Opinion / Columnist
Is Zimbabwe poll free and fair only if MDC-T wins?
22 Jul 2013 at 04:21hrs | Views
CAN Zanu-PF win a free and fair election? In other words, is it correct to assume that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) - the slice of the three pieces of the MDC that is led by Morgan Tsvangirai - cannot lose a free and fair election?
To understand why Zanu-PF, despite requests from the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) to hold the elections in the middle of August, has insisted on July 31, we must go back to two periods in the evolution of the Zimbabwean political and economic crisis.
First, we must remember that in the post-Matabeleland-massacre period, the 2000 constitutional referendum in which Zanu-PF was trounced by opposition forces marked an important turning point in events that shaped the content of the Zimbabwean crisis in the period leading up to the Global Political Agreement (GPA) and the formation of the government of national unity in 2008. The response of Zanu-PF to the referendum, especially those elements of the response that pertain to the creation of a political climate not conducive to free and fair elections, must be understood in terms of an attempt to erase the political implications of the referendum's outcome by creating a new postreferendum majority that would be in the interests of Zanu-PF.
Second, the referendum result shaped the tactical choices of the MDC, divisions over them, as well as the belief that the MDC cannot lose a free and fair election. In fact, it is this belief in a one-to-one correspondence between free and fair elections and the electoral fortunes of the MDC that bred some of the internal opposition to rolling mass action and stayaways. While people such as Tsvangirai believed that resistance to the undemocratic practices of the Zanu-PF government had to take the form of mass mobilisation and effective election campaigns, others were of the view that the response of the government to mass action would be draconian, resulting in the eradication of the space for free and fair elections.
But it is the failure by President Robert Mugabe to win an outright majority in the first round of the 2008 presidential elections, coupled with the parliamentary majority that was won by the MDC, as well as the decision by Tsvangirai to boycott the second round of the presidential poll, that forced both Zanu-PF and the MDC back to the strategic and tactical choices of the post-2000 referendum period.
The parliamentary victory of the MDC meant that it had succeeded in penetrating the Zanu-PF rural base, while Zanu-PF had failed to penetrate the MDC's urban base. Tactically, the challenge facing Zanu-PF after 2008 was to re-establish the link with its rural base, disrupt the political operations of the MDC on the ground and use the GPA to create distance between the leadership of the MDC and its support base inside and outside the party. For its part, the MDC had to decide whether it should boycott the Sadc-sponsored political process and engage in mass mobilisation in protest against the undemocratic tendencies of the Zanu-PF political machinery, or to stay within the political process in the hope that it would deliver a free and fair election.
I think it can be reasonably surmised that the 2008 parliamentary victory tipped the scale in favour of those who have always been fearful of mass action. It is for this reason that the MDC will be participating in the July 31 election, despite its doubts about the election date being properly aligned to the preparedness of the election authorities.
The thing to remember, though, is the fact that ruling parties seldom agree to an election date unless it maximises their chances of victory. On the other hand, what will the MDC do if it loses an election that international observers deem to be administratively flawed but not as undemocratic and politically flawed as the 2008 poll? Will the MDC accept the result if it wins such an election? Is an election free and fair only if it is won by the MDC?
Ultimately, I hope it is democracy that will triumph in Zimbabwe.
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• Matshiqi is a research fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation.
To understand why Zanu-PF, despite requests from the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) to hold the elections in the middle of August, has insisted on July 31, we must go back to two periods in the evolution of the Zimbabwean political and economic crisis.
First, we must remember that in the post-Matabeleland-massacre period, the 2000 constitutional referendum in which Zanu-PF was trounced by opposition forces marked an important turning point in events that shaped the content of the Zimbabwean crisis in the period leading up to the Global Political Agreement (GPA) and the formation of the government of national unity in 2008. The response of Zanu-PF to the referendum, especially those elements of the response that pertain to the creation of a political climate not conducive to free and fair elections, must be understood in terms of an attempt to erase the political implications of the referendum's outcome by creating a new postreferendum majority that would be in the interests of Zanu-PF.
Second, the referendum result shaped the tactical choices of the MDC, divisions over them, as well as the belief that the MDC cannot lose a free and fair election. In fact, it is this belief in a one-to-one correspondence between free and fair elections and the electoral fortunes of the MDC that bred some of the internal opposition to rolling mass action and stayaways. While people such as Tsvangirai believed that resistance to the undemocratic practices of the Zanu-PF government had to take the form of mass mobilisation and effective election campaigns, others were of the view that the response of the government to mass action would be draconian, resulting in the eradication of the space for free and fair elections.
But it is the failure by President Robert Mugabe to win an outright majority in the first round of the 2008 presidential elections, coupled with the parliamentary majority that was won by the MDC, as well as the decision by Tsvangirai to boycott the second round of the presidential poll, that forced both Zanu-PF and the MDC back to the strategic and tactical choices of the post-2000 referendum period.
The parliamentary victory of the MDC meant that it had succeeded in penetrating the Zanu-PF rural base, while Zanu-PF had failed to penetrate the MDC's urban base. Tactically, the challenge facing Zanu-PF after 2008 was to re-establish the link with its rural base, disrupt the political operations of the MDC on the ground and use the GPA to create distance between the leadership of the MDC and its support base inside and outside the party. For its part, the MDC had to decide whether it should boycott the Sadc-sponsored political process and engage in mass mobilisation in protest against the undemocratic tendencies of the Zanu-PF political machinery, or to stay within the political process in the hope that it would deliver a free and fair election.
I think it can be reasonably surmised that the 2008 parliamentary victory tipped the scale in favour of those who have always been fearful of mass action. It is for this reason that the MDC will be participating in the July 31 election, despite its doubts about the election date being properly aligned to the preparedness of the election authorities.
The thing to remember, though, is the fact that ruling parties seldom agree to an election date unless it maximises their chances of victory. On the other hand, what will the MDC do if it loses an election that international observers deem to be administratively flawed but not as undemocratic and politically flawed as the 2008 poll? Will the MDC accept the result if it wins such an election? Is an election free and fair only if it is won by the MDC?
Ultimately, I hope it is democracy that will triumph in Zimbabwe.
----------------
• Matshiqi is a research fellow at the Helen Suzman Foundation.
Source - BDlive
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