Mwonzora's chances (breaking the bi-partisan Zim politics)

A lot has been said and unsaid concerning the squabbles that have been befalling the once strong and vibrant opposition under the leadership of MR Tsvangirai since the supreme court ruling that nullified the Chamisa ascendancy. What followed we all know. This article is going to focus on Mwonzora's chances of making an impact on the Zimbabwean politics, forget about his chaotic ascendancy because no one will ever contest that and win its now water under the bridge.

What l would like to state clearly and as background knowledge is that the powers of the opposition have been going down since 2008 when MDC got 110 seats in parliament, then 2013 got 60 and then 2018 they got around 40 and if the probability that we learnt at school is to be applied it means the opposition is likely to get 30+/- seats in 2023 unless there comes a third political party. The second thing is that Zanu learnt a big lesson in 2008 with Mugabe clearly telling the politburo Kuti kukurukura hunge wapotswa and from there they made sure that they win the first round election and no room for rerun or runoff.Then thirdly Zanu Pf has monetized politics to an extent that whoever has the money will have more than 50% odds in favour of him before the campaign starts. These 3 are going to serve as the main background in evaluating the successes of Mwonzora.

It is not a secret that Zimbabweans have been in bondage with this Bi-Partisan politics, if you criticize Zanu you become MDC and if you say Chamisa is wrong you automatically become Zanu and that politic approach has made Zimbabweans slaves and deserve freedom. That was witnessed by people voting Simba Makoni by 8% in 2008 and even up to now people voting the likes of Mteki and that's a clear sign that they are tired with ZANU and MDC.So having Mwonzora pushing in with a third option may be received well by millions of Zimbabweans who used to register and not vote in the end for lack of preferred choices.

As l said the opposition powers are declining in Zimbabwe and Zanu is solidifying its positions and that's the sad truth. If there's one thing Mnangagwa new it is the power matrix, he knows how to place himself in power in fact he is the Zimbabwean Putin(Russia) who knows how to silently make everything work for him. So, in this case, the fight for Zimbabwe oppositions is to have a position of the biggest opposition which Chamisa enjoys currently so the battle here is not between Mwonzora and ED or Chamisa and ED but it is Chamisa vs Mwonzora and other oppositions fighting for the position of biggest opposition and from this, its clear ZANU has created an open check for it in 2023.l will explain in another article how Zanu fights to have one-party state while MDC aims is to remain the biggest opposition.

Like l mentioned we are coming from a background where politics is monetized by ZANU, you need money to remain active in politics.ZANU discovered that MDC was so strong in 2000 because of the foreign funding and they rushed in the Political Funds Act which prohibits foreign funding, therefore as it stands all parties have to source their funds internally, now look here. Zanu is well oiled with state resources and apparatus they will simply loot and fund their campaign on top of that huge chunk from the political funds, then Mwonzora as per status quo will get the millions from the political funds wallet and now we have Chamisa and other oppositions which will come through towards election, where will they get the funds coz it is not a secret politics needs money you know in 2018 we saw MDC MPs failing to bring up even fliers and that costed most of them, worse off with the vote-buying in Zimbabwe. So with the money at play we are going to see Mwonzoras chances increasing, we are going to see many crossing the floor from MDC Alliance to MDC-T and then vice versa as we get to 2023 watch out, bag remari rina Mwonzora as it stands.

The other thing that some of us doesn't want to hear is that Mwonzora is equally qualified and a Presidential material. It is absurd to hear some saying he is nothing, hey guys if he managed to hold the position of a Secretary-General of the biggest opposition in Zimbabwe, more so after trouncing the now President of the Party Chamisa who was that strong and vibrant, hmm, to be honest, such person cant be wished away, forget this other election which he lost coz of the factionalism. His promise to usher a new way of politics in Zimbabwe should be met with joy and it shows he is a strategist. Tsvangirai followed the confrontational path and Mugabe was equal to the task and we all know what happened until they discovered it was a waste of time and they sat down and worked together, after Tsvangirai, Chamisa followed the confrontational path and here we are what has it benefited the opposition/s and Zimbabwe at large and now we have Mwonzora who prefer working together for the god of the country to me that's excellent. Obvious MDC A will call him Zanu but that's not something new in the world that's in fact a sign of maturity like in UK politics is not there to make us enemies but to make our country strong. So with this path, Mwonzora is likely to strike the hearts of some conservatives in ZImbabwe and this will give him a chance to make an impact.

How long guys will it take Zimbabweans to agree that people can differ on their views without being used by Zanu. Yes, Zanu can use certain politicians but sometimes its hands may be clean, how long did it take you to know that Biti(2014) was not a Zanu project, Simba Makoni (2008), Ncube and Gibson Sibanda(2005) to mention a few.

What is being said right now that Mwonzora will to get a single seat was also said back then in 2005 when Ncube parted ways wit Tsvangirai but 3 years down the line the Tsvangirai faction was complaining that Ncube has splitter votes and costed us a win, we are seeing the same thing happening again minded politicians should ask questions on who had more odds to his side Mutambara and Ncube in their time (2008) and Mwonzora now till 2023 to me Mwonzora is well-positioned.

For the avoidance of making a long article l would say that Mwonzora stands a big chance become the biggest opposition by 2023 if he plays well but with regards to winning the presidential election that's far fetched coz Zanu has solidified maybe for 2028.

Thanx for the time please note that the view expressed here are the sole views of the writer and cannot be used as the authority, they are subject to acceptance, rejection or be debated upon whichever.

By Kumbirai Stein Chivhuna
steinkumbi@gmail.com