Zanu-PF splits into two formations

DESPITE shrill denials from some quarters, it is now clear and generally accepted that following the ouster of former vice president and party stalwart Joice Mujuru and the dismissal from government of 17 ministers, Zanu-PF has split into two formations.

The unprecedented step by expelled former Zanu-PF secretary for administration Didymus Mutasa, with public backing from expelled former Zanu-PF spokesperson Rugare Gumbo, to formally write to the Speaker of Parliament Jacob Mudenda stating that he remains in the "original" Zanu-PF and that what was formed at the December congress was an illegal Zanu-PF that could not fire him, categorically confirms the Zanu-PF split.

The split can be traced back to rampant factionalism that dogged the party since the 1990s fuelled by fierce jostling to succeed party leader, President Robert Mugabe, who has been at the helm of the party since 1977.

What has happened in Zanu-PF can properly be classified as an outright split of the party because, unlike in the past, where individuals either voluntarily left or got expelled from the party, like the late Edgar Tekere, Margaret Dongo, Dumiso Dabengwa, or Simba Makoni, this time a large number of senior party officials have been dismissed.

And they are not taking it lying down.

In 2004, when Emmerson Mnangagwa had garnered significant party support that could have enabled him to block Mujuru from rising to the vice presidency, Zanu-PF hurriedly amended its constitution to reserve a seat in the party presidium for a woman, and cleared the path for Mujuru to become vice president.

When he was blocked, and several provincial party chairpersons were suspended, Mnangagwa accepted the decision and retreated, instead of fighting it out. Thus a split in the party was averted.

Previously, President Mugabe was able to maintain a tight grip on the party, managing to subdue all factions and keep the party together, often by quickly identifying potential threats to his power and neutralising them before they could gain widespread support within party structures.

When former Zanu-PF secretary-general Tekere challenged President Mugabe he was expelled, and the Zanu-PF constitution was amended to abolish the post of secretary general and centralise power in President Mugabe's post of First Secretary and president of the party.

Given President Mugabe's strong and unquestionable authority at the time, the party remained intact.

Given that Mujuru was number two in the party for a decade, widely viewed as the obvious successor to President Mugabe, and was able to build a formidable following of her own within the party, it was almost inevitable that blocking her would trigger a split.

In addition, the manner in which she was deposed contributed to splitting the party. The hurried, last minute amendment of the Zanu-PF constitution to prevent the election of members of the presidium and allow the President of the party, President Mugabe, to appoint his vice presidents was viewed as unconstitutional and undemocratic.

Also, the very public, relentless, vicious and vitriolic way in which First Lady Grace Mugabe attacked and lampooned Mujuru triggered an avalanche of sympathy and deep support for Mujuru from inside and outside the party.

The harvest of sympathy for Mujuru is much bigger and disgruntlement with her tormentors greater because she is widow whose husband, General Solomon Mujuru died in a suspicious house-fire which some may now believe to be somehow linked to her current political woes.

At 91 years, President Mugabe is probably no longer as powerful, or as politically astute, as he was when he was younger, his grip on the party is slipping, and factionalism has now boiled over into a split down the middle.

The First Lady's entrance into mainstream Zanu-PF politics, although touted as the panacea to end factionalism, compounded the problems for the party.

The Zanu-PF split raises significantly the risk for political chaos, violence and instability within the party and within the country given the party's control and close relationship with the security forces.

There is a danger that widespread violence and human rights abuses will accompany attempts to subdue political opponents within the party.

Already there have been reports of increasing intra-party political violence targeting those perceived to be allies or sympathetic to Mujuru.

From a business and economic development viewpoint, the split paints a picture that both the party and government could soon be engulfed in chaos and instability and this scares off potential investors and undermines prospects for desperately needed foreign investments.

Chances of the government's economic policy blueprint, the Zimbabwe Agenda for Socio-Economic Transformation achieving its stated goal of a new trajectory of economic growth and wealth creation are dashed because of confusion and uncertainty presented by the Zanu-PF split.

The split is dangerous, and could prove fatal for the ruling party. Worse still, it may not be the last split, there could be more in the near future.

The perceived alliance between the First Lady and the Mnangagwa faction is unclear and maybe exaggerated. Removing Mujuru from the race to succeed President Mugabe within Zanu-PF does not mean the battle to succeed the incumbent has been resolved in favour of Mnangagwa.

The succession battle may rage on triggering more fissures and splits unless it is resolved in clear terms.

President Mugabe's recent statements suggesting that his successor may not be either of his vice presidents adds to the confusion. The First Lady remains a wild card in the succession race.

It is not all doom and gloom, however.
The Zanu-PF split presents a key window of opportunity to advance the democratisation and human rights promotion agenda through forging alliances between reform minded elements and one of the two Zanu-PF factions.

The unresolved question of who succeeds President Mugabe is the elephant in the Zanu-PF room.

Now is a good time for President Mugabe to lay out in clear and unambiguous terms the post-Mugabe leadership structure in the party and reach out to make amends with his disgruntled comrades.

The only feasible way to end factionalism and set a basis for the re-unification of Zanu-PF is by resolving the succession question.

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Dewa Mavhinga is a civil society activist and human rights advocate based in South Africa.