Opinion / Columnist
Zanu PF faction fight, dirty and bloody as it is, is goats fight - the bull elephants fight is coming!
17 Nov 2014 at 09:02hrs | Views
Mugabe and Mnangagwa have struck the killer-blow on the Mujuru faction by suspending Rugare Gumbo, threaten Didymus Mutasa (Mr Gamatox) into silence, firing Jabulani Sibanda from the party and booting out of office many senior Mujuru leaders. There will be few lose ends to be tired up in the remaining two weeks and then they can deliver the coup de grace to Mai Mujuru. No doubt the pair would be tempted to think they will be able to put up their feet and enjoy their victory.
Wrong, Mugabe and Mnangagwa will not rest; there will be no rest for the wicked this side of the grave.
The greatest threat to Mugabe and Zanu PF's struggle hold on power since the regime totally emasculated Tsvangirai and MDC in the July 2013 elections was not the out-out war between the two Zanu PF factions which have been simmering for years. The factional war, short of it being fought out with real guns and bullets, was always going to be more a tassel between goats – "kutungana kwembudzi", as one would say in Shona. The real fight, the big fight, the do or die fight for Mugabe and Zanu PF was with the economy.
The every next trading day following the rigged July 2013 elections, shares in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange tumbled showing that the big movers in every sector of the economy did not like a Mugabe and Zanu PF electoral victory. The gauntlet was for Mugabe and Zanu PF to "rig" economic recovery.
I say "rig" deliberately because there was nothing in Zanu PF election manifesto that gave anyone the confidence the party had any intention to address the root cause of the country's economic problems, hence the fall in ZSE shares. If there was to be an economic recovery without addressing the root causes then that is technically rigging the recovery just as the party had rigged the July 2013 elections by manufacturing votes for the party from voters who do not exist! Indeed the Zanu PF manifesto showed that rig economic recovery is exactly what the party intended to do.
The root causes of Zimbabwe's economic collapse were two composite groups: first, the decades of gross mismanagement and rampant corruption which had resulted in the criminal waste of the nation's human and material resources. Over the years Mugabe had denied these problems even existed insisting the country's economic slow-down, stagnation and then these last ten years, meltdown was caused mainly by "the illegal sanctions imposed by the evil West". The electorate were denied a say in this because Zanu PF has always rigged elections. This has only allowed these cancerous problems to grow and spread infecting every organ of the national economy.
The Zimbabwe economy is in ICU and the prognosis is; the cancers mismanagement and corruption, now the size of tennis balls, have spread to every organ and must be removed or the patient will never recover.
What has made it so difficult for Mugabe to meaningful address mismanagement and corruption is they are at the very heart of his political patronage system he has used to reward those loyal to his political ethos of keeping Zanu PF in power at all cost with himself as its leader. The economic meltdown has resulted in the party's popularity with the electorate plummet, he needed the system now more than ever if he is to stay in power.
The second composite group is to do with the drying up of Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) and foreign aid and loans. Since 2 000 the IMF, WB and most other international institution and nations, including Mugabe's "all wealth friends" the Chinese, have stopped lending money to Zimbabwe because Zimbabwe "is a bad debtor" as the latter told Mugabe to his face in August this year.
The Mugabe regime was earned the reputation of violating investors' property rights especially with the violent seizures of white owned farms. The regime made things worse by passing the indigenisation law in 2007 force foreign investors to sell 51% of their business to locals. Whatever little DFI there was dried up completely!
Mugabe has made the indigenisation law such a core party policy it is hard to see how he can scrap it now without losing face. Even if he was to bite the bullet and scrap this law; with the regime's reputation of disregarding the law, no one would believe him.
Mugabe came up with his ZimAsset recovery which is essential meant to address the causes of the economic problem above by throwing lots and lots of money at them, $27 billion according to his budget. Zimbabwe's national debt, which the regime has failed to service, stands at $10 billion and so Mugabe wanted to increase nearly three times in five years!
After a year and half of frantic begging and selling the nation's future mineral wealth at give-away prices to the Chinese and Russians, Mugabe has only managed to $7 billion towards his ZimAsset and none of it in the critical area of budgetary support.
The last five months factional fighting in Zanu PF has distracted the party and the nation from the teething problem of the seriously sick economy which has seen unemployment soaring to 90% plus, 16% or 2 million Zimbabweans now live in abject poverty, etc. Of course the economic meltdown has not been distracted by the goats fighting, it was continue.
The weeds do not stop growing and choking the crops just because the lazy farmer has gone fishing when he should weeding. When he finally returns to the field, he will find the mice had started harvesting!
The Zimbabwe economy is set to get worse as long as Mugabe and/or Zanu PF remain in power. Most of those Mujuru faction people purged in this fight will lose the jobs and/or their favoured status in contracts, etc.; within a matter of months most of them will be living in abject poverty. One thing is clear; the economic meltdown cannot continue much longer sooner or later Mugabe and Zanu PF will have to accept that they have failed to rig economic recovery.
Once the Zanu PF faction fight, the goats fight, is over the Zanu PF vs economy fight, the elephant-bulls fight, will start. In the economy Mugabe has met more than a match – he cannot bribe, threaten or cheat the economy. The growing army of those living in abject poverty will remind him of their misery, he will not sweep the economic meltdown under the carpet!
