Tsvangirai practically annoints Chamisa

To those who may think that Tsvangirai will contest the 2018 elections, forget, there is nothing like that. It is almost clear that Chamisa is the most preferred successor. From the onset look of things, Chamisa will succeed Tsvangirai in the run up to harmonized elections. Tsvangirai has set the tone already, with Chamisa his most preferred successor being given key assignments towards 2018 harmonized elections. Tsvangirai knew his game very well, given the node that he has been in this game way before, he was very calculative.

I will start to explain circumstances that led to this decision. Off course many people have questions of Tsvangirai managed to do it, but this is very simple, Tsvangirai started long back to groom Chamisa by giving him key assignments. Chamisa was very strategic, he was very loyal to Tsvangirai, he was neutral and he waited for his time. Politics has dynamics and given the node that Chamisa has age on his side, it will be very difficult for other top gurus to challenge him. Tsvangirai has set the pace already and it is now very difficult for some competitive guys to join the race. As you all know that although this was a democratic struggle, but Tsvangirai had a very big say in the day to day running affairs of the party.

In the previous congress, Chamisa contested the SG post and he lost to Mwonzora because of several factors. The first issue was that initially Tsvangirai had endorsed Mwonzora and Chamisa was told to withdraw from the SG race but Chamisa insisted, and Tsvangirai prevailed. I think it would be very difficult for Khupe or any other stalwart to challenge Chamisa given the node that Tsvangirai has already set the record straight in his message and other styles of leadership. The former trade unionist appointed the young turkey to lead the candidate selection process countrywide, and if you look at this, it is a crucial and key exercise that cannot be trusted to any other individual other than his close lieutenant. Khupe did not play her cards well and it looks like she has already fallen by the way side.

The former prime minister also made it clear that Chamisa will address all rallies country wide towards the harmonized elections. So what does the Mdc wants further to prove that Tsvangirai has already appointed his preferred successor. The alliance project was for two ideas, the first one to unite the Movement, and the second one was to manage his exit and anoint a successor.

For now he can't say it loud until he is done with other formalities, to anyone who is normal you can easily tell that he has already passed the baton. Khupe looks good but, she carries a tribal tag which will be very difficult for her to go through, to me Khupe sounds good though, she is also too quiet, she is not a vocal politician. Looking at Mudzuri he is also a good politician, sober as well, though he is too quiet, he is not that vocal in politics as well. There are so many potential guys in the movement but their main challenge will be either political dynamics or grassroots connectivity. Politics is a game of numbers, and outdoing each other. To me the way I see Chamisa has succeeded mainly because he is visible, loyal and vocal. He is also very calculative, he knows where and when to strike.

Look Biti was pushed out, Chamisa remained Gibson Sibanda and Ncube left, Chamisa remained, Khupe has some squabbles with her boss, but if you look at Chamisa, he was a bit loyal and he would not challenge his boss openly. With Mwonzora, he is a good lawyer but he lacks the political clout to manoeuvre the povo or crowd. Douglas is intelligent, very strategic as well but his main challenge is that he does not have the clout for now. I would suggest that he remains the SG of the party with his experience he can be a better candidate in future. If you check very well you would discover that in all alliance meetings, Tsvangirai preferred Chamisa to represent him in all alliance meetings, leaving other deputies Khupe and Mudzuri. Komichi could be another guy, with potential but his main challenge is the visibility outside MDC.

The advantage Chamisa has is that Chamisa popular within and outside MDC. Chamisa is popular with young generation, whilst Khupe is popular with the small section of Matabeleland, and Mwonzora is also popular within a small section of Manicaland. Given the node that the movement goes for an elective congress whilst Tsvangirai is still alive, Chamisa is likely to carry the day. If you look at Harvest House already the dynamics clearly shows that Chamisa is in control of key institutions and organs of the party. Although Chamisa lost the SG post to Mwonzora; he still wields support within the standing committee. The dynamics that led to Mwonzora to win was based on Tsvangirai's political clout and maneuvering. Whatever Tsvangirai said in the past carried the day, so to me people within the party still respect Tsvangirai's decision.

Yes off course they may be different fissures here and there but I don't think there will be a major split because majority of the structures are likely to listen to the voice of Tsvangirai. Of Mdc decides for an elective congress it will be an endorsement, looking at the current dynamics, I don't think there will be someone with clear guts to challenge Chamisa given the full backing of the former trade unionist. For now we can simply say the keys have been given to Chamisa.

Of recent Tsvangirai appointed Chamisa to head all parliamentary activities and he also made sure that Chamisa would represent him in all key meetings. If you check very well on the recent trip to the US, it was Chamisa who represented Tsvangirai in the US. People like Gutu may make a lot of noise for now, but in politics it is all about numbers, Chamisa may have enemies within the movement but he still maintain a good number to outdo all other potential guys. Most of these top brass guys are sitting on the fence ready to jump on to the successful faction. There are two main factions in the movement, one led by Chamisa, and one led by Khupe although people like Mudzuri and Komichi and other key guys are neutral, it is most likely that the Chamisa faction will sail through at the end of the day.

Tinashe Eric Muzamhindo writes in his personal capacity as the head of Southern Institute of Policy Analysis and Research – SIPAR TRUST, which is responsible for policy analysis and research. He is also an academic and researcher. He holds a BA, MA from Solusi University, and he also holds a Masters of Development Studies from University of Lusaka, Zambia. He is currently enrolled at University of KwaZulu Natal University in South Africa (PhD in Development Studies). He is also an advisor to many financial and political institutions within and outside Zimbabwe. He can be contacted at southerninstitutepar@gmail.com.