Treasury posts ZiG3,46bn surplus in first 4 months

The Treasury has recorded a surplus of ZiG3.46 billion during the first four months of the 2025 fiscal year, driven by disciplined cost containment and punctual debt servicing.

While this surplus falls short of the ZiG7.18 billion originally budgeted - resulting in a negative variance of 26 percent - it nonetheless marks a commendable start amid challenging economic conditions.

Total expenditures to April 2025 stood at ZiG18.2 billion, just 1 percent below the planned ZiG18.35 billion, reflecting stringent control over spending. Compensation of employees was maintained at ZiG8.47 billion, 4 percent under budget, highlighting efforts to keep the payroll lean without compromising essential services.

Interest payments on public debt, however, exceeded the budgeted ZiG311 million, reaching ZiG362.9 million. Despite this, the timely servicing of debt is expected to strengthen creditor confidence in the Treasury's fiscal management.

Social benefit payouts closely aligned with projections at ZiG2.1 billion, against a budget of ZiG2 billion.

A standout performer was non-tax revenue, which surged to ZiG1.8 billion - triple the ZiG0.6 billion target - outperforming budget estimates by ZiG1.2 billion. Senior fiscal analyst Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi credited this to innovative revenue diversification strategies, including leveraging asset dividends and regulatory fees.

In contrast, value added tax (VAT) collections reached ZiG5.6 billion, slightly trailing the ZiG6.4 billion forecast, while excise duties came in at ZiG2.6 billion, 15 percent below the ZiG3.1 billion target. These shortfalls reflect subdued consumption and energy price volatility but have been largely offset by gains in non-tax revenue and disciplined spending.

Total comprehensive income - which factors in other gains and losses - totalled ZiG21.65 billion, compared to a budgeted ZiG27.95 billion, leaving a negative variance of ZiG6.3 billion.

Financial commentator Shaun Kadange praised the Treasury's rigorous expenditure review and timely debt payments as key factors behind the surplus.

"Prudent cost management and real-time monitoring have kept spending steady," Kadange noted. "Timely interest payments preserve the nation's creditworthiness and prevent costly budget overruns."

He cautioned, however, that reliance on one-off non-tax gains cannot replace sustainable growth in core tax revenues. "A focus on boosting domestic consumption and formal sector activity is vital for a resilient fiscal outlook," Kadange advised.

Ms Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi highlighted the need to balance fiscal discipline with efforts to raise disposable incomes to drive economic growth.

"Selective wage adjustments could catalyse aggregate demand without undermining fiscal prudence," she said, pointing to the government's 6 percent growth target.

Looking ahead, the Treasury aims to sustain its dual approach: maintaining strict expenditure control while expanding revenue streams. The upcoming mid-year budget review in July will offer an opportunity to adjust forecasts amid global commodity price fluctuations and domestic policy shifts.

If the first four months are any indication, the Treasury has laid a solid foundation for a year-end surplus through credible fiscal management and innovative revenue strategies. The challenge remains to convert early gains into durable, inclusive economic growth supported by a broader and more resilient tax base.