How #Mugabe turned into the anti-Mandela

No two men in recent years have dominated the liberation of Southern Africa more than Nelson Mandela and Robert Mugabe. But their legacies are strikingly different: Mandela is remembered as a beacon of brotherhood while Mugabe stands as one of Africa's most ruthless tyrants.

What would have happened in Zimbabwe if Mugabe had ruled his country like Mandela ruled South Africa?

These may indeed turn out to be the final days of Zimbabwe's old and ill Robert Mugabe, but there will little reason to celebrate. It will take more than simply shoving a doddering 93-year-old aside to rescue Zimbabwe from its continuing descent into hell.

The surprising move this week by Zimbabwe's generals against President Mugabe was no act of political remorse. These generals are part of the same corrupt political elite that has looted Zimbabwe for years. Fearing that their leader was about to turn on them, it was their effort to protect the status quo and their central role in it.

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, troops and tanks were stationed around the capital city of Harare. Zimbabwe's generals announced that Mugabe and his family are "safe and sound," effectively under house arrest. Those closest to his wife, first lady Grace Mugabe, were reported to be arrested.

That was the first clue as to what was going on. The trigger that spurred the military into action appeared to be Mugabe's firing of his vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa — a veteran of Zimbabwe's liberation war widely admired by the military — accusing him of "disloyalty, disrespect and deceitfulness."

His firing appeared to have a devious motive. It made it possible for the president's unpopular wife to succeed her husband, and that was a bridge too far for the military to accept. Widely dismissed as "Gucci Grace" for her lavish shopping, she was seen to represent the youth wing of Mugabe's party, ZANU-PF, and was considered hostile to Zimbabwe's old guard.

It may be some time before we know the final details of who will take over as Zimbabwe's ruler. But it seems virtually certain that, after 37 years in power, Mugabe's often-bloody reign is about to end.

On a continent that is still navigating its way after many decades of colonial rule, that will be a message for other African dictators who desperately cling to power in the face of growing public unrest. It will also be a reminder of the original pride and promise of Robert Mugabe when he first took over the newly independent nation of Zimbabwe in 1980.

Winning the guerrilla war by 1980 against the white Rhodesian regime made him a hero in Africa and beyond. The country's economy emerged from the war intact and there was considerable goodwill from western governments and businesses. Many educated whites who had fled the country in the 1970s returned home.

I remember my first visits to Zimbabwe and South Africa in the 1980s as a CBC journalist. With Mugabe hailed as a saviour, this was a time when Zimbabwe, much more so than South Africa, was regarded as a potential model for the rest of Africa.



But gradually it turned sour. Mugabe was ruthless in his abuse of power and the killing of dissidents, which left more than 20,000 dead. His response to any political opposition was to eliminate them. Mugabe's family and ruling elite were also notorious for looting the country and stripping it of its wealth.

But above all, Mugabe resented the enduring white presence in Zimbabwe. Among other moves, he launched a disastrous reform program that encouraged the violent takeover of white-owned farms, which were the backbone of the country's farming sector.

That was the direction Mugabe had set out for Zimbabwe when Nelson Mandela emerged from his South African prison in the early 1990s. Even though Mandela's personal background was strikingly similar to Mugabe's, Mandela chose an entirely different direction for his country. He preached reconciliation between the races and continually called for national unity.

Mugabe was always scornful of Mandela's tolerant treatment of whites: "Mandela has gone a bit too far in doing good to the non-black communities … That's being too saintly, too good, too much of a saint," he told South Africa's Sunday Independent newspaper in 2013.

With the euphoria of their early years of liberation long past, both countries now face formidable challenges. But Zimbabwe's future appears far bleaker.

Robert Mugabe's departure from the scene will undoubtedly be welcomed by most Zimbabweans. But the wreckage this once-heroic figure leaves behind will surely define his place in history.

Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.