Opinion / Columnist
Politics beyond Mugabe and Tsvangirai critical analysis
27 Oct 2017 at 12:00hrs | Views
Trying to downplay that there is no leadership crisis both in ruling party and opposition is an insult to leadership and governance matters.
There is no doubt that we have a crisis both in the ruling Government and opposition. The only major difference is that in Zanu PF it is well managed whilst in the opposition there is a lot which need to be desired.
In Zanu PF it is difficult to trace those cracks because state machinery is always behind Mugabe with resources as a major factor.
In the main opposition the issue of resources and most guys in the opposition there has nothing to lose if they call shots because they are becoming increasingly impatient because of the period they have been in opposition, so frustration carries the day.
If you look at Mugabe himself probably because of old age and other ailments he has managed himself very well to make sure the issue of succession does not open a cairn of paradox.
Today it has been reportedly that Tsvangirai was airlifted for the second time to our neighboring South Africa.
What people need to understand is that Morgan Tsvangirai is suffering from a terminal illness, we wish him well but looking at the pace at which the opposition leader is being viciously attacked by this terminal disease, there is need for the opposition to put a care taker President in place, in case something happens.
In the MDC there are three Vice Presidents, Khupe, Mudzuri and Chamisa. I think Morgan knew very well that he may not recover on time; hence he had to put an alternative succession plan in place, by appointing the additional two deputies.
Morgan was very wise by doing so; however there is need for people in the MDC to exercise caution diligently to avert another split in the strong opposition movement.
Whilst it is important to note that Tsvangirai is their presidential aspirant, but it is also important to take note of the vacuum that can be created in the event that Tsvangirai becomes incapacitated.
There should be plan B, in place to avert a crisis. If you look in the MDC top brass there could be five people who have the potential to take over from the former trade unionist, and if we screen again the five there could be three potential ones, then if you screen again you can see that there could be two contenders.
The following are possible successors, Mudzuri, Chamisa, Khupe, Komichi and Mwonzora. Khupe being elected VP and at the same time being educated she can stand a chance, she is sober and well articulate but her major problem is that Zimbabweans are not prepared to have a female president for now and tribal ethnics could be also another factor.
Khupe is a bit mature, and she can handle issues in a mature way but her major problem is that she has a lose tongue and she does not know how to handle sensitive things. For example her latest episodes with the MDC leader could be also a blow to her.
Mudzuri stand a better chance as well but he lacks the political charisma and he is not defensive, and he is not prepared to stand the heat, he easily gives up.
Looking at age, maturity, and also being a karanga he can balance things, but there could be a major problem because he once penned a letter to Tsvangirai which was seen in public, he didn't show loyalty and this can be also a challenge.
Remember Mudzuri lost his bid to become the organizing secretary to Chamisa in 2014 congress. Looking at Komichi, he is capable being the deputy national chairman he may have some bit of influence in the party structures, he holds a masters as well, but he lacks political charisma and stamina to also go for presidency and most people don't even know who Komichi is in the MDC party.
Mwonzora being the legal brains in the party he can stand a chance but his major issues are, he has not been in the party for long, remember he was in the Muzorewa party and he joined MDC of late and at the same time the issue of seniority complex could be major issues as well.
Chamisa of the least he is well educated, very popular, he has the charisma, he maintained loyalty to Tsvangirai and he has held very senior positions in the party.
Age is a factor though it may be a challenge to hold presidency and at the same time to maintain the grip in the party structures considering that he has enemies who made sure that he loses the SG post to Mwonzora.
He still stands a better chance. There is a possibility that the Khupe faction may be isolated in the event that they go for an elective congress, Mudzuri faction may unite with Chamisa faction to defeat Khupe and later allow Chamisa to have the Presidency.
Many eyes have been on Chamisa. Chamisa enjoys massive support within and outside the party. Impeccable sources have indicated that Tsvangirai of late has been grooming the young man, he has been accompanying his boss to most sensitive international trips, and he has been leaving him to chair alliance meetings.
Well time will only tell what is exactly on the ground. There have been numerous attempts for people to make us believe that all is well but impeccable sources even within the alliance they are beginning to have a lot of doubt over this leadership vacuum. Time is moving and it is high time MDC should sit down and deal with this matter.
Following options can be considered
1. The standing committee, or national council of the MDC can sit down and appoint a care taker President who will assist Morgan Tsvangirai for full campaigns, and allow Tsvangirai to rest till election time
2. Call for mini elective congress and elect a new leader and Tsvangirai becomes a strong advisor to the elected leader
3. Tsvangirai to take a neutral stance like what Mugabe has done, allow his wife to hit the campaign trail and he relax for a while
4. He may select one candidate amongst the 3 VPS to lead and the other two deputizes the one appointed.
5. Looks for neutral guy within the alliance formation like Biti, and he leads and unites all factions for smooth transition.
