and the trend is most likely to continue.