Mugabe is a corrupt and ruthless tyrant known for bribing, cheating, rigging elections and even murdering thousands of his political opponents. The economy recovery demands sound economic policies and someone who can be trusted to uphold the rule of law – qualities Mugabe does not have.
Mugabe and Zanu PF will never ever deliver economic and thus will be forced to step down of that we can be as certain as day follows night. The fight with the economic is the one fight Mugabe is certain to lose!
Wrong, Mugabe and Mnangagwa will not rest; there will be no rest for the wicked this side of the grave.
The greatest threat to Mugabe and Zanu PF's struggle hold on power since the regime totally emasculated Tsvangirai and MDC in the July 2013 elections was not the out-out war between the two Zanu PF factions which have been simmering for years. The factional war, short of it being fought out with real guns and bullets, was always going to be more a tassel between goats – "kutungana kwembudzi", as one would say in Shona. The real fight, the big fight, the do or die fight for Mugabe and Zanu PF was with the economy.
The every next trading day following the rigged July 2013 elections, shares in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange tumbled showing that the big movers in every sector of the economy did not like a Mugabe and Zanu PF electoral victory. The gauntlet was for Mugabe and Zanu PF to "rig" economic recovery.
I say "rig" deliberately because there was nothing in Zanu PF election manifesto that gave anyone the confidence the party had any intention to address the root cause of the country's economic problems, hence the fall in ZSE shares. If there was to be an economic recovery without addressing the root causes then that is technically rigging the recovery just as the party had rigged the July 2013 elections by manufacturing votes for the party from voters who do not exist! Indeed the Zanu PF manifesto showed that rig economic recovery is exactly what the party intended to do.
The root causes of Zimbabwe's economic collapse were two composite groups: first, the decades of gross mismanagement and rampant corruption which had resulted in the criminal waste of the nation's human and material resources. Over the years Mugabe had denied these problems even existed insisting the country's economic slow-down, stagnation and then these last ten years, meltdown was caused mainly by "the illegal sanctions imposed by the evil West". The electorate were denied a say in this because Zanu PF has always rigged elections. This has only allowed these cancerous problems to grow and spread infecting every organ of the national economy.
The Zimbabwe economy is in ICU and the prognosis is; the cancers mismanagement and corruption, now the size of tennis balls, have spread to every organ and must be removed or the patient will never recover.
What has made it so difficult for Mugabe to meaningful address mismanagement and corruption is they are at the very heart of his political patronage system he has used to reward those loyal to his political ethos of keeping Zanu PF in power at all cost with himself as its leader. The economic meltdown has resulted in the party's popularity with the electorate plummet, he needed the system now more than ever if he is to stay in power.
The second composite group is to do with the drying up of Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) and foreign aid and loans. Since 2 000 the IMF, WB and most other international institution and nations, including Mugabe's "all wealth friends" the Chinese, have stopped lending money to Zimbabwe because Zimbabwe "is a bad debtor" as the latter told Mugabe to his face in August this year.
The Mugabe regime was earned the reputation of violating investors' property rights especially with the violent seizures of white owned farms. The regime made things worse by passing the indigenisation law in 2007 force foreign investors to sell 51% of their business to locals. Whatever little DFI there was dried up completely!
Mugabe has made the indigenisation law such a core party policy it is hard to see how he can scrap it now without losing face. Even if he was to bite the bullet and scrap this law; with the regime's reputation of disregarding the law, no one would believe him.
Mugabe came up with his ZimAsset recovery which is essential meant to address the causes of the economic problem above by throwing lots and lots of money at them, $27 billion according to his budget. Zimbabwe's national debt, which the regime has failed to service, stands at $10 billion and so Mugabe wanted to increase nearly three times in five years!
After a year and half of frantic begging and selling the nation's future mineral wealth at give-away prices to the Chinese and Russians, Mugabe has only managed to $7 billion towards his ZimAsset and none of it in the critical area of budgetary support.
The last five months factional fighting in Zanu PF has distracted the party and the nation from the teething problem of the seriously sick economy which has seen unemployment soaring to 90% plus, 16% or 2 million Zimbabweans now live in abject poverty, etc. Of course the economic meltdown has not been distracted by the goats fighting, it was continue.
The weeds do not stop growing and choking the crops just because the lazy farmer has gone fishing when he should weeding. When he finally returns to the field, he will find the mice had started harvesting!
The Zimbabwe economy is set to get worse as long as Mugabe and/or Zanu PF remain in power. Most of those Mujuru faction people purged in this fight will lose the jobs and/or their favoured status in contracts, etc.; within a matter of months most of them will be living in abject poverty. One thing is clear; the economic meltdown cannot continue much longer sooner or later Mugabe and Zanu PF will have to accept that they have failed to rig economic recovery.
Once the Zanu PF faction fight, the goats fight, is over the Zanu PF vs economy fight, the elephant-bulls fight, will start. In the economy Mugabe has met more than a match – he cannot bribe, threaten or cheat the economy. The growing army of those living in abject poverty will remind him of their misery, he will not sweep the economic meltdown under the carpet!
Mugabe is a corrupt and ruthless tyrant known for bribing, cheating, rigging elections and even murdering thousands of his political opponents. The economy recovery demands sound economic policies and someone who can be trusted to uphold the rule of law – qualities Mugabe does not have.
Mugabe and Zanu PF will never ever deliver economic and thus will be forced to step down of that we can be as certain as day follows night. The fight with the economic is the one fight Mugabe is certain to lose!
Source - Wilbert Mukori
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