Opinion / Columnist
Diaspora vote deal hangs in the balance
20 Aug 2011 at 19:27hrs | Views
The disclosure that MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai and his Zanu-PF counterpart, Robert Mugabe have reached a deal on the diaspora vote (The Zimbabwe Mail12/08/11) has to be treated with a pinch of salt.
It is pre-mature to celebrate the agreement that will see the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) compiling a report with recommendations on whether or not Zimbabweans abroad could vote in the next polls.
The timing of the "deal" as SADC is due to meet Monday with the Zimbabwe crisis on top of the agenda could be interpreted to mean a tactical move by Zanu-PF to soften SADC's stance in the aftermath of the raid on the House of Assembly by suspected supporters of Robert Mugabe amid growing pressure for security sector reforms and a probe on human rights abuses including Gukurahundi genocide, diamonds massacres and torture camps.
Should it be finally adopted, the D-vote (Diaspora Vote) would be very pivotal in providing the final push to end the dictatorship in Zimbabwe. Therefore, why would Mugabe agree so easily to the D-Vote which could see him becoming a pensioner within 30 days of presidential elections should he still be a candidate?
There are many possibilities. One is that Mugabe and his allies may have finally embraced change as inevitable, but it would be very naïve to assume that possibility when dealing with Zanu-PF.
Alternatively, by agreeing to the D-Vote subject to ZEC recommendations, Mugabe could be using Robert Greene's strategy 33. In his book, The Concise 33 Strategies of War, Profile Books, London, 2008, Robert Greene says strategy 33 entails dominating while seeming to submit.
"To follow the passive –aggressive strategy, you must seem to go along with people, offering no resistance. But actually you dominate the situation. You are noncommittal, even a little helpless, but that only means that everything revolves around you. Some people may sense what you are up to and get angry. Don't worry - just make sure you have disguised your aggression enough that you can deny it exists," Greene says (p 183).
Mugabe seems to be using this strategy in the Diaspora Vote deal until we are proven wrong.
We have been down this road before. For instance, after inviting the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme Review Mission to Zimbabwe from 9-14 August 2010 to assess the situation in the diamond fields, the Government placed a lot of hurdles for the team such as the non-availability of senior officials and politicians due to the country's public holidays from 9-10 August (Heroes Day and Defence Forces Day respectively); attempts to prevent a planned and authorised flyover by the review mission team of the Chiadzwa area and incidents of surveillance and intimidation of interlocutors. These challenges "limited the ability of the review mission team to fully implement its mandate," the KPCS said in its report.
Similarly, Mugabe has in the past consented to an Anti-Corruption Commission but it has not worked due to lack of resources including office space and funds and the Human Rights Commission is in a similar situation.
It remains to be seen if the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission will be able to discharge its mandate since Zanu-pf hardliners with help from ZBC are campaigning for the removal of the ZEC Chairman Retired Judge of the High Court Justice Mtambanengwe, which leaves the Diaspora vote deal hanging in the balance.
----------------------------
Clifford Chitupa Mashiri, Political Analyst, London, zimanalysis2009@gmail.com
It is pre-mature to celebrate the agreement that will see the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) compiling a report with recommendations on whether or not Zimbabweans abroad could vote in the next polls.
The timing of the "deal" as SADC is due to meet Monday with the Zimbabwe crisis on top of the agenda could be interpreted to mean a tactical move by Zanu-PF to soften SADC's stance in the aftermath of the raid on the House of Assembly by suspected supporters of Robert Mugabe amid growing pressure for security sector reforms and a probe on human rights abuses including Gukurahundi genocide, diamonds massacres and torture camps.
Should it be finally adopted, the D-vote (Diaspora Vote) would be very pivotal in providing the final push to end the dictatorship in Zimbabwe. Therefore, why would Mugabe agree so easily to the D-Vote which could see him becoming a pensioner within 30 days of presidential elections should he still be a candidate?
There are many possibilities. One is that Mugabe and his allies may have finally embraced change as inevitable, but it would be very naïve to assume that possibility when dealing with Zanu-PF.
Alternatively, by agreeing to the D-Vote subject to ZEC recommendations, Mugabe could be using Robert Greene's strategy 33. In his book, The Concise 33 Strategies of War, Profile Books, London, 2008, Robert Greene says strategy 33 entails dominating while seeming to submit.
"To follow the passive –aggressive strategy, you must seem to go along with people, offering no resistance. But actually you dominate the situation. You are noncommittal, even a little helpless, but that only means that everything revolves around you. Some people may sense what you are up to and get angry. Don't worry - just make sure you have disguised your aggression enough that you can deny it exists," Greene says (p 183).
Mugabe seems to be using this strategy in the Diaspora Vote deal until we are proven wrong.
We have been down this road before. For instance, after inviting the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme Review Mission to Zimbabwe from 9-14 August 2010 to assess the situation in the diamond fields, the Government placed a lot of hurdles for the team such as the non-availability of senior officials and politicians due to the country's public holidays from 9-10 August (Heroes Day and Defence Forces Day respectively); attempts to prevent a planned and authorised flyover by the review mission team of the Chiadzwa area and incidents of surveillance and intimidation of interlocutors. These challenges "limited the ability of the review mission team to fully implement its mandate," the KPCS said in its report.
Similarly, Mugabe has in the past consented to an Anti-Corruption Commission but it has not worked due to lack of resources including office space and funds and the Human Rights Commission is in a similar situation.
It remains to be seen if the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission will be able to discharge its mandate since Zanu-pf hardliners with help from ZBC are campaigning for the removal of the ZEC Chairman Retired Judge of the High Court Justice Mtambanengwe, which leaves the Diaspora vote deal hanging in the balance.
----------------------------
Clifford Chitupa Mashiri, Political Analyst, London, zimanalysis2009@gmail.com
Source - Clifford Chitupa Mashiri
All articles and letters published on Bulawayo24 have been independently written by members of Bulawayo24's community. The views of users published on Bulawayo24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Bulawayo24. Bulawayo24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.
