'2023 elections likely to be unfair'

A LOCAL think-tank, the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU), says the upcoming elections are unlikely to be different from previous ones held under the Robert Mugabe era, which were underlined by violence and weaponisation of the youth by political elites.

Zimbabwe's previous elections have mainly been characterised by political violence since the days of the late former president Robert Mugabe.

While President Emmerson Mnangagwa's regime has been trying to distance itself from the excesses of the Mugabe era, reality has been knocking, with research showing the shrinking of democratic space since 2017, when he came into power through a military coup.

According to the RAU report titled: "What will be different in the 2023 elections?" by Larisa Chikanya, elections are not likely to be different from the old regime.

"The quality of elections has come under increased scrutiny in recent decades. As the most visible expression of democracy, polling day presents an opportunity for the legal contestation of political power.

"Yet, elections are often contentious and regularly fall short of ‘free and fair' status. Given that fear and intimidation may have been used to prevent voters from casting their ballots, many case studies as well as anecdotal evidence suggest that electoral violence has a suppressive effect on voter turnout. This is not new to Zimbabwe.

"Polarisation is on the rise, trust in elected officials and between voters is declining, and frustration with a perceived inability of democracy to deliver for citizens is intensifying tensions around, and the stakes of, elections," said RAU in the report.

RAU said fear and intimidation are likely to be used in the next election as has been the case in past years.

"The quality of elections has come under increased scrutiny in recent decades. As the most visible expression of democracy, polling day presents an opportunity for the legal contestation of political power.

"Given that fear and intimidation may have been used to prevent voters from casting their ballots, many case studies, as well as anecdotal evidence, suggest that electoral violence has a suppressive effect on voter turnout. This is not new to Zimbabwe.

"No true democracy heedlessly invades the rights of its citizens and represses people's thoughts and actions, their ability to speak their minds, and their ability to organise. Only a despot would resort to intimidation and force, silence legitimate opposition, and turn public security forces into tools of oppression.

Democracy withers wherever citizens wait for the late-night knock on the door, where they rightly fear arbitrary arrest and imprisonment," read part of the report.

RAU also said the country's political culture characterised by thr trampling of human rights is likely to affect the elections.

"Zimbabwe has a long history of a one-party and dominant political party where politics and economics have been conflated. As a result, politics in Zimbabwe has been exclusive, intolerant of opposition, and militarised.

"Furthermore, many of the socio-economic and political benefits of democracy have yet to be fully realised among large parts of the population. Therefore, the stakes at elections become high and the electoral contests tend to be perceived as a zero-sum game.

"Therefore, winning an election has become a matter of survival for the competing parties, and more importantly for the communities. This is true for the latter because the perpetrators of violence are never held to account by the law, not only do they remain influential in the communities in which they commit violence, they constantly threaten and use intimidation as a mechanism to remain in control," according to the report.

RAU said the election period is also likely to see weaponisation of the youth by the elite for political gain.  

"Furthermore, the resuscitation of the National Youth Service programme after years of not being operational before elections is quite worrying, especially considering the controversies around it during the 1st Republic. The programme's purpose was supposedly ‘to transform and empower youths for nation building through life skills training and leadership development'.

"The trainees were allegedly used for political purposes, especially in rural and peri-urban areas, and linked to election-related violence, including sexual abuse and torture. There is great concern that, like its predecessor, the revived programme would be more likely primarily provide boots on the ground for the security sector and the ruling party ahead of the 2023 elections," reads part of the report.