Opinion / Columnist
The case for a National Transitional Authority (NTA) in Zimbabwe
21 Jul 2016 at 15:06hrs | Views
As extracted from the PDP Economic Blueprint, titled the Holistic Program for Economic Transformation (HOPE P18 - 21, September 2015)
Zimbabwe is currently facing significant challenges. Never in the history of the country have political, economic and social crises converged with such devastating consequences for the population.
The country's economy suffers from sluggish growth, illiquidity, deflation and unpredictable policies, which have resulted in dysfunctional markets, massive deindustrialization, unemployment and a crumbling infrastructure.
Since the double-digit growth registered in 2010 and 2011- when the Government of National Unity (GNU) was in place - the economy has seen a downward slump, with GDP growth rates decelerating to 4.5% in 2013 and 3.1% in 2014.
Projections for 2015 suggest further decline, while the PDP predicts that the situation will worsen towards 2018, see Graph 16. Zimbabwe is in a recession and is headed towards another period of sustained economic decline; the likelihood is that by 2018 the average growth will be -19% of GDP, if nothing is done to stall and reverse the tide.
The current economic quagmire is one of economic under accumulation, a bi-product of collapsed output and aggregate demand, yet a few years ago the country set itself in the midst of the opposite of the current scenario; that of over accumulation.
Clearly, the centre cannot hold.
Experiences on the African continent have shown that where the centre is not holding, the economy is not delivering, hatred and intolerance are the order of the day, an implosion becomes inevitable.
Post - Mugabe Zimbabwe is likely to see the manifestation of this vulture or chaos scenario in which unconstitutional and undemocratic, violent options become real.
To avert crisis, National Dialogue must unlock an inclusive transition that will reconcile, the competing issues of peace and stability against democracy and change.
In our view therefore, the NTA creates a win-win situation for ordinary Zimbabweans, where stability and peace are reconciled with the imperators of social reconstruction, economic recovery and development.
Even if the worst case scenario does not manifest itself, a post Mugabe government that continues to fudge on and permit the country to sink deeper into economic turmoil characterised by unemployment, hopelessness and fatalism is not an option.
The NTA should thus be established pursuant to convergence. Its functions will be transitional and will be the following:
To attend to the issues of national stability and peace in a possibly very volatile post Mugabe period.
To attend to the implementation of a recovery plan, Zimbabwe Emergency Rescue Strategy (ZERST).
To attend to issues of the breakdown of the social contract, the renewal and rebuilding of the social fabric of the Zimbabwean society.
To attend to the creation of conditions for a sustainable election whenever that election is held.
The creation of the NTA will require national convergence among all stakeholders. In this regard, it is important for ZANU PF, with its faulty majority from the contested 2013 electoral outcome to put national interests first and give Zimbabwe a chance. Equally it is incumbent upon exhausted players in opposition parties to stand aside and give Zimbabwe a chance.
The region, through the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and indeed the African Union (AU), must revive and restate its mandate of curatorship over Zimbabwe, established at the SADC Extra-Ordinary Summit in Mozambique on 29 March 2007. SADC therefore must help in the negotiations on the setting up of the NTA and at the same time must provide guarantor and oversight over the same.
As Extracted from the PDP Political Roadmap titled, the AGENDA FOR THE RESTORATION AND REHABILITATION OF ELECTORAL SUSTAINABILITY (ARREST P18 - 19, September 2015)
CANON B - National Transitional Authority (NTA)
HOPE recognizes that the situation now is so dire and desperate that an urgent political solution is required now and more so, in the post Mugabe era.
In this regard, HOPE proposes the establishment of NTA to oversee the country between now and the date of the next election
The Functions of the NTA will thus be as follows:
To attend to the issues of national stability and peace in a very volatile post Mugabe period.
To attend to the implementation of Zimbabwe Emergency Rescue Strategy (ZERST); program which the PDP envisages will solve the current economic meltdown.
To attend to the restoration of the Social Contract, national vision, renewal and rebuilding through a holistic program of national justice, reconciliation, peace building, tolerance and moral rearmament.
And importantly, to attend to the creation of conditions for a sustainable election whenever that election is held.
