Mugabe could make his twilight years last a long, long time

DESPITE exhibiting signs of senility, ruining the economy, and facing emboldened political opposition, President Robert Mugabe could make his twilight years last a long, long time.

The latest episode highlighting Mugabe's shortcomings occurred Tuesday, when the 91-year-old delivered a speech to parliament that turned out to be the same address he gave months before.

Most lawmakers listened respectfully as the strongman pontificated. Maybe they were afraid to speak up.

Mugabe has notoriously used violence and intimidation to maintain his hold on power. He's been Zimbabwe's only head of state since independence from Britain 35 years ago.

Still, the opposition pounced, saying Mugabe should resign. "Speech-gate," as the blunder is being called in Zimbabwe, suggested the president was too old to run the country.

"With respect to our president, at the good ripe age of 91, he has seen better days," said Obert Gutu, spokesman for the opposition MDC-T.

"I think it is now clear that he is no longer fit for purpose."

However, Alexander Noyes, a political science doctoral candidate at Oxford University and Zimbabwe expert, said Gutu might be speaking too soon.

"It's definitely pretty embarrassing," Noyes told VICE News, referring to the twice-told speech.

"It's certainly an indication of his advance age. But this guy has lasted a long time. The West has been talking about what comes next for a decade now.

"The rumour in Zimbabwe is that his mother lived to 104, and his aunt lived to 100."

Mugabe enjoys a tight grip on power, said Noyes. Most elites in the country belong to Mugabe's Zanu PF party and he still controls the military, police, and intelligence services.

"As long as he is there and pulling these strings, I think unfortunately it's going to be tough to bet against him," said Noyes. "He has this big machinery behind him."

Noyes acknowledged that Zimbabwe was facing untold problems under Mugabe, though.

Earlier this year, the president admitted that his policy of seizing land from rich white farmers and redistributing it to poor blacks gutted the country's once-prosperous agricultural sector and delivered a body blow to the economy.

It was an unusually frank declaration.

"I think the farms we gave to people are too large," Mugabe said in February. "They can't manage them."

Zimbabwe has regained some of the ground it lost from the land reforms, but not enough.

In June, the country's central bank decommissioned the worthless Zimbabwean dollar, and, last month, Mugabe floated plans to export skilled workers to neighbouring countries to fight an unemployment rate that trade unions estimate is as high as 85 percent.

The political scene in Zimbabwe also has changed in ways that suggest Mugabe's power is not absolute.

In 2013, Mugabe signed a new constitution that aimed to ease some of the country's draconian laws that curbed civil liberties, a key part of the power sharing agreement.

But the goodwill didn't last for long.

When Mugabe won re-election that year in a decisive victory, he did so amid allegations of widespread voter fraud.

His rivals might use episodes like the bungled speech to score points for the 2018 presidential election, Noyes said, but it would take more than a public relations flub to bring Mugabe down.

"Mugabe is still a master tactician," said Noyes. "That said, some of the pebbles might be coming off the façade."