PERCENTAGE OF POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS
1. Thokozani Khupe - 53%
2. Elias Mudzuri - 51%
3. Douglas Mwonzora - 37%
4. Morgan Komichi - 31%
5. Nelson Chamisa - 78%
Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo is the Head of Southern Institute of Policy Analysis and Research /SIPAR TRUST. He is also an academic, researcher and policy analyst. He can be contacted at southerninstitutepar@gmail.com
There is no doubt that we have a crisis both in the ruling Government and opposition. The only major difference is that in Zanu PF it is well managed whilst in the opposition there is a lot which need to be desired.
In Zanu PF it is difficult to trace those cracks because state machinery is always behind Mugabe with resources as a major factor.
In the main opposition the issue of resources and most guys in the opposition there has nothing to lose if they call shots because they are becoming increasingly impatient because of the period they have been in opposition, so frustration carries the day.
If you look at Mugabe himself probably because of old age and other ailments he has managed himself very well to make sure the issue of succession does not open a cairn of paradox.
Today it has been reportedly that Tsvangirai was airlifted for the second time to our neighboring South Africa.
What people need to understand is that Morgan Tsvangirai is suffering from a terminal illness, we wish him well but looking at the pace at which the opposition leader is being viciously attacked by this terminal disease, there is need for the opposition to put a care taker President in place, in case something happens.
In the MDC there are three Vice Presidents, Khupe, Mudzuri and Chamisa. I think Morgan knew very well that he may not recover on time; hence he had to put an alternative succession plan in place, by appointing the additional two deputies.
Morgan was very wise by doing so; however there is need for people in the MDC to exercise caution diligently to avert another split in the strong opposition movement.
Whilst it is important to note that Tsvangirai is their presidential aspirant, but it is also important to take note of the vacuum that can be created in the event that Tsvangirai becomes incapacitated.
There should be plan B, in place to avert a crisis. If you look in the MDC top brass there could be five people who have the potential to take over from the former trade unionist, and if we screen again the five there could be three potential ones, then if you screen again you can see that there could be two contenders.
The following are possible successors, Mudzuri, Chamisa, Khupe, Komichi and Mwonzora. Khupe being elected VP and at the same time being educated she can stand a chance, she is sober and well articulate but her major problem is that Zimbabweans are not prepared to have a female president for now and tribal ethnics could be also another factor.
Khupe is a bit mature, and she can handle issues in a mature way but her major problem is that she has a lose tongue and she does not know how to handle sensitive things. For example her latest episodes with the MDC leader could be also a blow to her.
Mudzuri stand a better chance as well but he lacks the political charisma and he is not defensive, and he is not prepared to stand the heat, he easily gives up.
Looking at age, maturity, and also being a karanga he can balance things, but there could be a major problem because he once penned a letter to Tsvangirai which was seen in public, he didn't show loyalty and this can be also a challenge.
Mwonzora being the legal brains in the party he can stand a chance but his major issues are, he has not been in the party for long, remember he was in the Muzorewa party and he joined MDC of late and at the same time the issue of seniority complex could be major issues as well.
Chamisa of the least he is well educated, very popular, he has the charisma, he maintained loyalty to Tsvangirai and he has held very senior positions in the party.
Age is a factor though it may be a challenge to hold presidency and at the same time to maintain the grip in the party structures considering that he has enemies who made sure that he loses the SG post to Mwonzora.
He still stands a better chance. There is a possibility that the Khupe faction may be isolated in the event that they go for an elective congress, Mudzuri faction may unite with Chamisa faction to defeat Khupe and later allow Chamisa to have the Presidency.
Many eyes have been on Chamisa. Chamisa enjoys massive support within and outside the party. Impeccable sources have indicated that Tsvangirai of late has been grooming the young man, he has been accompanying his boss to most sensitive international trips, and he has been leaving him to chair alliance meetings.
Well time will only tell what is exactly on the ground. There have been numerous attempts for people to make us believe that all is well but impeccable sources even within the alliance they are beginning to have a lot of doubt over this leadership vacuum. Time is moving and it is high time MDC should sit down and deal with this matter.
Following options can be considered
1. The standing committee, or national council of the MDC can sit down and appoint a care taker President who will assist Morgan Tsvangirai for full campaigns, and allow Tsvangirai to rest till election time
2. Call for mini elective congress and elect a new leader and Tsvangirai becomes a strong advisor to the elected leader
3. Tsvangirai to take a neutral stance like what Mugabe has done, allow his wife to hit the campaign trail and he relax for a while
4. He may select one candidate amongst the 3 VPS to lead and the other two deputizes the one appointed.
5. Looks for neutral guy within the alliance formation like Biti, and he leads and unites all factions for smooth transition.
PERCENTAGE OF POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS
1. Thokozani Khupe - 53%
2. Elias Mudzuri - 51%
3. Douglas Mwonzora - 37%
4. Morgan Komichi - 31%
5. Nelson Chamisa - 78%
Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo is the Head of Southern Institute of Policy Analysis and Research /SIPAR TRUST. He is also an academic, researcher and policy analyst. He can be contacted at southerninstitutepar@gmail.com
Source - Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo
All articles and letters published on Bulawayo24 have been independently written by members of Bulawayo24's community. The views of users published on Bulawayo24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Bulawayo24. Bulawayo24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.
