Grand coalition, panacea to Zanu-PF rigging, is dead in water - only excuse left greed

There are those who have tried very hard to sell the idea of a grand coalition bring together Zimbabwe's opposition parties, at least the main ones, as the panacea to end Zanu PF political dominance. The failure by the 17 opposition parties led by Tsvangirai's MDC-T in the National Election Reform Agenda (NERA) grouping to force through even one meaningful democratic reform since the July 2013 rigged elections has increased the pressure to form the coalition considerably.

Selling the idea of the grand coalition as the panacea to the country's political paralysis was one thing getting the coalition itself off the ground has proven to be an impossible task! The first big challenge was deciding who will lead the coalition, no easy task given the hot-air balloon size egos of the two main contenders, Joice Mujuru and Morgan Tsvangirai.

"Former Vice President Joice Mujuru is set to dump Morgan Tsvangirai for the underrated Coalition of Democrats (CODE) following widening differences on strategy and who between the opposition heavyweights should lead the envisaged grand pact," reported New Zimbabwe.

"Mujuru's National People's Party (NPP) and Tsvangirai's MDC-T April this year signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that saw the two parties agree on an elite pact that also sought to keep out all the political minnows.

"However, a recent public spat over the choice of coalition chief has seen Tsvangirai and his party outflank the ambitious former Zanu PF loyalist."

Even if the opposition camp had managed to resolve the coalition leader problem they would have found the next challenge just as demanding - who will be the coalition candidate in each contested seat. In Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe where corruption is rampant and those holding public office rule the roost whilst everyone else has been reduce to a pauper competition to join the ruling elite has become a life and death issue. In all the big political party, primary elections to select the party candidate for each position have been a hotly contested affairs; a grand coalition will have to add the coalition partners' interest to the mix.

There are over 50 political parties in Zimbabwe and successful coalition has to include a number of these parties because just having more than one opposition candidate on the ballot paper would be enough to tip the balance in Zanu PF's favour. Even in opposition stronghold Zanu PF will start with a guaranteed x votes, the party need these for its presidential candidate. So, managing the greed of all the partners in the coalition, enough to stop disgruntled individuals standing as independent candidates or even the briefcase parties walking out of the coalition, is an impossible task!

But even if the miracle of miracles happened, the grand opposition coalition fielding only candidate for most of the contested positions; the results of the elections would be Zanu PF winning the presidency plus the two thirds majority in both houses, just as happened in 2013. The result would only reaffirm what we have known all along, that the grand coalition alone is not enough to stop the Zanu PF vote rigging juggernaut. Still, those claiming the coalition is the panacea would have had cause to crow about it till the result are announced.

Like it or not, the grand opposition coalition is dead in the water. Those who have placed so much faith in the coalition as the panacea for the opposition to contest next year's elections even with no reforms in place have been prematurely silenced and just as well.

It is good that those bend on misleading the nation into believing the grand coalition was a substitute for implementing the democratic reforms have been silenced now and not after the 2018 election results are out when it will be too late. The opportunity to implement the reforms is now before the election and by contesting the flawed elections we forfeit the chance; that is exactly what happened in 2013 when the MDC leaders failed to heed the warning not to contest the elections.

"The worst aspect for me about the failure to agree a coalition was that both MDCs couldn't now do the obvious - withdraw from the elections," acknowledged David Coltart in his book, The Struggle Continues 50 years of tyranny in Zimbabwe.

"The electoral process was so flawed, so illegal, that the only logical step was to withdraw, which would compel SADC to hold Zanu PF to account. But such was the distrust between the MDC-T and MDC-N that neither could withdraw for fear that the other would remain in the elections, winning seats and giving the process credibility."

The only reason, as Coltart readily admitted, the opposition still went on to contest the 2013 elections even when they knew the process was flawed was greed. They were after the few seat they knew Zanu PF was going to give away.

In 2013, the opposition ignored the SADC advice not to contest the elections with no reforms and maintained to the bitter end that the new 2013 constitution would deliver free, fair and credible elections. Having failed to get even one reform implemented and the much talked about grand coalition dead in the water; the opposition have no excuse for ignoring the SADC advice not to contest flawed elections. None!  

The only reason why Morgan Tsvangirai, Joice Mujuru and all the others in the opposition camp are still as keen as mustard to contest the 2018 elections regardless the certainty than Zanu PF will rig the vote is greed. Zanu PF has learnt since the 2008 elections that it will never again have legitimacy problems as long as it allows the opposition to win a few gravy train seats. Of course, no opposition politician will ever admit to being greedy and so they will have to think of some other excuse, no matter how feeble, for contesting the flawed elections - just give them time.