The PDP's justification for calling for such a Transitional body as the NTA is that Zimbabwe's woes cannot be fixed by the same crop of failed leaders who created it. The PDP firmly believes that it is time that both ZANU PF and the disjointed opposition movements stepped aside and gave Zimbabwe a genuine chance at economic and social recovery
The country's economy suffers from sluggish growth, illiquidity, deflation and unpredictable policies, which have resulted in dysfunctional markets, massive deindustrialization, unemployment and a crumbling infrastructure.
Since the double-digit growth registered in 2010 and 2011- when the Government of National Unity (GNU) was in place - the economy has seen a downward slump, with GDP growth rates decelerating to 4.5% in 2013 and 3.1% in 2014.
Projections for 2015 suggest further decline, while the PDP predicts that the situation will worsen towards 2018, see Graph 16. Zimbabwe is in a recession and is headed towards another period of sustained economic decline; the likelihood is that by 2018 the average growth will be -19% of GDP, if nothing is done to stall and reverse the tide.
The current economic quagmire is one of economic under accumulation, a bi-product of collapsed output and aggregate demand, yet a few years ago the country set itself in the midst of the opposite of the current scenario; that of over accumulation.
Clearly, the centre cannot hold.
Experiences on the African continent have shown that where the centre is not holding, the economy is not delivering, hatred and intolerance are the order of the day, an implosion becomes inevitable.
Post - Mugabe Zimbabwe is likely to see the manifestation of this vulture or chaos scenario in which unconstitutional and undemocratic, violent options become real.
To avert crisis, National Dialogue must unlock an inclusive transition that will reconcile, the competing issues of peace and stability against democracy and change.
In our view therefore, the NTA creates a win-win situation for ordinary Zimbabweans, where stability and peace are reconciled with the imperators of social reconstruction, economic recovery and development.
Even if the worst case scenario does not manifest itself, a post Mugabe government that continues to fudge on and permit the country to sink deeper into economic turmoil characterised by unemployment, hopelessness and fatalism is not an option.
The NTA should thus be established pursuant to convergence. Its functions will be transitional and will be the following:
To attend to the issues of national stability and peace in a possibly very volatile post Mugabe period.
To attend to the implementation of a recovery plan, Zimbabwe Emergency Rescue Strategy (ZERST).
To attend to issues of the breakdown of the social contract, the renewal and rebuilding of the social fabric of the Zimbabwean society.
To attend to the creation of conditions for a sustainable election whenever that election is held.
The creation of the NTA will require national convergence among all stakeholders. In this regard, it is important for ZANU PF, with its faulty majority from the contested 2013 electoral outcome to put national interests first and give Zimbabwe a chance. Equally it is incumbent upon exhausted players in opposition parties to stand aside and give Zimbabwe a chance.
The region, through the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and indeed the African Union (AU), must revive and restate its mandate of curatorship over Zimbabwe, established at the SADC Extra-Ordinary Summit in Mozambique on 29 March 2007. SADC therefore must help in the negotiations on the setting up of the NTA and at the same time must provide guarantor and oversight over the same.
As Extracted from the PDP Political Roadmap titled, the AGENDA FOR THE RESTORATION AND REHABILITATION OF ELECTORAL SUSTAINABILITY (ARREST P18 - 19, September 2015)
CANON B - National Transitional Authority (NTA)
HOPE recognizes that the situation now is so dire and desperate that an urgent political solution is required now and more so, in the post Mugabe era.
In this regard, HOPE proposes the establishment of NTA to oversee the country between now and the date of the next election
The Functions of the NTA will thus be as follows:
To attend to the issues of national stability and peace in a very volatile post Mugabe period.
To attend to the implementation of Zimbabwe Emergency Rescue Strategy (ZERST); program which the PDP envisages will solve the current economic meltdown.
To attend to the restoration of the Social Contract, national vision, renewal and rebuilding through a holistic program of national justice, reconciliation, peace building, tolerance and moral rearmament.
And importantly, to attend to the creation of conditions for a sustainable election whenever that election is held.
The PDP's justification for calling for such a Transitional body as the NTA is that Zimbabwe's woes cannot be fixed by the same crop of failed leaders who created it. The PDP firmly believes that it is time that both ZANU PF and the disjointed opposition movements stepped aside and gave Zimbabwe a genuine chance at economic and social recovery
Source - PDP
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