That was no Zimbabwe Spring

Hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans have taken to the streets in recent days in protest marches calling for Robert Mugabe to resign and then again to celebrate when the dictator was finally gone. Tens of thousands packed the National Sport Stadium in Harare on Friday for the inauguration of President Mnangagwa while Zimbabweans at home and across the world watched on TV.

Zimbabweans cannot stop smiling. The elation is palpable. The national mood has not been so upbeat since Independence Day in 1980. There is unbounded optimism that a new era has dawned.

However, if we stand back from the emotion and analyse the events of recent weeks, we see that, in reality, all that has happened is that ZANU PF has used the military to get rid of Mugabe and the G40 faction and to tighten their grip on power. They have regained the loyalty and support of the war veterans and we can expect that Joice Mujuru and those who were purged in 2014 will now re-join ZANU PF.
A myth is already emerging that all Zimbabweans came together to remove Mugabe. The reality is that the military and the war veterans cleverly manipulated the emotions of the people and invited them onto the streets in order to give a semblance of legality to the coup that was not a coup. That was no spontaneous popular uprising. The people were manipulated and exploited by those in power. That was no "Zimbabwe Spring".

Heightened emotions seem to have engendered irrational hope regarding the 2018 elections. People do not seem to have realised, or do not want to realise, the implications of what has just happened. The triumvirate of ZANU PF, the military and the war veterans that has deposed Mugabe and purged G40 will never stand by and watch Mnangagwa lose elections and power.

Right now, the majority of people I meet are not willing to listen to such rational thought. Their hatred for Mugabe was so very deep that, as long they do not see him in power, what happens now is of little consequence. People are lionising Mnangagwa simply because he is not Mugabe. It is emotional and irrational.

Mugabe has gone. However Mnangagwa's presidency is not really a new beginning. In his inauguration speech on Friday, Mnangagwa paid tribute to Robert Mugabe, calling him "his father, mentor, comrade-in-arms, and leader". Mnangagwa is a Mugabe clone. His close association with Mugabe began in Mozambique in 1976 and was Mugabe's chief enforcer over a period of 40 years. He is still a subject of U.S. sanctions targeting officials of Zimbabwe's repressive regime.

The man is a monster with blood on his hands. As Mugabe's Minister for State Security from 1980 to 1988 he oversaw ethnic massacres carried out at Mugabe's behest as part of a vicious post-independence power struggle with Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU faction. 20,000 civilians were massacred by Zimbabwe's notorious 5th Brigade, most of them ethnic Ndebele in Matabeleland and Midlands.

On Friday, Mnangagwa spoke boldly about rooting out entrenched corruption in business and the civil service, warning that grief awaits the perpetrators. But this is the man who in in 2012, was specifically named in a Global Witness investigative report, together with his comrade Constantino Chiwenga, as being complicit with ZANU PF and the military elite in using the proceeds from looted diamonds to fund human rights abuses. He also stands accused of corruption and looting diamonds in both Zimbabwe and the Congo.
Human rights groups allege that Mnangagwa has been responsible for ZANU PF's promotion of violence, intimidation and repression as well as illegal administrative procedures to ensure ZANU-PF election success. During the 2008 election campaign, repression was so intense that Morgan Tsvangirai dropped out of the run-off election after more than 200 of his supporters were killed, leaving the way clear for Mugabe to retain power.

The crocodile is not going to change his scales. In his inauguration speech Mnangagwa "humbly" appealed to all of us to "let bygones be bygones". This appeal, almost a throwaway line, can in no way be interpreted as a contrite apology and certainly does not confer any kind of absolution for his crimes.
Mnangagwa and ZANU PF have no respect for human rights. People are so caught up in the elation of seeing the end of Mugabe that they are ignoring a track record that shows Zimbabwe can expect more of the same.
Meanwhile the opposition forces keep bumbling along. They failed to seize the moment and lost whatever chance they had of wrong-footing ZANU PF while the governing party was riven by infighting.

All we have heard from them since the military intervention have been expressions of unrealistic hope that either a Government of National Unity or a National Transitional Authority would be formed. They do not seem to actually understand the difference between the two and some were clearly salivating at the prospect of getting back on the gravy train.

Morgan Tsvangirai must resign immediately. The lesson of the necessity for decisive action when a failing leader is reluctant to nominate a successor and stand down will not have been lost on his colleagues.
When all the emotion dies down and true perspective returns, we will still be a people under the oppressive heel of ZANU PF. The people are being led like lambs to the slaughter of another ZANU PF victory in 2018. Who knows how long Mnangagwa's "honeymoon period" will last but there is no doubt that ZANU PF will use it to build public support to lend the seemingly inevitable result a veneer of respectability. We must continue to fight to remove this blight from our land if we truly want a free, democratic and prosperous Zimbabwe.

If we are to have any chance at all, Nelson Chamisa must step forward to quickly rally the disparate opposition parties into one cohesive force. He must transform the MDC Alliance into the Zimbabwean Alliance and lead a truly united opposition into the election.

Tapson Muchena is an academic and a keen observer of the Zimbabwe situation. He can no longer remain silent. tapson.muchena@gmail.com.