Zanu PF Has an Upper Hand in 2018 (Afro Barometer Report Analysis)

In 2013 the main opposition dismissed the afro barometer as fraudulent and biased but the truth be told MDC was heading for disaster. I've interacted with many politicians, academics, civic society, individuals and in my assessment and opinion MDC and the opposition at large are very arrogant and do not take anyone's advice seriously. In fact they lack intellectual experience when dealing with national matters. In 2013 they were told that definitely you are likely to lose the watershed elections they showed their arrogance. Today I'm making a very critical analysis on why Zanu Pf has an upper hand in 2018 national elections. As an academic I'm not going to take sides but rather scrutinise, synthesize everything so that at the end truth will be unveiled as it is. In this critical analysis I will also reveal why Zanu Pf is heading for victory and why Mdc is likely to fall by the way side.

Take People's Advice Seriously

Zanu Pf is a very strategic party with academic gurus behind them who know what is on the ground whilst MDC and other parties are busy debating on the social media the whole day when Zanu Pf is on the ground campaigning tirelessly. The MDC top leadership do not take people's advice seriously, very arrogant, they are far from people, far from reality, when you give them advise they turn their back on the advisors and this gives them the impression that they are on top of the situation. When Zanu Pf saw that they lost the Norton seat they quickly regrouped and they are already on the ground whilst the opposition they are busy arguing and make wrong analysis and impressions that things are alright. When you give them advice you are labelled as CIO or state operative.

Social Media Does Not Vote

Majority of MDC and other opposition parties are on the social media the whole day whilst their opponent are campaigning in the rural areas. They are tied up with ZEC matters and it's done deliberately whilst Zanu Pf is busy giving people food in rural areas. People do not eat social media, they eat mealie meal, they want inputs, and they believe command agriculture is their way of sustaining their livelihood. How many people are using what's app, Facebook in rural areas? None. Almost every week they are holding meetings in rural areas talking to people whether it be propaganda or whatever message but the truth is people are fed with information in rural areas.

Rural Vote in Critical in 2018 Elections

Whichever party that is going to penetrate the rural folk is likely to carry the day there is no secret about it. Rural population is Zimbabwe constitute 65 percent of the electorate whilst 35 percent is in urban areas. ZEC will unveil more polling stations in rural areas to make sure everyone will vote and most likely there will be minimum polling stations in urban areas. Rural electorate do not even know anything about policies, economic plans what they know is food security, inputs and land. What has the opposition done to provide food to the rural folk as an alternative to gain vote sympathy in rural areas? Absolutely nothing. That is where the major difference is. There is nothing like rigging and people should stop rigging claims, if the opposition loses 2018 elections they should stop barking.

MoU & Press Conferences Not a Solution for Now

These opposition leaders they set for their supporters and it's their supporters who suffers. They called for mass protests, rallies unfortunately majority of their supporters will be beaten and teargased whilst them they will be holding press conferences in hotels after that they receive allowances in the comforting zones of Monomotapa and holiday inn. Zanu Pf does not respond to stupid matters, they will be on the ground campaigning. If anyone is thinking that Zanu Pf will lose sleep over 2018 elections is joking, they have done their mathematics very well they know their figures, they do not hold press conference they are busy mobilizing resources and in fact they have enough resources for 2018 whilst the opposition is totally broke, they have nothing.

Resources to Bankroll Elections

From my understanding Zanu Pf has gathered its own resources with already 365 cars and MDC and other like-minded parties have nothing at hand. I know many people do not want to hear this, but truth be told how do you campaign without resources? Zanu Pf have ministers, MPs, business people, investors who want to protect their interests whilst MDC is luring people who have resources. In 2013 from my understanding people like Biti, Mangoma did not handle party funds in a proper manner and as we speak the donor community is fuzzed with this kind of information. For one to win an election you need to have enough resource to finance its operations.



Coalition Issues Versus Reality on the Ground

What the opposition does not know is that Zanu Pf is already making them seized with coalition issue whilst them they are campaigning. What you are going to see is that by November 2017, coalition issue will still be hotly contested especially the issue of who will lead the coalition. It is well known in the public domain that Tsvangirai is the biggest political brand in Zimbabwe so why then do you spend months and months trying to table the issue which is already in the public domain. That is the tactic of Zanu Pf to make them forget the real game. Morgan in 2013 was busy enjoying perks whilst Zanu Pf was regrouping for victory. So why then do you claim rigging when you are not even on the ground?

Fielding Wrong Candidates in Consitutencies

In 2013 the opposition lost because of the issue of candidates. The issue of candidates was very critical. In fact Chamisa was partly responsible for MDC's loss in 2013. For example in Rusape central MDC had to field two candidates and both candidates pulled a maximum of 3000 votes whilst Chinamasa pulled nearly 4000 votes and they delivered victory to Chinamasa. Had they brought their figures together they were going to get 6000 votes. The organizing department was busy creating parallel structures putting their own people which made them to loose. I think political parties if they are to be successful they need to move away from the issue of holding primary elections and use the adoption system. Adoption system is very important because it helps the party to scrutinise candidates before they make their way to parliament. Parliament is a critical institution for making crucial decisions for the country therefore they need to recommend people of integrity.

Election Message

What delivers victory is the kind of message you deliver to the electorate. I was listening to Mashakada's economic projection report for five year plan I tell you as an academic it's not real to create 100 billion economy in 5 years considering the issue of rebuilding the country. MDC needs to be very careful when making such utterances in public, Zimbabweans are very intelligent and well sophisticated with information, and it's not real what he said. MDC should not be such desperate for power to the extent of lying to Zimbabweans and the international community at large that they will create 100 billion economy. What then will happen is if they win then they try to adjust and they will be forced to make a major climb down on such crucial matters. Look at Zanu Pf they claimed that they will create 2 million jobs only to discover that they created 3 posts only. People are going to make crucial evaluation before they cast their vote. Zanu Pf should never take it lightly that people have forgotten.

Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo is an academic and he writes in his personal capacity as the Head of Mentorship Institute of National Development and Sustainability (MINDS) which is responsible for policy research and analysis. He holds a M.A in Development Studies from University of Lusaka, Zambia. He can be contacted at greatorminds@gmail.com