NTJWG warns of possible instability after polls

The National Transitional Justice Working Group (NTJWG) has warned that Zimbabwe risks descending into violence following the 2018 elections unless urgent preventive measures are put into place.

In a Pre-election Briefing press release NTJWG warned that the 2018 elections have all the elements necessary for violence. NTJWG, a platform of 46 civil society organisations has been the lead voice in the campaign to operationalise the National Peace and Reconciliation Commission (NPRC) since 2014.

NTJWG Chairperson Alec Muchadehama said as the momentum rises, the tensions are rising as well, creating fears of social unrest and protest in the days ahead.

"This situation raises transitional justice questions that we beg the nation to reflect on," said Muchadehama. "We raise some red flags as we believe we are on the road to a disastrous election that has a high violence potential in the aftermath. These issues, we believe can only be ignored at a great risk."

The organisation pointed the military factor, loss of confidence in the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) and the judiciary, the legacy of contested elections and the increasing violence, hate and inflammatory speech as the main factors contributing to possible instability.

"The election is being held after the November 17 2017 military coup which overthrew Robert Mugabe and ushered in a strong military element in key government positions," said Muchadehama. "This is a situation that a good number of Zimbabweans feel is a threat to democracy."

He said military element, now in government, has gone on to make pronouncements to the effect that the upcoming elections are a conclusion of the 'Operation Restore Legacy'. He said such statements when coupled with the admission by the ZEC that 15% of its staff are from the military, are cause for concern.

Muchadehama condemend statements by both the opposition and the ruling Zanu PF to the effect that they will not accept an outcome which does not favour them as dangerous.

Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) had a press conference on July 4 where they were asked if they would handover power in the event of an opposition victory and they said they will follow the constitution.

NTJWG said this is not an assurance of neutrality since in November 2017 the military removed Robert Mugabe in a military coup while waiving the constitution.

The group said ZEC has contributed to the fluidity of the situation by displaying partiality in the manner it has handled the elections.

Muchadehama said that attempts by stakeholders at dispute resolution have been met with unmitigated arrogance that displays an unwillingness to ensure peaceful resolution of disputes. The group said referring matters to the courts is not a solution as many people have no confidence in the independence of the judiciary.

"The collapse of confidence in both ZEC and the judiciary is a recipe for disaster. History teaches us that where people lose confidence in the institutions that are supposed to help them, they usually take the law into their own hands." said Muchadehama.

He said Zimbabwe cannot afford another contested electoral outcome and urged the leadership of political parties to quickly activate a mediation process and not wait for bloodshed for them to then take action.

"We are concerned that there has been no investment in a comprehensive dispute resolution mechanism to ensure that the concerns of the stakeholders are not just 'swept under the bridge' for the future to deal with." Muchadehama said.

"Responsible leaders have an obligation to resolve disputes peacefully today and not tomorrow. With sufficient maturity, we can avoid another disputed election and ensure that we break the legacy of contested elections. Contested elections are a recipe for instability in the not so distant future."