'This is clearly a coup'

For the last eighteen months I have been warning of a gathering perfect storm in Zimbabwe - the unique convergence of several factors including Robert Mugabe's frailty, his inability to hold his own party together, disunity in the opposition, a collapsing economy, a region distracted by its own domestic problems and an international community focused on Isil terrorism and Brexit. The de facto take over by the Zimbabwean military is its inevitable result.

The military have been at pains to argue that this is not a coup d'etat and that they are acting within the constitution. Their announcements still recognise Mugabe as president. They have reassured all concerned that their focus is on ZANU-PF - which they feel has been hijacked by a cabal around Grace Mugabe. It is clear that their intention is to ensure that former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa takes over, and in so doing prevent a Mugabe dynasty.

Yet this is clearly a coup. Mugabe has been effectively under house arrest since Tuesday. The constitution makes it clear that troops can only be deployed "with the authority of the President". The military have arrested Cabinet Ministers, a power solely reserved for the Attorney General and police. By law, this is treason writ large. But the main reason the Generals are so anxious that this not be described as a coup is because they know that both the African Union and Southern African Development Community will not recognise any government which emerges from a coup. Given the calamitous plunge of the Zimbabwean economy the Generals understand that they cannot keep a restive population at bay if they don't stabilise the economy quickly; and to do that they need international support.

Undoubtedly they have calculated that there is such distaste for a Mugabe dynasty that the world will look the other way. There are indeed many who are quietly celebrating the Mugabes' political demise. In my view that is foolhardy. Aside from the obvious illegality, which no democrat can rejoice in, there is a more fundamental concern. Some of the coup's Generals participated in the genocide which occurred in the 1980s in Matabeleland, in the gross violence perpetrated against the opposition MDC in the last 17 years and the subversion of the 2013 general election. Accordingly there is a danger that the intention of the Generals is not to move Zimbabwe towards democracy, but to ensure that one of their own remains in control of ZANU PF and the country.

So while the end of Mugabe's ruinous tenure is welcome, that must not blind Zimbabweans and the international community to the need to respect the constitution. Although the military action is a fait accompli, it must be made clear that their actions will not be ignored unless there is a rapid return to civilian rule and strict compliance with the constitution in the lead up to the elections scheduled for next year. If Mugabe is forced to resign from office, that should not automatically result in any successor being recognised as legitimate. A resignation induced by coercion is as illegal as a president being deposed.

However we cannot avoid the need for a practical solution to the legal and political quandary Zimbabwe is now placed in. That solution will be found in the formation of a transitional civilian government and the holding of elections next year which fully comply with the letter and spirit of the constitution. This includes the state controlled media being opened up to all parties, all Zimbabwean citizens being enabled to register and vote (including citizens in the diaspora) and the Electoral Commission being run by non-partisan technocrats.

Anything less than this will simply perpetuate Zimbabwe's problems. The current situation provides an opportunity for our country to embrace democracy, which in turn is the key prerequisite for long term stability and economic development. Britain has an important role to play in this regard. It has the economic strength and historical interest to rally financial support to stabilise the Zimbabwean economy and assist in attracting desperately needed investment. But it needs to exercise this leverage judiciously. It must act in concert with regional powers, particularly South Africa, to insist on an irreversible process towards free and fair elections."