A tale of two marches

THE main opposition Movement for Democratic Change party is holding its much awaited demonstration in Bulawayo today. But who is noticing?

The only game in town seems to be the highly subscribed Million Man March attended by thousands of people at the Robert Mugabe Square in Harare on Africa Day.

Since the MDC-T announced that it would be holding a demonstration in the country's second city after its violence-filled Harare shindig, the party has been struggling to convince its fractured structures to coalesce around the need to stage a march.

After a sustained period of hibernation during which he was dogged by another scandal involving women, MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai emerged to lead a demonstration attended by hundreds of largely inebriated youths who ran amok, smashing and looting shops in the capital's CBD. Despite the chaos, the MDC leader was buoyed by the turnout and boldly declared during an address to the anarchic crowd that he was ready to challenge President Mugabe at the polls in 2018.

His staunchest followers also revelled in their leader's newly rediscovered mojo and raved about a return to the good old days when Tsvangirai was a demi-god in opposition circles. The MDC-T march was also about testing the waters about the need to go into a coalition with other opposition outfits. Hawks in the MDC-T are keen for Tsvangirai to go it alone in the 2018 polls while moderates are sceptical of taking on Zanu-PF following the 2013 humiliation which saw the ruling party sweeping most of the seats in Parliament and President Mugabe totally annihilating Tsvangirai.

The ongoing demonstrations are meant to be a show of force to other opposition parties that the MDC-T is capable of challenging Zanu-PF on its own hence does not need them and the only coalition it can countenance is that in which it has the majority of senior posts including the leadership of the proposed union.

Today's demonstration is therefore more about political grandstanding and less to do with bread and butter issues affecting the people of Matabeleland. Unfortunately it will fall flat on its face because of a number of factors.

For a start, the demo is a hollow one as Tsvangirai is still incapacitated and will be unable to lead his followers through the wide and clean streets of the City of Kings and Queens.

An undisclosed ailment has struck down the MDC-T leader who is admitted to a Johannesburg hospital and in his absence, the likes of Thokozani Khupe are expected to take his mantle and rally the good people of Bulawayo to sacrifice their precious time to march for a cause they have no idea of. A tall order indeed.

Secondly, the MDC-T structures in Bulawayo are divided along factional lines. Despite being booted from the Senate, Matson Hlalo still has clout particularly in his old stomping grounds of Makokoba and Mzilikazi. His group, which has the tacit support of bigwigs such as Nelson Chamisa, has resisted the imposition of Deputy Mayor Gift Banda as the provincial chairman of Bulawayo and will most likely have been working hard to ensure that the demonstration is scuttled.

Thirdly, the MDC-T is broke after its Western backers abandoned it in the aftermath of the 2013 disaster. Tsvangirai is largely being viewed as a liability having failed to dislodge Zanu-PF and President Mugabe since 2000. There is no capacity to stage a massive demonstration even in the MDC-T's perceived stronghold of Matabeleland simply because such gatherings require massive resources to mobilise people.

The fact that Zanu-PF currently holds six House of Assembly seats in Bulawayo is testament to the MDC-T's waning fortunes and it would be a miracle if it succeeds in this Herculean task. By seeking to proceed with a march even as conditions on the ground point to a monumental failure, the MDC-T is committing political suicide.

In the game of politics, numbers speak for themselves and the massive crowd that greeted President Mugabe when he drove onto the square named after him in Harare on Wednesday should have jolted MDC-T mandarins into thinking twice about their planned demonstration today. Are they prepared to stomach a big flop against the background of their arch nemesis staging the mother of all marches which even critics admitted was beyond anyone's imagination? The jury is still out on that one but everything points to a disaster.