Mnangagwa succession takes centre stage in Zanu-PF

Zanu-PF finds itself in a familiar predicament as President Emmerson Mnangagwa's supporters aggressively advocate for his potential extension of presidency beyond 2030, despite his current term ending in 2028 following his ascent to power in a 2017 coup against Robert Mugabe. Legal experts underscore that Mnangagwa, at 81 years old, cannot benefit from any constitutional amendment to eliminate presidential term limits.

Reports suggest Mnangagwa's loyalists are strategizing to disrupt or delay elections to prolong his tenure, echoing past tactics employed by his administration. Political analysts draw parallels between Mnangagwa's ambiguous stance on succession and that of Mugabe, whose reluctance to designate a successor ignited bitter internal strife culminating in the 2017 coup.

During Grace Mugabe's tenure as first lady, she famously proposed that Mugabe could rule from his grave, symbolizing the extreme measures some within Zanu-PF were willing to entertain to maintain power. Her challenges for Mugabe to name a successor highlighted the divisions within Zanu-PF over leadership succession.

Mugabe himself refused to identify a successor, asserting that none of his subordinates possessed the political stature necessary to unite the party and fend off opposition challenges. His eventual ousting by the military in 2017 underscored the consequences of unresolved succession tensions within the party.

Despite Mnangagwa's pledge to retire at the end of his current term, his handling of succession issues continues to fuel speculation and internal jockeying for position, reminiscent of the uncertainty that characterized Mugabe's final years in power.

Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga emerges as a potential successor to Mnangagwa, but factions loyal to the incumbent are reportedly actively working to undermine Chiwenga's ambitions. Mnangagwa's supporters have rallied behind the slogan "2030 VaMnangagwa Vanenge Vachipo" (Mnangagwa will remain until 2030), sparking fierce internal strife over the party's leadership future.

The intensifying internal conflict within Zanu-PF poses risks to the party's unity and the nation's stability, heightening the stakes for all involved. Zanu-PF's political commissar, Munyaradzi Machacha, has emphasized that succession discussions are premature, affirming Mnangagwa's stated intention to retire in 2028.

Publicly, Mnangagwa has disavowed any plans to extend his presidency beyond 2028, yet his supporters have persistently promoted the "2030" slogan at official events, indicating ongoing factional struggles within the party.

Critics argue that Mnangagwa is employing similar authoritarian tactics as Mugabe to consolidate power, leveraging party structures and state machinery to secure his position. The military's reported opposition to Mnangagwa's ambitions highlights internal divisions over the party's leadership trajectory.

Political analysts express doubts about Zanu-PF's ability to achieve a smooth and democratic transition of power, citing entrenched factionalism and opaque political practices. Eldred Masunungure notes the reluctance of aspiring leaders within Zanu-PF to openly declare their intentions, suggesting a secretive approach to succession planning.

Masunungure further questions Mnangagwa's commitment to fostering democratic processes within Zanu-PF, given the party's centralized control under his leadership. He predicts that Mnangagwa will likely endorse a preferred successor and mobilize party support accordingly, mirroring Mugabe's authoritative approach to leadership.

Professor Stephen Chan highlights concerns that Zanu-PF's succession battle may stifle opportunities for younger generations to ascend to leadership roles within the party. He critiques the party's historical suppression of opposition and internal dissent, suggesting a continuation of power dynamics favoring the gerontocracy of liberation war veterans.

Zanu-PF faces significant challenges as it navigates the complexities of leadership succession, with implications not only for the party's internal cohesion but also for Zimbabwe's political stability and democratic future.