History repeats itself as Mujuru topples

The world watched in awe 10 years ago as Joice Mujuru became President Robert Mugabe's first female deputy in Zanu-PF and then government since the formation of the party in 1963 and independence in 1980.

Today, the same world watches in awe as she is pulled down to the muddy ground by the very internal foes that she kicked off as she stepped up the ladder.

Mujuru's dramatic elevation into the Zanu-PF presidium in late 2004 bears an uncanny resemblance to her current fall from political sunshine, and her impending fate lends weight to the old cliché that politics is indeed a dirty game.

Things happened very fast. A quick series of political machinations led by her late husband and former military supremo Solomon rallied support against Emmerson Mnangagwa and his faction.

The Mujuru camp had learnt that the Mnangagwa group was fast gaining political capital ahead of the December 2004 elective congress and Emmerson was likely to land the post of first vice president.
The gender card

Mnangagwa had successfully mobilised at least six Zanu-PF provincial chairpersons and key party strategists, among them Jonathan Moyo and Patrick Chinamasa, who then met in rural Tsholotsho under the guise of a prize-giving ceremony.

They were putting the final touches to their strategy to wrest the presidium and render the Mujuru camp weak. With six provinces under his thumb, the contest for the vice presidency had become academic as that is the minimum required to get a winning vote at a party election.

Then entered the common factor in Mujuru's rise and fall—Grace Mugabe – as the Mujuru faction realised that gender could be used to counter Mnangagwa's rise, and apparently lobbied Grace.

On her own unsolicited admission recently as she toured the country after being nominated to lead the Women's League, Grace acknowledged that she had effectively campaigned for a woman to be given the vice presidency.

Pivotal role

Ironically, it is the same First Lady who has been most active in destroying her. She is peeved by the fact that Joice did not congratulate her when Oppah Muchinguri and others in the Mnangagwa faction led the campaign for Grace to become the next boss of the powerful Women's League.

This means that the Women's League, which played a pivotal role in elevating Mujuru, is now at the centre of the plot to bring her down.

Muchinguri, apparently to advance the Mnangagwa interests, was active in Grace's elevation. She has not been quiet, in fact. She reportedly accused Mujuru of killing her husband by somehow torching him at the farm house in Beatrice. She has been saluting Grace as "Her Excellency" and has been the First Lady's most avid sidekick during the whirlwind countrywide tours.

It is not clear whether Muchinguri supported Mujuru's elevation then, but she was in charge of the women who sang and ululated to ensure the latter provided a checkmate to Mnangagwa in 2004.

When Mnangagwa organised the Tsholotsho meeting, he was accused by the Mujuru faction of a plot to unseat Mugabe. The Zanu-PF leader got livid when he was told that and must have become scared.

The west

Now Grace insists Mujuru is working with western countries and the local opposition to rid Zimbabwe of her husband. Mugabe has swallowed that hook, line and sinker and seems to believe that Mujuru is, indeed, gunning for his downfall. He is scared because he still wants to rule and cannot countenance a deputy who is reportedly interested in his throne.

Mujuru has stoked the speculation, naively or knowingly. She has publicly acknowledged that Mugabe is getting too old and would one day need a replacement. This is obvious, of course, but you don't say such things in Zanu-PF. She has not supported the ruler's wife and, by implication, has indirectly attacked the ruler himself. Her supporters are publicly opposed to a "bedroom coup".

Mujuru's ultimate elevation relied heavily on Mugabe's support. He insinuated at the 2004 congress that he wanted her to take over from him eventually. Now, it appears he is having second thoughts.

Barring any miracles, Mugabe is likely to support Joice's demotion. Even if he might still not want Mnangagwa in her place, he seems to have made up his mind on Mujuru.

Mnangagwa had the numbers on his side in 2004, but lost because of subtle machinations by the Mujuru camp. Grace says he had eight provinces, even though that has not been confirmed. Similarly, Mujuru, at the moment, has numerical supremacy over Mnangagwa. But those numbers are unlikely to work to her advantage because her demotion will, as in 2004, be determined by an elite few.

Some observers are likely to cry foul at the way in which Mujuru is being treated by her own party, yet others will point at history to argue that what goes around also comes around.