Mnangagwa contemplates declaring State of Emergency?

Sources within Zimbabwe's security apparatus have revealed that President Emmerson Mnangagwa is considering declaring a state of emergency in the coming days, as tensions escalate ahead of planned nationwide protests on March 31. The protests, fronted by military-backed war veterans led by Blessed Geza, aim to oust Mnangagwa from power. The protests have sparked growing concerns within the government about the potential for widespread unrest.

The mounting unrest comes in the wake of a series of unsettling incidents, including the ominous burning of cars outside the premises of Mnangagwa's business allies in Harare and surrounding areas. Sources close to the situation suggest these acts of arson serve as a stark warning of the trouble ahead, with war veterans accusing the businessmen of financing Mnangagwa's 2030 campaign to extend his rule beyond the constitutionally mandated two terms. This move is seen as a direct challenge to Zimbabwe's democratic framework and has stirred significant political unease.

The protests have ignited a fierce power struggle within Mnangagwa's government, with Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga also embroiled in a battle to secure the nation's top position. Chiwenga, once seen as Mnangagwa's closest ally, has become a significant rival in the race for succession. This internal political rift adds to the already volatile situation, with Mnangagwa reportedly seeking ways to solidify his hold on power.

In a move perceived by many as part of a broader coup-proofing strategy, Mnangagwa recently dismissed Zimbabwe National Army commander Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe. Sanyatwe has been demoted to the position of Sports Minister, a surprising shift that analysts believe is part of Mnangagwa's efforts to solidify his position ahead of potential unrest. Major-General Emmanuel Matatu, a figure from Gokwe in Midlands province, has been appointed to replace Sanyatwe. The reshuffle is seen as a tactical maneuver to further entrench Mnangagwa's control over the military, ensuring loyalty within the ranks.

Amidst the growing tensions, Zimbabwe's police forces have been heavily deployed across the country, ostensibly to block or break up the planned protests. The police presence has been ramped up in major cities, signaling the government's readiness to respond to any potential unrest. The military, however, has remained conspicuously silent on the matter, instead issuing a warning to civilians not to wear military regalia, a move that has raised eyebrows given the usual show of force by the army under such circumstances.

A state of emergency, which can suspend normal constitutional procedures in times of crisis, is one option the government may pursue to restore order. The declaration would grant the government enhanced powers, including the possibility of implementing a curfew, restricting movement during specific hours to maintain public order. Such measures have been historically used by governments around the world to quell political unrest, but they also raise concerns over human rights violations, particularly given Zimbabwe's past under previous states of emergency.

Zimbabwe has faced significant human rights abuses under emergency powers in the past, leading to skepticism regarding the true motives behind any potential declaration. Civil liberties, including freedom of speech and assembly, have been severely curtailed during times of political instability, with opposition groups and activists often bearing the brunt of government crackdowns.

As the political situation intensifies, the world will be watching closely to see whether President Mnangagwa will indeed take the drastic step of declaring a state of emergency. The outcome of the March 31 protests, and the government's response to them, will likely have profound implications for Zimbabwe's future political landscape and its commitment to democratic principles.